Very Strong Seasonal Stats To Year-End

May starts today and seasonal trends show a strongly bullish day setting up, not in magnitude, but in the odds of an up day. Additionally, when the S&P 500 is up 5%+ in April, the next 8 months are up more than 80% of the time by roughly 3%. And when the S&P 500 is up 10%+ through April, the rest of the year is very strong with the exception of 1987.

After the FOMC left interest rates unchanged, very much expected by all, Jay Powell announced he was staying at the Fed as a Governor which was his initial appointed role. I was surprised that he wanted to stay, likely to annoy Donald Trump as they two have fought for years. I still think Powell leaves. If the economy falters, Trump will blame Powell because the President has been lobbying for lower rates. The same with the jobs market. If the economy does not weaken, Trump takes credit for his policies working. Powell can only lose. Who needs that aggravation, especially when you’re already very wealthy.

The Dow Industrials finally joined the stock market party. They had been lagging since the April low. They look positioned to catch up and run well into the 50,000s. 54,000 is my next target.

Last Saturday was the 20th anniversary of my 40th birthday. I flew to Florida because direct flights didn’t work out to fly on Sunday. That night a group of industry friends threw me a surprise party. My good buddy, Sam Jones, flew in from CO to surprise me.

It’s good to be home from Tampa where I attended an A+ NAAIM conference and got to catch up and network with some of the industry’s finest. I gave a presentation on how I built my business from scratch making almost every mistake known to mankind. Lots of AI-related topics were discussed which blew my mind.

On Wednesday we more MQQQ, more MRK and more MDB. On Thursday we bought EWT, more CHWY, more HD, more JPM, more OTIS, more UBER and more SPHB. We sold RYTNX, some EPU and some QLD.