The 2019 Fearless Forecast from Paul Schatz


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MOST RECENT BLOG POSTS:


Investor Behavior is now Very Dangerous
It seems like every single day stocks up higher, pullback and then rally into the close. It’s been one of those truly historic runs since December 3 where you would be hard-pressed to find any weakness. Those heavily invested are just sitting back, enjoying the gains and smiling. Those on the outside looking in are […]

That Was Quick
On Monday I wrote about a low risk opportunity for the bears with very well defined risk. Market sentiment had reached an historic extreme as investors had become beyond bullish and giddy. They are downright greedy. Market greed isn’t corrected quickly nor painlessly. It normally takes a sharp decline in stocks to create some fear […]

An Opportunity for the Bears
Since mid-November, I have often discussed sentiment in the stock market. Plainly put, investors have been very confident to the point of being greedy and giddy to an historic extreme. We last saw that behavior in January 2018 which led to a 13% stock market decline to resolve the condition. Of course, there were other […]

Early January Indicator Calls for More Upside While Oil & Gold Hit Peaks
With the much ballyhooed Santa Claus Rally out of the way which I really reduced to meaningless in the grand scheme of things, the media has turned its attention to the Early January Indicator (EJI). As Yale Hirsch of Stock Trader’s Almanac fame discovered, as goes the first five days of January, so goes the […]

Santa Called. Bulls Excited on Wall. Could There be a Fall?
Although it wasn’t much for the bulls to celebrate, Santa Claus did call to Broad & Wall. The last five days of 2019 plus the first two days of 2020 finished slightly in the green for the &P 500 by 0.34%. The media would have you believe that this 7 day trading period now holds […]

A Little Taste for the Bears – Santa Still in Play
Stocks roared out of the gate to begin 2020 and it certainly felt like the masses were buying hand over fist. However, let’s remember that this is a holiday-shortened week and I don’t think everyone is back to their normal schedules. With stocks closing at their highs for the day, it’s very unlikely that any […]

My New Year’s Message
With the end of 2019 signaling not only year-end but also the conclusion of a decade, I am reminded of something my grandmother said to me every year sine I was 7. Besides letting me know not to waste my younger, more active years, she always told me that the older you get, the faster […]

3224 the Key Number for Santa
Friday’s action in the stock market wasn’t the victory the bulls were claiming. After another higher opening, the bears made a tiny stand and managed to fend off higher prices for a few hours. That’s about all you can say besides there were more stocks declining than advancing. I know; I am grasping at straws […]

All Looks Terrific But Be Careful
I hope everyone had a great Christmas, Hanukah, Kwanzaa and Boxing Day! As I wrote about the other day, the Santa Claus Rally and last five days of the year are not the absolute layup the pundits keep predicting. In strong years, the last five days trade is not even a coin flip, however, Santa […]

The Masses are Wrong! The Truth About Santa and the Last 5 Days of 2019
Let me begin by wishing all those who celebrate a Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukah! Historically, the last two weeks of December is one of the most favorable times of the year and that lasts through early January. The traditional Santa Claus Rally (SCR) is scheduled to begin on Christmas Eve and last until the […]


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