Huge Single Stock Volatility – Fresh All-Time Highs Coming In February

Each day during the first half hour I take stock of all positions we own. During earnings season, like now, I usually see some double digit percent moves. This month, reactions have been severe without the overall market influencing things. One day, I see two stocks down big; the next day it’s the opposite although the down moves over the past week have been than the up moves. I am almost dizzy from watching holdings like RKT, SNOW, TEAM, PLTR, SBUX, GWRE, TSLA, CVS, UNH, INTC and VEOEF.

Anyway, the stock market is consolidating. This is not the 10-15% correction I see coming in Q2 or Q3. New highs should be on the way in February with the former highflying and sexy NASDAQ 100 getting a new lease on life. Truth be told, the AI heavy index is just one good day away from all-time highs, but you wouldn’t know that from listening to the media. They’re all focused on silver which I have written negatively about recently, saying that I was definitely a seller.

The next rally to new highs should see the mid and small caps resume leadership. And the chart below hasn’t really budged at all. Higher beta (riskier) stocks remain leading low volatility ones. That’s been a hallmark of this bull market all along. I am a buyer of high beta, momentum, mid and small caps, pretty much the holdings we currently own.

Kevin Warsh just nominated to succeed Jay Powell. Not often (or ever) that an old acquaintance of mine becomes the most powerful banker on earth.

Another frigid weekend is upon us, the coldest and snowiest winter in a good 10 years. -14 on top of the mountain we ski this morning with winds gusting to 50. My kind of weather! Hey, I am cold when it’s 65 so does -40 windchill really matter?

On Wednesday we bought more MQQQ and more QLD. We sold RSPS, some QLD and some SLB. On Thursday we bought RMQHX, more TQQQ, more MQQQ, more QLD and more PFF. We sold SDS, some NEM and some SII.