Sheer Panic – Crashes in Software, Bitcoin and Silver

I wasn’t planning on writing today since I am so far behind schedule and I have three media segments next week. However, with the stock market only down a few percent, I am seeing outright panic in cryptocurrencies and software.

Software is below and this is a repeat of the chart from yesterday. The sector has crashed. It’s ugly. People are selling indiscriminately. Look at the volume with 100 million shares traded in two days. That is weeks worth of volume. While I absolutely do not think the sector will just bottom and go straight up, the risk/reward is attractive after one more move to new lows. Once volatility settles down over the coming month or so, I expect a wide range between the lows and $95.

Bitcoin and crypto have crashed much faster than even I thought. And I was looking for a 50% crash. The most widely traded Bitcoin ETF is below. Look at the sheer panic yesterday with almost 300 MILLION shares traded.

And even with this outright decimation, the media still parades out the clowns like Michael Saylor who only leverage up Bitcoin and buy at any price. From $550 this ETF is now approaching $100.

Lest you forgot one of the media’s Wall Street darlings, Tom Lee, his ETF is below. No comment required.

Finally, the silver crash which I have discussed is calming down. Price moves are declining as is volume. It’s going to take a series of rallies and declines to break the backs of these people.

Finally, the stock market indices have pulled back. It’s been on the mild side for the most part. While it looks like a big up opening, I am skeptical that we have seen the low. I want more information. I want better behavior. I want AI stocks to see lower volatility, especially if we see one more decline next week.

Is the VIX warning? I don’t think so. Let the panic wash out. All-time highs are still coming along with Dow 50,000.

Bitter cold, old fashioned New England weekend is here. Sadly, I will not be in Vermont enjoying the epic snow, but I am hoping for that next week if I can catch up in the office. Stay warm if you’re in the east. Stay cool if you’re out west. Sunday should be a very good Super Bowl. Going against my wife and son, I am rooting for the Seahawks, a team I vehemently dislike, because I love their QB, Sam Darnold. Sammy D has been aside by more teams than companies who rejected my out of college. Sammy D seems like a good and genuine guy who perseveres through setbacks. I can appreciate that.

On Thursday we bought SSO, PCY, EMB, NUGT, DUST, EFA and more GSG. We sold JNK, NJNK, SPYQ, VKTX, some PANW, some MRK and some EEM.