So much non-market moving news that folks seem to fixate on. I guess we’re back to chirping about tariffs which you already know how much I oppose them. However, at the same time, I have also stated that contrary to many economists and academics I did not believe they would cause recession, befall the markets nor have a major impact on prices.
There is ad that went viral with video or quoting Ronald Reagan that supposedly said tariffs hurt America and American workers. I totally believe he said that. I heard the creators cut out the part about Reagan also saying that tariffs are sometimes necessary. I can go either way on that, but I definitely understand, especially when it comes to national security.
The government shutdown has caused long delays in economic data which can be a good and bad thing. The CPI inflation report for September was released this morning. As I expected and and I have written about, inflation is a touch warmer, but far from troubling. As Q3 earnings are rolling out, a number of CEOs have stated that tariffs have hit them with much less impact than expected. Again, I implore people to stop listening to the spin and narratives from the media and pundits. Just analyze the data.
And if you’re keeping score at home, the stock market is about to score yet another all-time high as some sentiment gauges show excessive fear. Just way too many people drinking the geopolitics Kool Aid and not following the data. The sprint to year-end is on and the great performance chase could get fun to watch. Dow 50,000 still on target next quarter.
Fall has definitely hit CT. And it has been absolutely beautiful. Nothing better than an after dinner bonfire with some top notch bourbon or tequila on a crisp and dry night. Hoping that’s in the plans tonight as the middle guy comes home from Boston for a visit. To no one’s surprise, a round of golf is definitely on tap as is the playoffs for fall baseball. The little guy is down for the count with either the hand, foot and mouth virus which spread like an epidemic through school or just a nasty virus. His final fall ball season is over.
On Wednesday we bought RSPU. We sold some XLF. On Thursday we bought PDBC and IWF. We sold some MTUM and TLT.
