Silver & Energy Stocks Don’t Deliver – Use Volatility To Adjust Your Portfolio
While geopolitical headlines dominate, there isn’t likely to be an “all clear” for months. I wonder what the benchmark will be to stop the bombing campaign. How does it the conflict end and what happens with control of Iranian oil? I have no idea other than what I posed the other day; a new cleric takes over and agrees to dismantle their nukes in exchange for the bombing to end. The Iranian people lose big in that scenario.
Oil just met the top of my 2026 range and it’s only March.
As I wrote the other day, I like to fade the media and masses, especially in times like this. As such, we harvested some acorns in the energy space with stocks like Exxon and CNQ.
The oil service ETF couldn’t even rally on the surge in oil prices.
Remember all those silver bulls who loaded up at the top and then added leverage? Remember them? Very similar to the crypto cowboys last year. Silver was going to be a great “safe haven”.
The stock market remains in a trading range. While the VIX has jumped above 20, I am not concerned just yet since it’s not pressing higher. One good rally day should suck that down to 20 or lower.
In the end, use volatility like this to make sure you like what you own. Buy more of those into weakness and use rallies to unload stuff you no longer have conviction in. We continue to lighten up on positions that have gone up sharply as well as jettison positions where I am either wrong or the thesis has changed. So many good opportunities!
On Monday we bought more MDY. We sold AGG, EMB and some MQQQ. On Tuesday we bought KRE, more D, more DOW, more PFF, more BA, more MQQQ and more IP. We sold some HYG, some XOM, some CNQ and some CF.
