The 2019 Fearless Forecast from Paul Schatz

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More Good News as the Trading Range Breaks Higher
As I mentioned in Friday’ post, not much happened last week after Monday’s sharply higher open. Stocks essentially treaded water and bullishly digested the gains. You could also say that has been the case since mid-April in the major indices with the exception of the NASDAQ 100 which is in a world of its own. […]

Trading Range Showing Signs of Wearing Thin
Stocks had a great week so far. However, it is interesting to note that 100% of the gain was before the market even opened on Monday. Since Monday’s open, the Dow and S&P 500 are right around the flat line. Most of the major indices have been coiling up for a bigger move. Usually, that […]

Moderna Has Some “Splaining” to Do
Lots to cover, but I will try to brief. Monday’s huge rally saw 90% of the volume going into stocks that were up on the day. That reversed the previous 90% down day last week and is another bullish sign for the intermediate-term. Interestingly, the most beaten down sectors led the rally. In other words, […]

Clorox Wipes. The World is Fixed.
I had about half of today’s post written early this morning before finding out that Target had a fresh supply of Clorox wipes in stock. So, I hurried over to grab a three-pack along with some snacks for the kids. When I came back, I saw that the economy was back to normal, COVID had […]

Bears Get Their Opportunity as Trading Range Continues
I published a new video yesterday with three main topics. Our model’s view of the stock market. Warren Buffet and Berkshire’s underperformance. Why the stock market has been rallying with the economy in a tailspin. As you know, my theme has been that stocks are in a trading range bound by Dow 25,000 and 22,000. […]

Tech Rocking. Junk Struggling. Range Continues.
As I wrote about on Friday, almost every piece of really bad economic news has been met with a surge in buying, leaving a lot of people to scratch their heads. I am not that smart to understand why, but I always write that it’s not so much what the news actually is, but how […]

Bad News is Good News for Stocks
Stocks are up this week as Friday is about to kick off. Yesterday, we learned than another 3+ million Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits. Today, we learned that the unemployment rate for April skyrocketed to 14.7% with 20,000,000 jobs being “lost” in April. Those numbers are unfathomably unthinkable. I didn’t do the homework, […]

Trading Range Continues. Bonds Thumped. Bulls to Win Today.
As I have been writing about, until proven otherwise which would mean I am wrong, the major stock indices with the exception of the NASDAQ 100 hit a ceiling last week and appear to be in a trading range bound by Dow 25,000 and roughly 22,000. On the S&P 500 that amounts to 2930 and […]

Warren Buffet Hangover as Bulls Prepare
The bears had a nice close to last week and to begin the new month. I posted a number of studies regarding May and the next 6 months on Friday. The overall theme is that the longer we look out into the future, the more positive the studies. The shorter we look, at least as […]

May Begins With a Number of Studies as the Bulls Get Knocked a Bit
On Friday, the stock market technically begins the sometimes “dreaded” sell in May and go away period which last until October 31. This seasonal trend has a questionable track record the more recent you look. However, in years where January through April has been down already, its record has merit. I will touch more on […]

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