2017 Financial Resolutions

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Odd Day on Thursday Gives Warning
Thursday was an interesting day in the stock market. All of the major indices were up nicely in the morning. And while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 continued making new highs into the afternoon, the S&P 400, Russell 200 and Dow Industrials did not with the first two seeing real weakness during the afternoon. […]

Bulls Are Resilient
On May 8th, I first started discussing what I saw as a skewed risk/reward ratio with 500 possible points of upside and 1000 points possible on the downside. Over the years when there was a decent chance for stocks to decline, I often referred to it as a window of opportunity that stays open for […]

Missing the Excitement
While nothing has really changed regarding the risk and reward for stocks, the bulls have moved the major indices a bit further than I thought they would after last week’s one day drubbing. Frankly, I thought we would see a few days up and then rollover for another decline towards the lower end of my […]

Bears Whipped into a Frenzy. Half Way There
I find it mildly amusing that after a 3000 point rally in the Dow, bears and pundits have been whipped into a frenzy because the Dow went down 370 points in one day. Talk about overly dramatic and idiotic. The bull market ain’t over folks, the same line I have said every day, week, month, […]

Impeachment? Another Watergate? What Will the Bears Say Next?
With yet another story “breaking” about President Trump, the markets seem to finally care, even if it’s only a short-term pullback which I believe it is. Day after day, week after week and month after month, there has been an ongoing deluge of negative stories in the press about Trump, whether deserved or not. The […]

Reality over Rhetoric
The markets begin the week with little changed from last week. Volatility remains absurdly low, but remember, regardless of what you hear on the financial shows, markets do not go down just because vol is low. And bull markets do not end with vol so low. The major stock market indices are not in sync. […]

Lines in the Sand Drawn
We saw a fairly strong selling wave on Thursday during the first hour of trading. However, by mid afternoon, the bulls stepped right back up and recouped all of the losses before closing modestly lower. Their resilience continues. Given how most of the major indices are positioned, the bulls need to score new highs sooner […]

Bulls Still in Control Over Long-Term
Let’s continue on the same theme I started the other day, risk versus reward. While I firmly believe that the bull market remains alive and fairly healthy, I do not like the risk/reward right here. My view is that Dow 21,600 is the upside ceiling while downside risk looks to be 20,000 or even a […]

Sell The News
Not much has changed in the stock market since last week as volatility continues to be historically low. While the S&P 500 poked above the recent range on Friday, the rest of the major indices weren’t exactly in line. That’s not a big deal. Small caps looked like they were getting ready to step up, […]

Looking for Mr. Volatility
Greetings from 39,000 feet as I am on my way home from the west coast. A quick visit in Scottsdale followed by my annual industry trade association conference in San Diego and I cannot wait to get home! If all goes well, that was my last trip to CA this year. It’s just brutal getting […]

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