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MOST RECENT BLOG POSTS:


Is the Rally Over???
Here is a very quick and timely update to start the week. Time to be on our toes. I will have more tomorrow or Thursday, but there may be a change afoot. Stocks did not end the day well on Friday. No big deal. They were up slightly but gave up big gains. That’s normally […]

Two Scenarios Updated. Put Up or Shut Up
I had hoped to have a full canaries in the coal mine done today, but I failed (or lied as some could say) as I am only half done. It’s okay, though. Stocks are behaving exactly according to the footprints I first offered 10 days ago, making life a little easier, for now. And regardless, […]

A Price Pattern NEVER Seen at a Bull Market Peak
As I am working on a full canaries in the coal mine to offer substantiation that the bull market is not over, below you can see the recent all-time high in stocks. On January 26, stocks closed not only at an all-time high, but at their highest level of the day, the top of the […]

A Friday Bottom Is In!
People seemed to like starting with the conclusion, so let’s do it again. Stocks put in a short-term bottom on Friday Yes, that happens on Fridays S&P 500 successfully revisited Monday’s overnight low Volatility declined even as stocks were lower Just as I was hitting send last Friday, the stock market began to rescue itself […]

What If I am Wrong?!?!
A very long market week is coming to an end. Stocks could not hold on to the rally on Wednesday morning which led to spillover selling on Thursday that accelerated sharply into the close. After a decent morning for the bulls, sellers came in again into lunch on Friday and it looks like the market […]

Stocks Following Map So Far. Range Established for Feb. Dow 27,000
My last two updates focused on the stock market’s mini crash and the reliable historical pattern that typically ensues, including what I saw as the somewhat predicable Turnaround Tuesday where stocks reverse early losses after selling off sharply on Friday and Monday. I was looking for that “woosh” lower early Tuesday and while down 600 […]

1987 Again? Post Crash Playbook. Turnaround Tuesday
I am going to do something different today and start with my conclusion and work somewhat backwards. The bull market remains intact and fresh all-time highs should be seen next quarter. Buying into sharp downdrafts, while emotionally very difficult, should be rewarded over the intermediate-term. Like a snowball rolling downhill, whatever this decline is going […]

Post Mini Crash Stock Market Playbook. All-Time Highs Around the Corner
The Dow Jones Industrial Average “crashed” 666 points on Friday, at least that’s how the media portrayed it. And it’s on track to open another 1%+ lower this morning. In 1987, 666 points would have been more than 25%. In 2018, that’s all of 2.5%. 2.5% moves used to mostly occur monthly and certainly quarterly. […]

And Stocks Go Down AGAIN
More than a week ago, I started discussing the idea that a trading range was setting in with modestly lower and higher prices as the range. For a few session, stocks blew right past that idea. Before today, the stock market had very, very quietly pulled back for four sessions without much fanfare except for […]

Fed Statement Day Disappoints. Defensive Groups Lead.
Fed statement day was certainly atypical and a volatile affair. Early strength was sold into which accelerated after the 2pm announcement. And Just when it looked like the bears would turn the day into a rout, the 3pm bell rung and the bulls came roaring back to life. What was most interesting was that while […]


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