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What Happened to the Stock Market Melt Up?
700+ points of Dow decline on Thursday surely did change sentiment quickly. And while stock market bottoms do occur on Fridays (13% of the time), contrary to popular belief, the final low is unlikely to be today. Earlier this week, I discussed how all three of my offered scenarios were breaking down as they all […]

***SPECIAL Fed Update Rates Are Going Up Again & Then Some***
Stock Market Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Over the past few meetings, many of the strongest trends muted although the system […]

Scenarios Breaking Down
For the past 6 weeks, I have offered what has now amounted to three plausible scenarios for where stocks are headed over the coming three to four months. While the short-term ups and downs varied, all paths from my perspective ended up at new highs for the major stock market indices. Nothing has changed in […]

Nasty, Ugly Reversal
Stock market action on Tuesday printed a classic nasty and ugly reversal when looking at the charts. Stocks opened at the highs for the day and closed at their lows. Additionally, the move from high to low completely enveloped the previous day’s activity. While this does look really bad on a chart and people will […]

2018 Looking A Lot Like 1997
As you know, I have been hanging my hat on two scenarios for the market since early February. I updated those yesterday. While both scenarios still lead to Dow 27,000 by the end of Q2, I searched long and hard for further evidence to support my thesis. I love finding market analogs, but there haven’t […]

Im Back! Dow Still Going to 27,000
I want to start off by thanking everyone for the overwhelming support, compassion and number of condolences on my dad’s passing. It has been a difficult few weeks both pre and post funeral and Shiva, but my family and I were tremendously comforted by so many people coming out of the woodwork with calls, cards, […]

Earlier this week, my dad, Richard “Dick” Schatz, passed away. He had been sick for a while, but just kept beating the odds with some amazing clinical trials at Memorial Sloan Kettering. If you called the office over the years, every once in a while he would answer our phone and engage in conversation with […]

Breakout Alert for Stocks. Yields NOT Peaking
After Friday’s dominance by the bulls and the very early Monday morning follow through, the bulls are on the verge of negating what has been my preferred scenario and instead opting for scenario number two below. Since a called the bottom a few weeks ago, I drew the two horizontal blue lines on the chart […]

Stock Market Approaching Critical Juncture. Eyes Open!
It’s Friday of a holiday-shortened week and even more so for me as I spent Tuesday and Wednesday in New Orleans with some fellow UCONN crazies eating, enjoying a few adult beverages, playing golf and watching the women dismantle Tulane, my wife’s alma mater. It was a good break from winter in New England, but […]

Is the Rally Over???
Here is a very quick and timely update to start the week. Time to be on our toes. I will have more tomorrow or Thursday, but there may be a change afoot. Stocks did not end the day well on Friday. No big deal. They were up slightly but gave up big gains. That’s normally […]

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