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Author:

Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital

***SPECIAL Fed Meeting Alert… A March Surprise?***

Whether you like Dolly Parton’s, “Here You Come Again”, Kenny Loggins’, “This is It”, or Europe’s, “The Final Countdown”, it’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day again. Boy did those 6 weeks fly by. And the markets have basically done a 180 since January 27 with the Dow going from vertically down to up and advancing from 15,940 to 17,250. Yellen’s Cover for Standing Pat is Gone After raising rates in December, the Fed prepared the markets for four […]   Read More
Date: March 16, 2016

FOMC & Options Expiration the Themes for the Week

The Dow, S&P 500 and S&P 400 enter the new week at their highest levels of 2016. That surprised me when I did my weekend review. I would bet that most people think stocks are much lower than they actually are. Last week was another big victory for the bulls, much to my delight. Day in and day out since February 11, investors have disavowed and laughed at this rally. However, all we have seen in historic participation and strength […]   Read More
Date: March 14, 2016

Bears Left in the Dust

While I did not see the magnitude of the January decline, I did call the January bottom in real time as the internal or momentum low. From there, I saw a reflex rally for a few weeks that would be followed by another decline to revisit or retest the same levels seen in January before a much better, stronger and more long-lasting could begin. While the bears screamed about further collapse and bought more bottled water and canned goods, I […]   Read More
Date: March 9, 2016

2008 Price Analog Put to Bed

In the past few issues, I discussed a widely followed price analog to 2008. Countless times, I have pounded the table that 2016 is ABSOLUTELY NOT 2008. Price was just following that path, but I expected the analog to break down much sooner than later. Over the past few weeks, it certainly has as you can see below. The January decline in 2016 mirrored that of 2008, almost to the day, as did the rally out of the January low. […]   Read More
Date: March 8, 2016

Market Stretched in Short-Term But Intermediate-Term Remains Bright

During strong initiations off a bottom, price just powers higher seemingly day after day without much pause. The most beaten down stocks rally the most and the bears claim it’s all “short covering” and doomed to fail. But it doesn’t. Slowly,one by one, the bears stop disavowing the rally and become silent. Each short-term overbought condition hears some renewed calls for more downside, but typically there’s nothing more than a few day pullback of 1-3%. Since the current rally began […]   Read More
Date: March 7, 2016

GOP Ganging Up on Trump… AGAIN

One of the great things about flying JetBlue is that every seat has a TV so I was able to watch the GOP debate on one channel and the UCONN men’s game on another as I flew to Reno. Boy was that debate painful! Did anyone learn anything new? It is clear to me that the Rubio and Cruz camps got together and agreed to a moratorium on attacking each other so they could collectively attack Donald Trump. They must […]   Read More
Date: March 4, 2016

What do the Bears Say NOW?

Late last week, I wrote in Another 7% in the Cards that stocks were far from done going up. If you missed that post, it’s a good one to go back an peruse. That’s the same message I offered a day after the bottom in February and I have updated the S&P 500’s chart below. With Tuesday’s huge rally to open the month of March, the S&P 500 has moved meaningfully away from the bullish line in the sand. That […]   Read More
Date: March 2, 2016

Another 7% in the Cards for Stocks

Earlier this week as the major indices approached their February highs, I wrote about the need for a quick pause to refresh in Bulls Retreat for More Ammo. While I didn’t believe the rally was over, it was the first attempt against a widely followed price level and that usually fails the first time. It’s now three days later and after two days of pause, the bulls have come roaring back with back to back late day surges with excellent […]   Read More
Date: February 26, 2016

Bulls Retreat for More Ammo

After 6 essentially straight up days for stocks off the February lows, it’s time for a breather or pause to refresh. In one fell swoop, the major indices have gone from the precipice of collapse to strong initiation of a rally. Sentiment saw despondency. Mutual fund flows were very defensive, Price action had panic. The breadth and breadth volume thrust off the bottom has been powerful and dramatic and portends higher prices into spring… with one familiar caveat. As I […]   Read More
Date: February 23, 2016