Bulls Refuse To Cede Control
The first three days of this holiday shortened week have been interesting in that the headlines and media have been on the negative side, but stocks are trying to push higher to new highs. The S&P 500 is below and you can see that after Thursday it is once again just one good day from that horizontal blue line which is intra-day new highs. Closing new highs is lower at 4794 which may be seen today. The Dow Industrials and […]
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Date: January 19, 2024
Fearless Forecast 2024 Part II – Bonds, Gold, Oil, Bitcoin, Economy, Fed & Election
I am going to continue with my 2024 Fearless Forecast in piecemeal fashion and then post one very long blog for posterity. Fixed Income I don’t think 2024 will be a big year for bonds in either direction. Let’s start right there. Overall, I think they are in a trading range bound by 2023 high and low. If I was forced to offer a scenario for the year, I would say that bonds are weaker earlier in the year and […]
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Date: January 18, 2024
For All The Negative Fanfare, Stocks Remain a Whisker From ATHs
Let’s take a step back and get away from the media’s hyperbole and hysteria regarding the two inflation reports last week. Essentially consumer prices were a little hotter and producer prices were a little cooler. That’s really it in a nutshell. The market was pricing in up to 7 rates cuts in 2024 which I have viewed as insanely absurd. As I mentioned on FOX61 the other day, if the Fed has to cut anywhere near 7 times, we will […]
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Date: January 14, 2024
Fearless Forecast 2024 – Stock Market To Tack On Another 11-15%
I had hoped to communicate my full 2024 Fearless Forecast with a grading of 2023 in one email. That’s not happening. Too much info. So I am sharing the largest portion first, my forecast for the stock market. 12 months ago, I had a lot to say. However, most people could say that about me on any given day. As 2023 began, the masses were universally aligned in the bear camp, the doomsday camp and even the Armageddon camp. Almost […]
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Date: January 10, 2024
Strong Q4 > Weakness in January, But How Much?
Thank you to those who attended our quarterly webinar last night. We covered a lot and I appreciate your time. The archive will be available today and emailed to all those who signed up. My 2024 Fearless Forecast turned out to be a whole lot longer than I anticipated. I know. I know. You’re really shocked. So, I decided to release the equity market portion first and then the rest. If all goes according to plan, you can expect that […]
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Date: January 8, 2024
Santa Did Not Call But Be Careful With Bears Coming to Broad & Wall – Bumpy is The Theme
Greetings from Beantown, one of my favorite cities. I have been traveling for work since 1989 with thousands of trips I guess and I have never forgotten my clothes. That is, until last yesterday. My plan was to head to Vermont from Boston and I have everything I need in Vermont. So as I am scrambling to get on the road with my UCONN napsack, I left the articles of clothing I needed behind. I did manage to bring a […]
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Date: January 5, 2024
2024 Begins on Defense – Buy Weakness – Enough Said
Welcome to 2024! I hope you had a great long weekend. Mine was full of football, family, friends along with some yard work, the UCONN game and some office time. For the bourbon aficionados out there, I won an auction of various labels from the Buffalo Trace family that included three bottles of Wellers. Still no Pappy Van Winkle, but I won’t give up hope. For me this is traditionally the busiest week of the year inside the busiest month […]
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Date: January 2, 2024
Hartford’s Top Financial Advisor Reveals Retirement Strategies for 2024
Gone are the days when a lifetime career with one employer led to a secure pension payment for the rest of your life. Now, the responsibility for building a retirement fund primarily falls on individuals with matching employer contributions. Retirement planning in 2024 is another opportunity to add to your retirement assets. For many, saving enough assets for a comfortable, secure retirement is a significant challenge. Several variables can impact the accumulation of these assets: Inflation, taxes, rising life expectancies, […]
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Date: December 29, 2023
Final Day of 2023 Shaping Up To Be Down – Small Caps Have Been a Blockbuster
I have said this all year, but what a fun year it has been. Not only did the markets follow my script fairly well, but it was a blockbuster year for the bulls and investors. I don’t think 2024 will be a mirror image. I am sad to see the calendar turn, but random dates do not impact markets. I continue to formulate my 2024 Fearless Forecast and I look forward to sharing that with you next week. With markets […]
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Date: December 29, 2023
Every Month Counts: 2024 Retirement Planning Made Simple
As a fee-only fiduciary financial advisor in Hartford, CT, taking a more defensive approach to retirement planning is important, especially when the securities markets are extremely unpredictable. Based on that, we have developed a 2024 retirement planning calendar that lists the many unknowns that could impact your retirement plans next year: persistent inflation, rising interest rates, a 2024 Presidential election, and continued market volatility. Regardless of what happens in the economy or stock market in 2024, your retirement plan should […]
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Date: December 27, 2023
Bulls’ Stampede Continues – “BUT BUT BUT”
Stocks continue to creep higher as I have been discussing and as the various studies have suggested. I went back to see when I started mentioning strong seasonal tailwinds. It was at the end of October, coincidentally as the stock market was hammering in a major bottom. Since then with the exception of two weeks in December with seasonal headwinds, there has been study after study all suggesting higher and higher prices into year-end. This has been yet more evidence […]
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Date: December 27, 2023
Panic Selling At All-Time Highs – What It Means
On Wednesday I wrote about runaway momentum and how it crushes everything in its way until it doesn’t. That very day and without notice, stocks saw a nasty downside reversal in matter of minutes that turned to hours. Some in the media made a federal case about it. I even heard one interviewer ask a guest to comment on the importance of the last 20 MINUTES. Come on. 20 minutes? Are we next going to discuss minute to minute trading? […]
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Date: December 22, 2023
Runaway Momentum Crushing Everything In Its Way
It is pretty amazing what momentum can do in the markets. Once that ball gets rolling strongly in one direction it can powerfully build and build and then crush everything in its way, kind of like an avalanche which I know a little about. Let’s take a quick look. Below is the S&P 500. From the October bottom you can count only a few red days where the index closed below where it opened. Now, go see how many times […]
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Date: December 20, 2023
Watching Small Stocks For Another Huge Opportunity As Dow Hits An ALL-TIME HIGH
We have an incredibly wet and windy start to the week in the northeast. Lots of power outages, school delays and trees down. It’s 60 with inches of rain and rumors of hurricane force wind gusts. I guess a white Christmas is a pipe dream. The bulls don’t seem to mind. We have the Dow Industrials at an all-time high. The S&P 500 is just a good one day rally away. The NASDAQ 100 could get there today. And while […]
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Date: December 18, 2023
I Was Wrong
My head has been spinning this week. I definitely did not see the Fed discussing rate cuts in 2024. Was that the “pivot” the world has been hoping for all year? I don’t know. And frankly, I don’t care. We came into the Fed meeting with the spirit of our portfolios intact since early November. A few changes at the margin here and there. I thought there could be a 1-2% pullback between Thanksgiving and today as it is a […]
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Date: December 15, 2023
10 Signs It May Be Time to Break Up with Your Financial Advisor
The stakes are undeniably high when you entrust someone with the critical task of helping you manage your liquid wealth. This is even more true when you are nearing retirement and have more to lose. You basically get one opportunity to get it right. Many investors rate their financial advisor’s performance based on their results during the recent bull market. When you see your statement balances going up, that’s a good sign. You may think, “My financial advisor must be […]
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Date: December 15, 2023
Fed Rate Cut Next Move – Bears Remain Embarrassingly Wrong
Let’s start with the model for the day. The S&P 500 is most likely to be plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then rally. However, because the stock market has rallied sharply into Fed day and closed so strongly on Tuesday, the post-2pm strength has been muted away to a coin flip. Post-Fed Day, stocks are supposed to pause or pull back very mildly before another assault higher. So, as we have done all year, continue to buy weakness. […]
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Date: December 13, 2023
“Paul The Bear” – Doesn’t Really Ring
It was a good weekend. Skiing was nice, soft and springlike on Saturday. On Sunday, America’s Team kept rolling and beat the Eagles and the UCONN women looked a little bit better in beating UNC. I also ate like this was my last weekend in earth and my pants are a wee bit tighter this morning. The big employment report came out on Friday and market reaction was super muted. I guess the bulls won the day but volatility has […]
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Date: December 11, 2023
Muted Reaction From Employment Report – Value & Small Caps Quietly Leading
The monthly jobs report hit this morning and the economy created 199,000 new jobs, 9,000 more than expected. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% from 3.9% which is a surprise. I am struck by how muted market response has become to what was once considered the most important economic release of the month. Bond yields climbed and pre-market trading show some mild weakness for stocks, but neither was out of the ordinary for a normal day, let alone with this […]
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Date: December 8, 2023
A Look at Two Key Sectors as Markets Quiet Down
Markets have really quieted down as we get into the meat of December. That’s a plus for the bulls as the bears finally have some things on their side of the ledger to cling to. After such an amazingly powerful rally, the longer the bulls can hold off any meaningful pullback in stocks, the more likely the market will resolve itself higher sooner than later. As I have mentioned, we have a seasonal headwind for another week or two and […]
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Date: December 6, 2023
