Stocks Tired But No Reason to Sell Just Yet
Stocks are now in one of the most seasonally strong times of year within one of the most seasonally strong times of year. The big question is whether the market has used up most of the available fuel and needs a break first. Certainly, the last few days have seen a mild pullback. It looks like the bears have a tiny bit of work left to do on the downside. However, those looking for any significant price damage during the […]
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Date: December 19, 2016
Irrational Exuberance
This past weekend was the first official ski weekend for my youngest son and me. And boy was it cold in Vermont! But with mid-winter conditions, it was hard not to overdo it. I overdid it and now I am in a world of pain. Neck, back, quads, calves, fingers. Anyway, as you can imagine, I am usually a chatty one on the lift. Since we typically ride the quad or 6 pack, we are usually with strangers. When people […]
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Date: December 12, 2016
Bulls Continue to Trample Ahead
On Wednesday, I gave a higher level overview of how the stock market is behaving along with the leadership and some key indicators. Nothing has really changed. Almost everything is severely overbought, but they can still become even more overbought. Pullbacks through year-end should be shallow and no more than 2-3%, lasting just a few days. Another piece of good news for the longevity of the bull market came this week. The NYSE Advance/Decline Line scored an all-time high. That […]
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Date: December 9, 2016
Window for Decline Almost Closed
For the past three weeks, our models have been defensive regarding the stock market after the first week’s post-election surge. I often say that when certain conditions are present, a “window of opportunity” opens for a stock market decline. The longer time passes without a decline, the more likely the window will close. Today, the window is starting to close and I imagine that by two weeks from today, it will be fully closed, modest decline or not. The Dow, […]
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Date: December 7, 2016
Yahoo Finance Today & Quick Update
I am excited to join the good folks at Yahoo Finance for their live show today at noon. To watch, go to finance.yahoo.com and you should see the show streaming. While so many people fretted over the election in Italy, the global financial markets don’t really seem to care this morning with the bulls in charge. Although December is a very positive time for U.S. stocks, it’s backloaded, meaning that the second half of the month is much more powerful […]
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Date: December 5, 2016
1991 & 1992 Offering Good Clues Too
Yesterday, I wrote about the analog with 1980. If I change my research parameters from presidential elections to similar price behavior during any year, I come up with a very different analog. The current market is first below and you can see the BREXIT bottom in the middle, followed by the big summer rally and period of digestion before the current rally began on the right side. In 1991, we saw a massive rally after the U.S. and its allies […]
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Date: December 1, 2016
1980 a Good Analog for 2016
Since the election the financial media and pundits have been fascinated with labeling the stock market’s strong run as The Trump Rally. I get it. And it’s really only a silly name anyway. However, the market isn’t rallying just because Donald Trump was elected. If the Senate went blue, I would argue that we would seen a muted response. Equally, if not more important, is the fact that the GOP now controls Congress and similar to how the government looked […]
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Date: November 30, 2016
