Two Big Catalysts This Week To Break Summer Doldrums
The markets have been in summer doldrums mode all month. There are two large catalysts that could see that end this week. First, we have Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday after the close. I would like to see a big move into earnings to be able to fade, meaning go opposite. In an easier world, that would mean weakness through Wednesday and then a rally.
The second event happens on Friday as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, delivers his first Jackson Hole speech. Some folks think he will continue his “less is more” and make it quick. I hope that’s not the case. Rather, I would like to hear about these task forces he created to help advance the FOMC into its next iteration along with his thoughts on the almost $7 trillion balance sheet. Warsh has long stated that he doesn’t want the Fed to be as big a player in the markets.
The long-term Treasury market has been front and center lately with yields still moving higher and the Treasury announcing a plan to become more active. “It’s not QE. It’s not yield curve management”. Let’s see if it works. You can ignore all of the noise until the yield falls below 4.6%.
After last week’s post about Moderna and Merck, someone asked for an example of a stock that didn’t work out. Well, it was Moderna again. I recall buying it in May of 2024 and then stopping out over the summer of 2024 with a loss.
I walked away for a while and then noticed the company again when a fresh set up was forming. I don’t have any issue with losing money and coming back to a stock when conditions change or the data change.
On Friday we bought IGV, BUG, more TQQQ, more AIN, more MDB, more CHD, more QQEW, more EWY and more EWT.
