It’s Not A Toommah!

“I told ya so. This is a bubble bursting.”

“I knew this would crash.”

Those are just two of the idiotic comments I heard this morning as pre-market activity is decidedly negative with the NASDAQ 100 leading the way down at almost 2%. Let’s forget that these same comments have been made for the past month and the stock market did close at yet another all-time high just last night.

Remember Arnold Schwarzenegger in Kindergarten Cop when the little kids said he had a tumor? In his Austrian accent, Arnold says, “It’s not a toommah!” Repeat after me, IT’S NOT A BUBBLE! Bubbles are generational events and last I checked, there was that pesky thing called the Dotcom Bubble 26 years ago. I was there. Clients fired me in late 1999 and early 2000 for not owning the right stocks although for full disclosure, I personally owned one single stock, The Globe.com and lost 100%.

My friend, Paul Hickey from Bespoke, has published this chart a number of times. It’s an opinion, not fact. He lined up Netscape from the 1990s with ChatGT from this decade. In this one single analog, IF a bubble is eventually forming, there is one big decline coming first and then a doubling or tripling coming.

Finally, the culprit fore today’s weak open is below, bond yields which I have spoken about before. Remember my 2026 forecast? It had long-term yields going up without short-term rates. The 10-Year breached 4.5% this morning. Markets are cranky because it’s the first such breach in more than a year. In a few weeks no one will care because the markets will adapt and adjust. It wasn’t long ago when I shared on Fox Business that I would sell bonds at 4% and wait to buy again until 4.75%.

Today is also May options expiration where more than one trillion dollars in notional goes off the board. After the opening 30-45 minutes, I wouldn’t expect much until the end of the day, if at all.

A beautiful spring weekend is here, FINALLY! Two days of golf in our club’s first major tournament of the year. Unfortunately, the higher handicap folks have a distinct advantage, but it will be fun with my partner regardless. Hoping to get a few extra holes in with the family before becoming a couch potato for the PGA Championship.

On Wednesday we bought more MQQQ, more QLD, more FDN and more XLF. We sold SSO, GDX, PCY and EMB. On Thursday we bought more QLD, more UBER and more SPHB. We sold some SBUX.