BONUS Surprise: Inner Circle Shakeup
Bonus #2 – Inner circle shakeup Given how Donald Trump’s campaign went and how much turnover there was at the top, that theme continues straight to the 2018 mid-term election. At least 3 cabinet members will be replaced by then and another one or two from the rest of the inner circle. Some will be asked to leave while others will become frustrated with either the president or acrimony in Congress. Steve Bannon, Kellyanne Conway, Sean Spicer, Wilbur Ross, Steve […]
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Date: February 8, 2017
BONUS Surprise. Janet Yellen Reappointed Fed Chair
#9 – Janet Yellen reappointed Fed Chair Donald Trump attacked and criticized the Fed and Chair Janet Yellen during the campaign. He blamed her and them for many of our economic woes along with the stock market being on the edge of a cliff about to plummet. Once 20,000 was hit, Trump changed his tune dramatically, exclaiming how great it was to achieve that milestone with more upside ahead. As Yellen’s term as chair expires at the end of 2018, […]
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Date: February 7, 2017
Donald Trump is a One Term President But…
1 – Donald Trump is not on the ticket against the Democrats’ candidate in 2020 I find it very hard to believe that Donald Trump will want to run again in 2020. While 74 is by no means old, he will have literally done it all by that time. I think there is a binary path to his party’s nomination in 2020. First, things go so well that Trump opts to leave on top, securing his legacy with the country […]
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Date: February 6, 2017
Bulls Win Big on Friday But Still Not Ready
Very nice day for the bulls on Friday as the monthly jobs report was really the Goldilocks scenario. Not too strong and not too weak. The U.S. saw decent growth with some mild revisions lower but almost no wage inflation which caused expectations for a March rate hike by the Fed to decline to roughly 20%. I would not hang my hat on the Fed staying put in March. There are many data points between now and then and I […]
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Date: February 6, 2017
Trump and Putin Have a Falling Out
2 – Trump and Putin have a falling out This is probably the least surprising of all on the list. One of my theories is that Trump has been so pro-Putin because Obama and Hillary Clinton were such adversaries of Russia. It was yet another good way to differentiate during the campaign. The U.S. and Russia’s interests are so inversely aligned that it would be almost impossible for the two countries not to have a falling out by 2020. I […]
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Date: February 6, 2017
Moderate Justice Chosen for the Supreme Court
3 – Moderate Justice chosen for the Supreme Court Whether Donald Trump has a fight with the GOP or not or if the President finds common ground with the Democrats, a moderate Justice for the Supreme Court will be nominated from one of the judges whom the GOP already approved of at a lower court. All indications are that Trump’s first nomination to the bench, due in early February, will have similar views to that of Antonin Scalia whom he […]
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Date: February 3, 2017
Trump and Chuck Schumer Kumbaya
4 – Trump and Chuck Schumer kumbaya As recently as 2011, Donald Trump may have been or was aligned with the Democrats. He and Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer, used to be pals in New York City. If President Trump and the GOP have a falling out, it’s very likely that Chuck Schumer and some of the Democrats will fill that void, especially if it’s during a period where a Supreme Court Justice vacancy needs to be filled. If you […]
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Date: February 2, 2017
Trump and the GOP Fall Out of love
5 – Trump and the GOP fall out of love It was a vicious campaign that saw allegiances move all over the place. In the end, after attacking a good number of his fellow candidates, Donald Trump reconciled in one way, shape or form with every single one of them. Given Trump’s personality and populist and nationalistic tone, there is a good chance that Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell and the GOP end up at odds with President Trump over the […]
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Date: February 2, 2017
Not All Cabinet Nominees Confirmed
6 – Not all cabinet nominees confirmed Another surprise that seems counterintuitive since the Senate is controlled by the GOP. No president since Ronald Reagan saw all of their cabinet nominees confirmed. Every single president had at least on nominee who was rejected, John Tower in 1989 under Bush 41 or withdrawn, all of the rest since Clinton. In fact, Clinton, Bush 43 and Obama all had at least two nominees withdraw their name. While Betsy DeVos seems to be […]
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Date: February 1, 2017
Strong Fed Trend Active Today
It doesn’t feel like it’s been six weeks since the December meeting when the FOMC raised interest rates 1/4%, but it really has. Can we get time to stand still for a month or so in order for us all to catch up? With President Trump occupying the headlines on a daily basis, Janet Yellen & Co. must be ecstatic that they out of the limelight and crosshairs for that matter. Today concludes the Fed’s two day meeting and expectations […]
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Date: February 1, 2017
