01/12/17 - Dow 20,000 will be 'a rally you can sell'
Read more Paul Schatz 2017/16 interviews & commentary with:
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Snap Most Popular Kid In Grade School, But Will It Last Throughout Life?
Author: Mark Melin Date: Mar 06, 2017 Publication: ValueWalk Link to Article
Investors love Snap Inc (NYSE:SNAP). After the stock price surged over 44% in its New York Stock Exchange debut Thursday, it climbed another 11% on Friday to end at $27.09 with a market value of nearly $30 billion. But is the company open for a short or is it a long-term hold?
After losing $500 million in 2016 and faced with corporate governance challenges — shareholders will generally not have voting rights and co-founder and CEO Evan Spiegel and co-founder and CTO Robert Murphy own a total of 40% of Snap's market cap and 89% of the voting rights — investors nonetheless snapped up the shares. The concept of democracy apparently isn't in vogue, but one trend — tech IPO investors having early valuations in excess of actual profits - remains.
Snap had a strong revenue generation year in 2016, improving sales 7 times to bring in $405 million. This could be one reason Snaps roadshow to institutional investors was reported to have attracted such strong interest. the Snap offering came to market with a bang amid record stock market highs, post-election optimism and little supply of IPOs coming to market.
"With the lack of recent exciting IPOs and SNAP’s IPO a constant media topic, we expect that demand for this IPO will be high," Ihor Dusaniwsky, Head of Research, S3 Partners, said in a note to clients. "There is a strong chance that the initial IPO rally will continue into a follow-up rally, which will spur even more short demand."
Investors could be eying Facebook, valued at $400 billion, or Google, at $600 billion, and think Snap has a similar long runway ahead. Those legendary tech firms could also provide a challenge by adopting Snap's technology and muting their growth.
"Clearly, the Snap (IPO) is representative of a frothy environment," Heritage Capital Chief Investment Officer Paul Schatz told the Fox Business News show "Wall Street Week," calling it "almost garbage" as he expressed concerns over potential competition to emerge and questioned their revenue path. What Schatz didn't much analize was the democracy angle.
Snap is asking investors to give up accountability rights and lock-in their relationship status.
Democracy can be messy and inefficient, no doubt. But Snap investors seem to think a company run without accountability to shareholders isn’t an issue and should be locked into a relationship that could get abusive without checks and balances.
Snap co-founders are hoping to convince investors that they not having a voice in the company isn’t a bad thing. And they want 25% of IPO buyers to agree to an extended lock-up period of one year, just to make sure they don’t get jumpy. Such efforts are designed at reduce stock selling, which impacts market liquidity.
Dusaniwsky, for his part, looks at recent tech IPOs and relates it to the Snap liquidity.
"Stock borrow availability will be tight initially and stock borrow fees should start around the 25% fee range," he wrote. He thinks if settlement issues emerge early on in the IPO process, stock availability will be limited in lending programs for short selling and borrow rates could increase. "If, as expected, SNAP's stock price rallies, short demand would increase in tandem and short interest would quickly climb to 25% of the initial offering - pushing total short interest well above the $1 billion mark, and stock borrow levels into the 30% to 50% fee range."
There are recent IPOs that Dusaniwsky thinks could point to Snap’s short interest path.
"Twilio Inc.’s IPO in June 2016 provides insight into SNAP’s preliminary short activity," he wrote. TWLO’s short interest climbed to $80 million in the first week after its IPO, which was 20% of the initial offering, and three weeks after the IPO short interest continued to increase.
Three months later short interest peaked along with the stock price. By the end of the summer, almost half of the stock was being borrowed to cover short sales, he noted.
Looking back at recent IPOs, including Twilio, Nutanix (NTNX US), Planet Fitness (PLNT US), Athene Holding (ATH US) and Shake Shack (SHAK US), to use as examples of post-IPO short interest, we see the results are binary in nature. Either short demand continues to increase in the name if the stock's price has a significant follow-up rally in the stock after the initial post-IPO run-up with borrow supply tightening and borrow rates spiking into the 20% to 50% fee range. If the secondary rally is absent or muted, which allows short interest to either decrease or stabilize, borrow availability will increase over time and borrow rates will remain within the 1% to 3% fee range
For those considering short selling, Dusaniwsky has a message that speaks to the recent market run-up as well: "SNAP short sellers will certainly need conviction in their trades."
Should investors continue to buy into the Trump rally?
Author: Paul Schatz Date: Mar 03, 2017 Publication: FOX Business Link to Article
What Fed rate hikes mean for retirees
Author: Jeff Benjamin Date: Feb 24, 2017 Publication: Investment News Link to Article
With the Federal Reserve widely expected to hike interest rates in March for the first of what could be four hikes this year, financial advisers will finally have some good news for their retired clients.
As rates slowly move higher, the safest and shortest-term investments, such as certificates of deposit and money market funds, will start to pay higher yields. Finally.
That's the good news.
The bad news is, those short-term rates will likely top out at 1.75% this year, and it will probably be years before Fed policy gets them anywhere near the 4% range that most fixed-income investors crave.
"Our expectation is in a lower-growth environment we'll anticipate a lower than average yields, and lower than average return from bonds in general," said Dirk Hofschire, senior vice president of asset allocation research at Fidelity Investments. "The market is expecting a faster pace of rate hikes going forward, but still not a fast pace."
Since pushing rates to near zero immediately following the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed hiked a quarter of a percentage point in both December 2015 and December 2016.
A Fed rate-hike cycle, even a meager one, is "potentially good news for older clients, but it depends on how old they are and what level of assets are dependent on interest rates to generate income and value," said Kashif Ahmed, president of American Private Wealth. "We will likely get back to normal in terms of interest rates, but that will take years."
While many retirees, and other investors sitting in the most Fed-dependent fixed-income investments like money market funds, will enjoy slightly higher yields in a rising rate environment, the broader fixed-income market may get more challenging for financial advisers.
Depending on a bond's duration, a rising-rate cycle could have a punishing impact on some bond portfolios.
For example, a bond with a five-year duration will decline by five percentage points in the event of a one-percentage-point rate hike.
The reality of bond math is the reason some advisers believe monetary policy has been on such a slow crawl, and will continue to be so.
"President Trump does not want the rates to go too crazy, which is why I think we will get just one hike this year," said Theodore Feight, owner of Creative Financial Design. "But with rates so low, I'm wondering at what level rates will start to have an impact on investor portfolios."
"Retired clients would get hurt badly if we got two or three rate hikes, because most retired clients have a very large amount of bonds in their portfolios," he added.
As an illustration of how longer-term bonds often move independently of the Fed's overnight rate, consider that in the months leading up to the quarter-point hike in December 2015 the yield on the 10-year Treasury went from 1.9% to 2.3%.
But as soon as the hike took effect, the 10-year yield began falling toward 1.6%.
"Interest rates move in 30- or 40-year cycles, and we just started a new cycle, so the next 30 or 40 years rates will be going up," said Paul Schatz, president of Heritage Capital Management.
"It won't be a good time for most fixed-income investors for a while," he added. "You get better yields but your principal keeps declining, and the only way to deal with that is a basic bond ladder."
Stocks and dollar plunge, gold breaks above $1,200
Author/Anchor: Alexis Christoforous Date: Jan 12, 2017 Publication: Yahoo Finance Link to Article
Stocks (^DJI, ^GSPC, ^IXIC) are selling off at the midday mark, with the major indices suffering their biggest loss so far in 2017. The financial sector (XLF) is leading the way down, while consumer staples (XLP) and utilities (XLU) are the least in the red. Alan Valdes, director of floor operations at Silverbear, joins us live from the New York Stock Exchange.
To discuss the other big stories of the day, Alexis Christoforous is joined by Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman and Paul Schatz, President & CIO at Heritage Capital.
Amazon to hire 100,000 full-time workers over next 18 months
Amazon is going on a hiring spree. Already one of the country’s top employers, with 180,000 workers, the e-commerce giant is announcing it will create 100,000 jobs over the next 18 months. These are full-time jobs with benefits and extra perks, like 95% payment for college tuition in certain fields.
AT&T chief meets with Trump about Time Warner deal
Donald Trump is meeting today at Trump Tower with Randall Stephenson, the CEO of AT&T. The topic (we assume) is AT&T’s proposed $85 billion dollar purchase of Time Warner. Back in October, Trump said he would block the merger because it “concentrated too much power in the hands of too few.”
Senate takes first step on road to repealing Obamacare
The Senate is voting early this morning to instruct committees to draft legislation to repeal the Obamacare by January 27. A big question is what repealing the Affordable Care Act will do to the US uninsured rate. It now stands at 10.9%—a record low since Gallup began tracking health coverage in 2008.
Dow 20,000 will be 'a rally you can sell,' market strategist says
Author/Anchor: Michelle Fox Date: Jan 12, 2017 Publication: CNBC Link to Article
Once the Dow Jones industrial average hits 20,000, don't expect momentum to power it even higher, market strategist Paul Schatz told CNBC on Thursday.
In fact, it's "a rally you can sell," the president of Heritage Capital said in an interview with "Closing Bell."
Stocks ended lower on Thursday, with the Dow Jones industrial average down about 63 points at 19,891.
The market has rallied since President-elect Donald Trump's victory in November, with investors pinning their hopes on tax cuts, less regulation and a pro-growth environment.
However, it has been going sideways for a month, Schatz pointed out.
"That shows we've got underlying strength," he said. "The rally's been on less stocks participating the last couple of weeks. We need a little bit more consolidation, digestion, maybe into halfway through earnings season."
He's confident that if Trump "stops tweeting" and let's Congress take over, a substantial conversation will occur.
"Then we can hit 21,000, maybe early second quarter," Schatz predicted.
Paul Schatz on Investing in 2017 and the Trump Effect
Author/Anchor: Tim Lammers Date: Jan 9, 2017 Publication: FOX 61
Financial expert Paul Schatz from Heritage Capital, LLC talks with Fox 61's Tim Lammers about investing goals for 2017, and how that, and the U.S. and world economies will change from a Donald Trump presidency.
(Aired on Fox 61's Good Day Connecticut on 1/9/17)
Financial tips for 2017
Author/Anchor: Elizabeth Hess, News 8 Producer Date: Jan 8, 2017 Publication: WTNH - NEWS 8 Link to Article
NEW HAVEN, Conn. (WTNH) — If you need help managing your money this year, we are giving you some financial tips for 2017.
The president of Heritage Capitol, Paul Schatz stopped by our station to explain what we can do all year long to help manage our money.
Paul says there are several things you can do:
1) Revisit personal risk tolerance
2) Rebalance 401K and other investment accounts
3) Sell winners
4) Increase 401K contribution
5) Create/update will
6) Update beneficiaries
7) Check credit report
8) Photograph inventory of home
9) Have plan to pay down debt, especially high interest credit card debt
10) Understand health insurance pros and cons
11) Organize key financial docs
12) Create emergency fund
13) Refinance mortgage
14) Create a budget
15) Travel abroad
16) Consolidate debt
17) Take a financial inventory
Why the end of the year is a great time to look over your finances
Author/Anchor: Tim Lammers Date: Dec 21, 2016 Publication: FOX 61 Link to Article
HARTFORD -- We're coming up on the end of the year, and it's a good time to look at your finances. Paul Schatz, President of Heritage Capital, stopped by FOX 61's Good Day Connecticut to talk about some tips. They include:
Defer as much income as you can to 2017
Accelerate deductible expenses
Increase retirement plan contributions
Increase charitable contributions
Realize net investment losses of $3000
Harvest tax losses
Don`t forget about required minimum distributions (RMDS)
Must advisers manage money?
Author: Jeff Benjamin Date: Dec 11 2016 Publication: Investment News Link to Article
The debate over outsourcing investment management — traditionally the cornerstone of financial advisers' work — is heating up an evolving industry
When it comes to outsourcing the investment management part of their business, Jon Ten Haagen and Krzysztof Garlewicz are of different minds.
Mr. Ten Haagen, founder and principal of Ten Haagen Financial Group, believes his clients are better off because he is outsourcing their portfolios to market experts.
“My job is to educate clients and hold their hands,” he said. “And to the other advisers who say I shouldn't be outsourcing, I tell them they're full of it. They're not trained to manage portfolios.”
Mr. Garlewicz disagrees.
“I'm not a fan of [outsourcing], because I believe in full transparency and also being clear about the services being provided,” said Mr. Garlewicz, owner of Prosperifi.
“Often times you'll see an adviser charging a client a fee and then either using a model or centralized portfolio that is pretty much what the robo-platforms are doing,” he added. “Seems like the old days where you have to roll up your sleeves and work is going away. If you're just managing the relationship, you're no longer an adviser, you're a relationship manager.”
Despite a logical connection between financial planning and investment management, advisers are moving away from managing client portfolios in favor of outsourcing. The 2016 Fidelity RIA Benchmarking Study found 27% of advisers are outsourcing at least a part of their portfolio management duties. The 2016 Northern Trust Study of Investment Management Outsourcing, conducted in partnership with InvestmentNews, found that 32% of RIA firms outsourced, while a 2016 TD Ameritrade white paper, “Outsourcing: A strategy for optimizing resources,” found that 58% of advisers outsourced the investment management function.
Given the increasing complexity and regulation facing the financial advice business, such as the Department of Labor's fiduciary rule for retirement advice, more advisers are at least considering outsourcing as an option.
Outsourcing of specific investment management functions
Source: 2016 TD Ameritrade white paper, “Outsourcing: A strategy for optimizing resources,”
Mark Germain, CEO of Beacon Wealth Management, has mostly resisted the tug toward outsourcing investment management. But he admits he has done some window-shopping.
Aside from certain difficult-to-access municipal bond categories, Mr. Germain said the numbers on outsourcing haven't been attractive enough for him yet.
“My job is to educate clients and hold their hands.”
—Jon Ten Haagen, founder and principal, Ten Haagen Financial Group
“It's not as inexpensive as it sounds,” he said. “And if somebody else is managing your client portfolios, it is very difficult to make changes if something happens in the market.”
“If you are an investment professional and you're outsourcing the investment management, you lose the ability to do some things you believe are necessary,” Mr. Germain said. “The outsourcing mentality is for people who do not have an investment background or inclination to do the work involved or the research.”
There is no shortage of companies willing to take over investment management duties for advisory firms. Custodians, turnkey asset management platforms (TAMPs) and robo-advisers make it increasingly inviting to just hand the investment management keys over to someone else.
Toss in the power of a finely crafted marketing pitch, and the question suddenly becomes, why not outsource?
“It's our focus to say that the real value an adviser adds is advice, because the investments are becoming commoditized,” said John Anderson, managing director of practice management solutions with SEI Advisor Network, one of the oldest TAMPs in the industry. SEI, which has worked with advisers for 24 years, now manages $55 billion for approximately 8,000 advisory firms.
“The difference between one large-cap fund and another will be negligible over the next 20 years,” Mr. Anderson added. “What I'm seeing as the value proposition for an adviser is their ability to do exactly what advisers do.”
When it comes to supporting the trend toward outsourced investment management, firms like SEI clearly have a dog in the fight. With that in mind, Mr. Anderson cites the latest iteration of outsourced investment management as another reason to outsource.
“If advisers are competing with the robo-platforms, they have to be prepared for 25 basis points in fees,” he said. “But if they're competing with things like behavioral finance, goals planning, retirement planning, then you can get paid for advice and charge 100 basis points.”
“If you're just managing the relationship, you're no longer an adviser, you're a relationship manager.”
—Krzysztof Garlewicz, owner, Prosperifi SEI, like most firms looking to handle the investment management part of a financial adviser's business, has surveyed, studied and analyzed the topic to the point of being able to make a solid case for outsourcing.
The firm's data show that client managers who focus more on business-building than investment management have an annual client growth rate of 5% and an annual asset growth rate of 18%. The investment managers, meanwhile, have a 3% annual client growth rate and an 11% annual asset growth rate.
Mr. Ten Haagen outsources clients to the SEI platform. They are charged approximately 1% of their assets under management for portfolio management, on top of which Mr. Ten Haagen charges his 1% asset-based fee.
Betterment, a six-year-old robo-advice platform, manages $6.2 billion for more than 200,000 consumers and works with 400 advisory firms.
“The rise is primarily a response to advances in technology and what you can do with it, but also because RIAs are comfortable with outsourcing,” said Cara Reisman, Betterment's head of distribution and business planning.
Betterment charges advisers a platform fee of 25 basis points, which compares to its direct-consumer rate of between 15 basis points and 35 basis points.
In terms of demand from advisers, Ms. Reisman said Betterment is seeing the full gamut.
“We're definitely seeing growth coming from a combination of advisers who used to managing the money in-house and realizing this is a great way to scale their business,” she said. “We're also seeing advisers come over from other outsource relationships. [While] we see some advisers using us as a core portfolio, others are using us for just small accounts, and others are using us for all their accounts.”
Eric Roberge, founder of Beyond Your Hammock, has been outsourcing his investment management functions since starting his advisory firm three years ago, and he doesn't see the point in doing it any other way.
“Inside broker-dealers this is what has always been done; the investment management is offloaded to the investment management department,” he said. “It gives you the ability to do other things to benefit the client, and it certainly can add fees because there's another layer, but I actually reduce my costs to cover that fee. If someone else is doing some of the work, I'm going to cut my fees.”
Then there is Paul Schatz, president of Heritage Capital Management, who describes himself as being in the “extreme minority” in still building client portfolios with individual securities. From his perspective, even allocating client assets to a mutual fund could be considered a form of outsourcing.
“You become an independent RIA because you don't want to sell products and receive a commission, but you also have to decide what your strength is in business,” he said.
Mr. Schatz will use some mutual funds and ETFs to gain exposure to certain niche markets, but he mostly relies on his own quantitative models to build and manage portfolios for clients.
Drawbacks and benefits of outsourcing investment management functions
Source: 2016 TD Ameritrade white paper, “Outsourcing: A strategy for optimizing resources,”
About a quarter of his $95 million under management is money he manages for other RIAs on an outsourced basis. So in that sense, he is benefitting from the outsourcing trend.
“For me, using another firm to manage assets would be a philosophical sea change, and I don't see myself doing that in the next 10 years,” he said. “I enjoy how my business is structured and I did it that way for a reason.”
In terms of serving the kinds of smaller clients that advisers often say are better served on outsourcing platforms, Mr. Schatz has found a simple solution.
“I just don't work with smaller clients,” he said. “But I will give smaller clients, especially younger people, a free portfolio allocation and offer to meet with them once a year.”
Stocks soar, US dollar sinks after Italian 'No' vote
Author: Alexis Christoforous Date: Dec 5, 2016 Publication: Yahoo! Finance Link to Article
Stocks (^DJI, ^GSPC, ^IXIC) are rallying at midday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average making a new all-time high. The energy (XLE) sector is leading, while utilities (XLU) are still in the red. Rich Barry, floor governor at the New York Stock Exchange joins us live from the New York Stock Exchange.
To discuss the other big stories of the day, Alexis Christoforous is joined by Kevin Mahn, CIO of Hennion & Walsh Asset Management and Paul Schatz, president & CIO at Heritage Capital LLC.
Taking stock of 2016 and looking ahead to 2017
Risk markets have been put through the ringer this year. Looking back on Brexit and the US presidential election, very few expected the Dow to be north of 19,000, and with the 10-year yield closing in on 2.5%.
Facebook talks with publishers on curated content feature: report
Let’s switch gears and talk about Facebook taking on Snapchat. Facebook is reportedly working on a new feature to showcase curated content from publishers directly in the News Feed. Business Insider says the feature is called “Collections” and is similar to Snapchat’s Discover section, which features news stories, videos and other content picked by media partners.
Social media ad spending to top newspapers by 2020: report
Facebook and other social media sites will take in more advertising spending than newspapers by 2020. That’s the projection in a new report out today from ad agency Zenith. It says spending on social media advertising is growing 20% a year and will top $50 billion in 2019.
The Trump trade
Author: Paul Schatz Date: Nov 23, 2016 Publication: FOX Business Link to Article
Leveraging portfolios to take advantage of Donald Trump's policies
Author: Jeff Benjamin Date: Nov 10 2016 Publication: Investment News Link to Article
Biotech, healthcare, banks and energy look to benefit
Protests in the streets and emotional outbursts notwithstanding, the craziest presidential election in modern history has officially come and gone.
What we're left with, at least from a financial services perspective, is the immediate, near-, and longer-term ripple effects.
The fact that futures trading on the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed the index down more than 800 points on election night as it became clear that Donald Trump was likely to defeat Hillary Clinton says plenty about the bubble in which too many pundits and pollsters exist.
The markets, following the lead of history and logic, but not reality, banked on Ms. Clinton winning the election.
The market's rebound once it became clear that Mr. Trump was the winner included a full swing of more than 1,100 points by the Dow.
That immediate opportunity came and went too quickly for most financial advisers.
But, like the market's reaction to the Brexit vote earlier this year, which took all of 48 hours to fully recover, this shows that the markets are still grounded in fundamentals.
Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, summed up such major geopolitical events as temporary distractions that financial advisers should try and ignore.
“This doesn't mean the stock market is straight up from here, but the noise is secondary and tertiary in importance to market fundamentals,” he said.
This brings us to the near- and longer-term impact on the election outcome, and this is where strategies can be applied based on both expectations and realities of the new administration.
The brief period between the election and inauguration day gets a lot of attention as policies and cabinets come together, but the markets don't always reflect the mood of the electorate.
For example, the worst election-to-inauguration performance on record was the Dow's 19.94% drop after Democrat Barack Obama was elected in 2008.
The Dow's best post-election performance came after Republican Herbert Hoover was elected in 1928 at a time when the inauguration was held in March.
While it's too early to tell where the chips will ultimately fall under a Trump administration, the markets are already placing bets on some of the most obvious sectors.
Investors jumped early and hard on the biotechnology sector, based largely on the reality that Ms. Clinton would not be able to apply her promised pressure on pricing.
The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB), which is down 15.6% from the start of the year, gained 8.9% the day after the election on seven times the normal daily trading volume.
The S&P 500 Index, by comparison, is up 7.8% this year, and gained 1.1% the day following the election.
It is a similar story across the biotech category.
The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI), is down 8.9% this year, but gained 10.4% the day after the election.
The Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT), which is down 1.6% this year, gained 3.5% the day after the election.
The financial and energy sectors are also expected to benefit from a Trump administration that could promote energy production and relax some banking regulations.
Those are seen as longer-term plays, while many of the more defensive sectors like utilities and real estate are expected to be out of favor.
The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE), which is up 10.1% this year, jumped 5.2% on the election results.
The iShares US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (IEO), which is up 14.7% this year, gained 3.2% the day after the election.
But immediate market reactions aside, the longer-term outlook for these sectors depends heavily on the confidence in the direction and abilities of a Trump administration.
“You would expect the defensive sectors to be out of favor,” said Todd Rosenbluth, director of mutual fund and ETF research at CFRA.
“But the flipside is the uncertainty and unknowns of what a Trump presidency would mean,” he added.
In that case, defensive is your friend, and you'll want to be nuzzling up to something like Vanguard REIT Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ), which is up 2.3% this year, but fell 1.5% the day after the election.
Ditto for Utilities Sector SPDR Fund (XLU), which is up 12.1% this year, but lost 3.7% the day after the election.
“The more defensive sectors are going to look like recession trades,” said Paul Schatz, president of Heritage Capital Management.
“Donald Trump has some very pro-growth policies that should finally kick start the economy,” he added.
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