Here’s October & Q4 – Lots Of Stats On What History Says

My publishing schedule has been off over the past week or so. That should be back to normal as of today. With media on Monday and Wednesday next week as well as our quarterly webinar, I should be super focused and efficient. But you know what they say? Man plans, God laughs.

Q4 is here and the fireworks that go along with it. Let’s start with October which people associate with stock market crashes and plunges. 1929, 1987, 1990, 1997, 1998, 2002, 2008, 2011 and 2022. That’s the glass not so full. I always think of October as the best month for a stock market bottom and opportunity. I don’t think either one is applicable this year.

October returns a slightly negative number when beginning the month in an uptrend like now. It shows power when it begins in a downtrend. Now let me show the other side. When the stock market is up 10-20% through September, October is up by 1.6% and Q4 is up by 5.5%. Those are all quantitative facts. We also know that the average stock was down more than 5% in September and the internals have been weak. It is the classic “have” and ” have not” market again.

As you I have been looking for Bigfoot and the Loch Ness Monster by way of a Q3 stock market decline. Only minor pullbacks were seen so far. While not impossible as we have seen a few times before, Q4 declines are fairly rare. October also is front-loaded with its best returns during the first week. Price is the final arbiter, despite the weak internals and footing.

September employment report was just released and it’s weaker than expected. The reaction in pre-market? Stocks and bonds are soaring on the hopes of less Fed action. It’s a long day so let’s see what happens. Gold, the dollar and bonds are the most important to watch.

Gold remains mired in its post-exuberance collapse.

The dollar has been very strong, but really, just continuing to hammer out a longer-term low. I know. I know. The media and conspiracy crows keeps telling us that the dollar is about to crash and go away. Yeah. Uh huh. Okay.

A beautiful fall weekend is here and I wish it included time on the golf course. To celebrate a friend’s 50th, we are going to a country concert tomorrow night. I don’t know country and I keep forgetting if it’s Zach Bryan or Luke Bryan. I did try Chris Stapleton last winter. Just not my cup of tea or bourbon. Give me classic rock any day of the week.

On Tuesday we bought RSPU, more IAK, more MQQQ, more QLD, more EWT and more RKT. We sold some MRNA. On Wednesday we bought more MQQQ, more RYRSX, more VST and more CALM. We sold IAK, SGHC, some IYR, some BUG, some IGV, some RSPU, some XBI and some XLE. On Thursday we bought BSEP, IJJ, KRE, XHB, more TQQQ, more EWT and more EWY. We sold SSO.