Trading Range Being Established
As I have been discussing, the stock was longing for a reason to decline and it seems to have found it in Coronavirus. Whether it was that or something else, stocks were much in need of a pullback. As you know, sentiment had reached the frothiest of frothy levels, but the foundation remained solid. That usually leads to your garden variety short, sharp pullback, to at least get sentiment back to neutral. I don’t think we have the set up […]
Read More
Date: January 31, 2020
Media Day, Fed, Coronavirus & More Today
I am excited to join Yahoo Finance’s On The Move from 10:20am to 10:30am discussing the Coronavirus’ impact on the markets and if the worst is behind the markets. After that, the TD Ameritrade Network is next to give a market update and offer some stock picks. I have to admit; it’s been tough to find fresh ideas after such a strong rally since October. I keep waiting and waiting for the traditional energy names to set up, but that’s […]
Read More
Date: January 29, 2020
Fed to Cut Rates, Indicate Pause & Move to Neutral
What to Expect Today The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is going to cut interest rates by another 1/4% at 2:00pm on Wednesday. The market is expecting it and the cut has already been priced in. Any other action would be a shocker. With stocks essentially at to all-time highs, this continues to be reminiscent of 1995 when the Fed came from an overly restrictive monetary policy in 1994 to realizing they screwed up and quickly played catch up. Stocks […]
Read More
Date: October 30, 2019
Here Comes Another Cut, But Will the Markets Celebrate?!?!
What to Expect Today The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is going to cut interest rates by another 1/4% at 2:00pm on Wednesday. The market is expecting it and the cut has already been priced in. Any other action would be a shocker. With stocks so close to all-time highs, this is again reminiscent of 1995 when the Fed came from an overly restrictive monetary policy in 1994 to realizing they screwed up and quickly played catch up. Stocks had […]
Read More
Date: September 18, 2019
Powell’s Arrogance & Ignorance to Continue – Here Comes the Cut
What to Expect Today Let’s get the worst kept secret out of the way. The FOMC is going to cut interest rates today by 1/4%. I don’t know of anyone who doesn’t believe that short-term rates are going down today, regardless of whether they agree or not. The big question is going to be what Powell says after that. Is this an “insurance” cut as in one and done? Or, is it the beginning of a rate cut cycle like […]
Read More
Date: July 31, 2019
Post Fed – A Rate Cut – SERIOUSLY?!?!
Jay Powell & Company gave the markets exactly what they wanted on Wednesday. They threaded the needle which is no easy feat. As someone who has been very critical of the Fed, I have to give them props for not upsetting the apple cart. The problem now is that markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a interest rate cut in July which doesn’t sit well with me. If stocks continue rallying, how can the Fed really give it […]
Read More
Date: June 21, 2019
Insurance Rate Cut, Oasis in a Recessionary Desert, Dow 30,000
Here we go. We went a whole two FOMC meetings without the media labeling them something like, “the most important Fed meeting ever”. That was a whole 12 week respite. But fear not, there is widespread labeling today that there has never been a more important FOMC meeting than the one ending today at 2:00 pm. Before I begin to unpack today and what lies ahead, I want to extend a thank you for the support I have received since […]
Read More
Date: June 19, 2019
The Most Unanticipated FOMC Meeting
The Most Unanticipated FOMC Meeting Today is one of the most unanticipated Fed statement days in recent memory. How will we ever survive without hearing that “today is the most important Fed day ever”? I say that because absolutely nothing is really expected today. Chairman Jay Powell did his 170 degree turn earlier this year and the Fed is now on a new course. Okay. Maybe, I am exaggerating a little bit. Perhaps, we will hear about their plans to […]
Read More
Date: March 20, 2019
Markets Not Waiting on Fed Statement Today
Powell Turns 180 Degrees and Loses Credibility Fed statement day is here once again. Yippee! Chair Jay Powell did something I don’t think I have seen in 30 years in the business. He did an almost 180 degree turn in just three weeks after raising rates and forging full steam ahead with more asset sales on December 19. When the markets, both stock and credit, accelerated to the downside, Powell eventually walked back his very hawkish stance to try and […]
Read More
Date: January 30, 2019
The Absolute Arrogance, Ignorance & Incompetence of the Fed
Here we go. Cue the media’s hype. “The single most important Fed meeting, perhaps of All-TIME!” Oh brother. Model for the Day Let’s start with the model for the day. As with every Fed statement day, 90% of the time stocks stay in a plus or minus .50% range until 2pm before the fireworks take place. With pre-market action indicating a much higher open, the opportunity is there for a momentum trade to the upside from the open until 2pm […]
Read More
Date: December 19, 2018
