Calendar Helps Bulls This Week
I hope you had a enjoyable holiday weekend. Lots of fun stuff on our end with golf and cookouts and social events and seeing more people than I can count. And tow fantasy footbal drafts last night. My wife rolled in a 10 foot birdie putt on our first mixed couples hole from my iron shot in which I turned into a 30 foot fish tale by the end of the evening. Summer is unofficially over and this Super El Nino is here. While it should impact global weather, the market influence comes on the farming end and it’s too early to model that for me. I am hoping for a bumper snow year in Vermont and out west.
This will be a quick update as I am fighting a multi-day migraine that is stubbornly not releasing. The stock market remains in the bullish part of the month against the backdrop of looking for lower prices over the coming 3-4 weeks. I know. Clear as mud.
While I am not ruling out a new high in the S&P 500, the NASDAQ 100 is a different story, for now.
Markets are acutely focused on next week’s FOMC meeting. Markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a rate hike. You already know my view. It’s a bad idea and they will eat crow in the coming months with a pivot. Folks have asked what will cause stocks to go down this month. I am never good at assigning blame in advance. Maybe oil, maybe long-term interest rates. Maybe something unrelated. Nonetheless, I am firm that weakness is a buying opp for a multi-month rally into 2027.
On Friday we bought SSO and more VGK. We sold HYG, some QLD and some MQQQ.
