Three Scenarios to Year-End
On the surface, you would think that the past nine days were nine easy days for the bulls. After all, the Dow was up more than 5%. What could be bad? Beneath the surface, there was much wrong with the post-election rally that began the day before the election. To begin with, the Dow was a leading index, followed by the Russell 2000. The S&P 500 and S&P 400 were nothing special. The NASDAQ 100 was actually down over the […]
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Date: November 18, 2016
Clinton Scenario But Trump Portfolio
In several interviews before and after the election, I offered that stocks would decline 3-6% on a Trump victory and a better buying opportunity would come towards Thanksgiving. At the overnight lows as election results were being reported, stocks were 5%. That’s not how I envisioned the pullback occurring, but it did. I certainly did not see the market forming a low overnight and then rallying 8% like a rocket taking off. Overall market directional behavior last week was conforming […]
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Date: November 14, 2016
Another Wrong for Me
Besides misreading the research, my personal electoral opinion was wrong which was not based on research and cold, hard facts.In that email as well as in a subsequent article it just didn’t seem plausible for Trump to win the necessary 270 electoral votes. I said he absolutely needed Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Ohio which had correctly predicted the last 13 presidential contests. Sweeping those four had a 6% chance of occurring. And even then, he would need to turn […]
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Date: November 11, 2016
Election Model Correct… AGAIN
Thanks to FOX in CT for having me on the day before and the day after Election Day. Below are the two links to the segments. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbfaTfILVDs&feature=youtu.be https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCI4ZmVWgec&feature=youtu.be The longest election build up in our history is finally over and the outcome was certainly not what the mainstream media and pollsters expected. Throughout October and early November, it was widely expected by ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC and CNN that Hillary Clinton would become our 45th president. The major polls offered […]
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Date: November 11, 2016
The Path to 270 & Stock Market Reaction
Don’t forget to vote! Thanks to NBC, ABC and FOX in Connecticut for having me on regarding the election. Each segment was very different and offered new information. The first two interviews are below and I will post the FOX one as soon as I have it. Statistical Model Provides Hints at Presidential Outcome Financial expert says election could have impact on stock market It’s been a long two years since the midterm election and I think I can confidently […]
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Date: November 8, 2016
Time to Buy or Wait
After 9 straight down days and a little help from the FBI, the stock market looks to soar higher at the opening on the increased likelihood of a Clinton victory on Election Day. While I completely understand the “devil you know” argument and continuation of much of the same from the past 8 years, I am somewhat surprised the market is so at ease with the prospect of higher tax rates on job creators and widespread social program spending. However, […]
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Date: November 7, 2016
8 Straight Down Days – Quiet Bear Market?
The S&P 500 is now down 8 straight days. Pundit chatter in the media and on Twitter has been fairly negative. Option traders are bearish. The volatility index is up almost 100% since September. Either a bear market has quietly begun or the market is approaching yet another good dip to buy in an ongoing bull market. I think you know where I stand. Seasonality studies are abound that the market just entered the best six months. Additionally, it’s also […]
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Date: November 4, 2016
Stock Market Predicts Trump Victory
In what seems like the longest election season in the history of the world, the end is hopefully near on Tuesday although after 2000 and the endless surprises this year, that’s certainly not set in stone. Let me begin by stating that almost none of what I write in this report reflects my own political views. They are 100% irrelevant. I will do my best to keep that sort of editorial for another time. As I have often mentioned over […]
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Date: November 4, 2016
Fed Model Says Rally. A November Surprise from Yellen?
Before I dive into the meat of the article, our market model for today is a plus or minus .50% move until 2 pm and then a rally into the close. Two of our Fed Statement Day (today) models are live and are very bullish with a success rate of 80%. We’ll see how that works out before long. With the election just around the corner, it would be almost impossible to believe that the Federal Reserve would raise interest […]
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Date: November 2, 2016
Key Sectors Holding Up Otherwise Weak Market
Last week, I voiced a little more concern about the stock market as the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 broke to the downside from their trading ranges. So far, they haven’t been able to regain previous levels. Now, we have the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 trading at the lower end of their ranges and it looks like stocks have further to go on thew downside before finding more solid footing. As I have said for months, based on market […]
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Date: November 1, 2016
