Bears Continue To Be Woefully Wrong

June is here and I hope the weather has finally turned in CT. Saturday was one of the windiest non-storm days I can ever recall. It was crazy and not exactly a fun golf day. It didn’t help that I stunk without the wind. But a quiet afternoon in the office was beneficial.

Many of the comments I receive via email and social media are from the bears. They LOVE to do the “BUT BUT BUT”. For years I have heard that the bull market is over because the latest and greatest investment has plunged. Remember when Bitcoin was all the rage? Bitcoin bulls remind me of life insurance salesmen. Regardless of the question nor problem, the answer is always Bitcoin. I love when folks tell me that they will “never” sell their Bitcoin. Of course, that’s usually right near a peak in the sector.

Anyway, when Bitcoin peaked above $125,000 last year and subsequently plunged 50%, I heard from many people saying that it led on the way up and stocks would follow suit into a nasty bear market.  Um, no.

Then the bears turned to gold which peaked at $5600 and plunged to almost $4000. Surely, the bull market could not survive without Bitcoin and gold. And yet, it did.

Long-term bull markets rotate. And while the AI trade is the hottest and sexiest, the bull market went along when it wasn’t.

Stocks got overbought in April and they’ve melted up since. Any pullback would be expected. I continue to sense that similar to the post-tariff tantrum, the masses sold into the Iran news and are now chasing their tails wishing they were in, hoping and praying for weakness to buy. By the time it comes, it will unlikely be the optimal time.

Lots of portfolio activity on Friday because it was month-end when we rebalance some strategies. The moves were not based on market expectations.

On Friday we bought AGG, more JNK, more KSPY and more BKLN. We sold some PCY, some EMB, some MQQQ, some FDN, some IYR, some PTH, some XBI, some RSPU, some XLC, some XLF, some XOP, some XLP, some XLE, some MDB and some QLD.