2017 Financial Resolutions

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MOST RECENT BLOG POSTS:


***Special Fed Day Alert. No Rate Hike But Changes to Balances Sheet Announced***
Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Seven meetings ago was one of the rare times where the models strongly called for a […]

Semis Breaking Out But Some Concern Out There
Stocks begin the new week on decent footing yet I remain of the belief that strength is a better selling opportunity than a buying one for now. While the underpinnings are not suggestive of recession, bear market nor 10%+ stock market correction, I continue to see evidence that a mid single digit pullback may be […]

Semis Strong, Shouldering the Burden. Other Sectors Stepping Up.
The stock market continues to quietly drift higher, at least on the surface. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have seen new highs this week while the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 look constructive but still well below their peaks. I do expect them to play catch up and see blue skies before any […]

Banks Warning, Hold Key to Bull Market
Since late July I have been in the camp looking for a trading range with a mild/modest pullback. I remain of that opinion today. Should stocks gather themselves and score fresh new highs this month, I think it will be a good opportunity for the  nimble  to sell for a modest move lower into October. […]

Remembering 9-11
September 11th seems to sneak up on me each year. With summer vacation, kids going back to school, Labor Day and the start of the NFL season, it feels like I wake up and realize 9-11 is either the next day or very close by. We all remember where we were and what we did […]

The Misconception About September’s Ire
Academics and the media do a pretty good job of warning the investing public of September’s historically poor performance. In fact, many investors become alarmed each year as August comes to an end and the various dire studies are paraded around. After all, since 1928, September is by far the worst month of the year […]

Small Caps, Semis & Junk Leading. Banks Looking Sick
Stocks ended last week on firm footing as the bounce saw four nice days. With more North Korea tensions in the air, it will be interesting to see if the stock market finally cares or just uses this as an excuse to open mildly lower. Very quietly as I have mentioned before, the Russell 2000 […]

Crosscurrents Abound. Enough for Bulls & Bears
Stocks continue the bounce they began two weeks ago and the same one I have been discussing. Tuesday was the day where the acceleration started. That could be slowing today. The NASDAQ 100 sits an all-time high but it’s lonely up there. The Dow and S&P 500 are within striking distance but the ever improving […]

Q2 GDP Baby. Stocks Like It!
This morning, the government reported that the “second look” at Q2 GDP grew by 3%, higher than the original 2.6% first reported. 3% is even higher than any of my most bullish models and it continues to show that the US economy is re-accelerating higher this year.I would love to hear from all those people […]

Insurance Sector Around Disasters
If any sub-sector should be impacted by disasters, you would think it would be the insurance group. Similar to what I did above, let’s look at how the Dow Jones Insurance Index behaved around the events. Sandy is first and you can see that it was already pulling back when Sandy hit and continued to […]


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