Concerns

After a quick and action packed trip to Florida, it is always great to be home. Although I travel a fair amount, I just love my own bed.

The other day I wrote about a possible pullback. Until new highs are reached, that’s what the current structure is. However, in the strongest of bull moves, all we really see are 1-3 day bouts of minor weakness that result in 1-3% down.

For all of you who chirp me about being a “perma bull” I am going to post a number of issues that concern me about the markets. While I am really not worried about the here and now, the closer we get to Q3, the more my concerns may mount. “MAY” not definitely.

The bank index is below. It hasn’t made a new high since early Q1. Private credit concerns have abated, but the group needs to play catch up to new highs.

The Dow Transports are next. Boy, did they look like AI stocks in April. I didn’t understand the melt up and as you know, parabolic advances rarely end well. This has not and it needs to right itself.

Consumer discretionary is last. Same deal as the banks. It needs to right itself and play catch up.

None of these worries about timely. They can last weeks, months or longer before they matter. But matter they will unless they get back in sync.

Finally, we have reached the unofficial start of summer. And in true Ma’ Nature fashion, she’s bringing cool temps and rain to CT. I had hoped to tee it up multiple times, but I sense lots of time in the office. I will share a very special golf shirt I bought for the three summer holiday weekends.

Thank you to all who served and made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom and democracy. We can never appropriately thank our brave troops enough.

On Tuesday we bought RSPU and more DG. We sold some IYR. On Wednesday we bought AIN and more XRT. We sold SSO, some INTC, some PTH and some MDB. On Thursday we bought GDX, more AIN, more ECL and more PG. We sold HYG, some PANW and some QLD.