No Rate Cuts – No Change In Bull Market
In the very short-term it looks like the major stock market indices are going to at least revisit this week’s low sooner than later. That scenario leaves open my worst case scenario of the 6500 area in the coming days and weeks. 6500 is not an exact point. It is a general range. Hitting that area would also have me downgrade the upside target for the Q2 peak. This is all part of the bottoming process I wrote about the other day. Let’s see what happens. And no, nothing has changed in my view that the bull market remains alive.
And with the 2-Year Note rallying above the Fed Funds Rate this week, all rate cuts are off the table. And yes, I know I forecast rate cuts this year. Right now, the data changed so I change. It’s that simple. As I often write, it’s okay to be wrong. It’s not okay to stay wrong.
I have read folks screaming fire because the number of stocks in uptrend has declined during the decline. Well, duh! Of course it has. The time to worry is when that happens and stocks are at new highs. At the last high, more than 70% of stocks on the NYSE were in uptrends. That’s not bull markets end.
The Big East men’s basketball tournament is here in NYC where I am. Last weekend, we enjoyed watching the UCONN women steamroll the competition as well as pester a few players for picks.
On Thursday, I sat for the marathon four games with a quick break in between. Noon to midnight with a quick late night visit at a local UCONN bar. My favorite daughter joined me for the UCONN game and a local friend came for the first two which turned out to be his first college hoops game ever.
Tonight, UCONN faces an upstart Georgetown team. I think we win handily. If we play St. Johns in the finals that will be a tall task.
On Thursday we bought SSO and more QLD. We sold GDX, GDXJ, KCE, AHTFX, BXHYX, and some CF.
