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Date: February 20, 2026

Sorry Bears – Not Your Day

This is going to be super quick. Way too much negativity about a 20% decline and/or bear market. I keep showing various indicators that conclude the opposite. Below are two of my favorites. First, the New York Stock Exchange A/D Line which measures participation. Folks, it’s making a string of all-time highs in the lower panel. That is not typically seen before large decline or bear markets. The rally is broadening not narrowing. Sorry bears. Not your day.

Next is the high yield or junk bond market. Do you see what I see? More all-time highs. This is not what happens before large declines or at the end of a bull market. It shows liquidity is plentiful and strong. Sorry bears. Not your day.

Stocks have been in a range. AI has been a weak laggard which is what remains overowned. Software has collapsed; baby thrown out with the bathwater. Opportunities abound for the long-term.

Don’t fall for the Armageddon nonsense. Gather data. Model data, Analyze data. Execute on data.

No Vermont this weekend. 🙁 Someone in my house will be celebrating a milestone birthday that is greater than 40 and less than 60. Unless Mother Natures spoils my surprise we will be going away overnight on Sunday to begin the year-long festivities.

On Wednesday we bought SPYQ, more TMO and more META. We sold KRE. On Thursday we bought more XME.

Author:

Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital