Opportunities In Oil, Gold & The Dow
It was good seeing so many of our Boston area clients this week. Sadly, the world lost the gentleman who introduced me to all of them, David Fieldhouse, as he passed away while I was up there. I met David in the 1990s when he was an independent financial advisor who was looking to have his clients’ assets managed. We became instant friends and had countless discussions about world history. I broke bread with his wife, his kids and even his grandkids. He was truly one of the good guys and will be missed.
Let’s start with crude oil. In early March when crude spiked to $119 overnight, I wrote a blog about how the indicators were all lining up for a peak in oil. I heard a continuous chorus of “BUT BUT BUT”, war in Iran, China, Russia. As usual the masses were dead wrong. On the next spike up, I said that unless crude breaks out to $130 or higher and quickly, the high looks to be in and it targets at least back to the 70s. I am sure you can guess what folks said.
Nothing has changed. Oil continues to be a “sell strength” asset. For now, it’s declining for geopolitical reasons. What we don’t want to see is a decline for economic reasons.
Gold is below. And I do love those gold bugs who screamed the loudest early in Q1. Well folks, that bloom really fell off the rose. Three times, including today, I have written about short-term opportunities. I like the risk/reward because a close below $4400 says I am wrong and to get out. Upside could be several hundred dollars. I will take that trade every single day, even if I stop out several times.
Finally, the Dow Industrials are below. While they are at new highs, they have really lagged the move. If I am looking for more longs, wanna guess what index I will be looking at?
Another spring weekend is here and Ma Nature decided to give us a very windy and cool Saturday to keep us on our toes. Senior Prom is tonight followed by an engagement party. And of course, some golf and some time in the office to catch up. Renee keeps harping on my messy office. So, it’s now on the list to begin the cleaning process, soon. Filling big, black garbage bags is her goal. Can’t disappoint the boss.
On Wednesday we sold GDX, GDXJ and some QLD. On Thursday we bought NUGT, more JNK, more SDS, more QLD, more COIN, more NVDA and more XLRE. We sold VGK, some MQQQ, some SNOW, some COMB, some QQQ and some XCEM.
