Pullback Ovah But Bitcoin Has Issues
Quick update before I head up to the Boston area to visit clients. Hoping for some chowdah and a laubstah roll.
The pullback I recently wrote about ended quickly as all do in super strong markets. New highs followed suit even faster than I thought. The winners keep winning and dragging most things up with them. Powerful broadening is not taking place, a topic for a different day. There is certainly a chance that the mega cap technology sector sees a quick and steeper melt up before punishing the late comers.
Semiconductors continue to melt up. It’s really been an epic and fascinating rally, with more continuous strength than we saw in 1999, a year that some people cannot stop invoking. They are categorically wrong, by the way. This is absolutely not 1999. We may get there in the future, but not now.
I wrote about another set up in the gold sector which our Aggressive Gold Equities strategy took advantage of the other day. While I do not think this is the start of another leg higher in gold, I do think there is a tradable opportunity or a small loss if I am wrong.
The collapse in Bitcoin saw its first low last quarter at my minimum downside target of 50% from the all-time high. Bitcoin should have rallied more than it has. That in itself says there is underlying weakness. Below 72,000 gets dicey for the bulls. They need the coin to stabilize right here and now.
Folks keep asking me about the Q3 decline I forecast six months ago. I do not have high conviction yet, but there are enough negative pieces potentially developing. In the end as I always say, price is the final arbiter. Right now, the bulls refuse to cede.
On Friday we bought PCY and more QLD. We sold some GDX. On Monday we bought SDS, EMB, JNK and GDXJ. We sold some QLD.
