Dow 50K Achieved – Flipping On Silver – Bears Have It All Wrong Again

Sammy Darnold got his ring! The first Jets QB to win a Super Bowl in 50 years. Except that the Jets and the Panthers and 49’ers and the Vikings all kicked Sammy to the curb. What a great lesson in not giving up when the world does. Our kids need to embrace this. Life is hard. School is hard. Work is hard. Friendships and family are hard. Believe in yourself. Those who know my story know I was there.

The Dow Industrials hit my long-standing target of 50,000 which I first offered in Q4 2022. Now what? I dunno. I need to run more projections. For a market that’s right near all-time highs, folks are only chirping about the negatives. I cannot tell you how many times I hear something like “BUT BUT BUT” and then some political remark. Folks know that I don’t care about narratives. Biden was going to crush the economy. Trump was going to wreck the markets. All the nonsense. Gather data. Model data. Analyze data. Execute on data. It doesn’t mean that’s always right. It’s not.

For weeks I have been screaming about the bearish case for silver. I even sent an email with “Sell Silver” in the subject line. However, on Friday our metals model went 100% long the sector. I didn’t question it. I didn’t rationalize it. I acted on it. Guess what? If it’s wrong it will stop out with a few percent loss. If it’s right it will look for two to three times that on the upside.

Elsewhere, amid the bearishness and calls for a crash, the data say otherwise. The NYSE A/D line is below. Granted, I don’t know much, but bear markets and crashes do not begin with the lower chart at all-time highs soaring. Sorry bears.

Looking at stocks making new highs, they are at their highest level since 2024. Sorry bears, but this is not the behavior we see before large stock market declines.

Finally, pulling up an old trade, I shared an opportunity when Bitcoin was around $85,000. The risk/reward was strong. The next day, price action proved the trade wrong and it was stopped out. Another opp is here again, but with higher volatility. That means smaller position size.

On Friday we bought HYG, GDX, GDXJ, SPYQ, COMB, ITA, more PANW, more MDB, more MRNA, more AMZN and more META. We sold NUGT, DUST, SSO, GSG and IHI.