The 2019 Fearless Forecast from Paul Schatz


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MOST RECENT BLOG POSTS:


Powell’s Much Ado About Nothing While High Beta Percolates
Markets were on pause mode on Thursday as everyone awaited Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech from Jackson Hole on Friday morning. Most of the stories I have read and media interviews I have seen had a very binary outcome from Powell’s speech. It was “all or none”. I don’t agree. I think he is going […]

Bulls Look to Trap Bears – Semis the Key
The bulls had the chance. They could have really squeezed the bears. But they weren’t totally ready just yet. Tuesday’s afternoon selloff looked on the ugly side, but in reality it just kept the stock market in the same range it has been in all month. I want to see a daily close in the […]

Bulls Cede Control from Bears
Friday was a very good day for the bulls on the heels of a little reversal on Thursday that pierced the recent lows on the Dow, S&P 400 and Russell 2000. While I would have preferred the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 to have joined that party to run the weak money out of the […]

Bear Clowns Wrong, AGAIN – Dow 28,000 on the Way
The news backdrop certainly isn’t good. Trump adds tariffs. China threatens retaliation. Hong Kong protests. China readying to “invade”. Germany and Italy in recession. Yield curve inverts in U.S. Recession fears explode higher. All of this sounds so bad. Like there is no hope, just darkness. Yet stocks are merely 6.5% from an all-time high. […]

I HATE Tariffs
I hate tariffs! I hate tariffs! I hate tariffs! PHEW! Now that I got that out of the way, I can get down to business. I really hate the idea of tariffs. The free market should be the ultimate arbiter, absolutely not the global governments trying to protect certain industries. And as I have said […]

Nope. Not a Bear Market
As I continue to write about, while much or most of the price damage should be over, day to day volatility is not. Worries have shifted from tariffs and a trade war to civil unrest in Hong Kong which is also associated with China. Remember, regardless of the situation, there is always, always, always “major” […]

Stocks Thrashing Around for a Bottom But Other Markets Hold Clues
Volatility happens in both directions. That has been the theme all week. Anyone who has bought strength or sold weakness has been left holding the bag. And I don’t think volatility is over, but much or most of the price damage should be. Worst case, as I have written, Dow 25,000 or so could be […]

Hold on to Your Hats
As you know, volatility rarely builds slowly. It typically happens all at once. I went to bed last night and saw overnight trading indicating a lower open by 100 Dow points. When I woke up, that had shifted to up 100 Dow points. I showered, got dressed and ate breakfast. The Dow was then indicated […]

Here We Go Again
It’s been a tough three days for the bulls that is about to get worse as China retaliated for Trump’s tariffs with a series of their own. Their currency, the yuan, also fell below what analysts have deemed “critical” levels. It has long been argued that by weakening their currency, China has been able to […]

Economic Reports Overshadowed by Trump & Powell
It’s been quite a week! Lost in the Fed and tariffs headlines has been three important economic reports that lead to a conclusion as clear as mud. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index cratered to under 45, signaling trouble in the manufacturing sector. However, this number does have the importance it once did as the economy […]


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