Category: Blog

December Seasonally Strong with Soft Patch Coming up to Santa

The last month of the year has begun. Usually at this time of year I comment that I can’t believe how fast the year flew by. However, 2020 hasn’t conformed to any historical norms. It feels like the year that just won’t end. The year that time stood still. December is the second month of the strong seasonal period of November through April. December is also one of the strongest months of the year. Going one step further, December is […]   Read More
Date: December 2, 2020

Seasonal Weakness Today – Big Sea Change Elsewhere

Last Wednesday’s and Friday’s very strong seasonal tendency came in a bit muted, however with such a powerful rally coming into those days, no one can be surprised. Today, there is a strong headwind as the Monday after Thanksgiving always is. It is also the last day of the month where some portfolio games are sometimes seen. Over the past week or so, there has been a subtle shift back into the Fab Five Plus mega cap technology stocks and […]   Read More
Date: November 30, 2020

Strong Seasonal Trend – Market Frothy

I hope everyone had a happy, safe and meaningful Thanksgiving! Today is one of those abbreviated trading sessions where many market participants often skip. While I would rather be skiing if I am being honest, my recovery is preventing that so off to the office it is. The Friday after Thanksgiving has a very bullish seasonal edge, even stronger than the Wednesday before which did not work out. Next Monday has a strong headwind so super short-term traders might be […]   Read More
Date: November 27, 2020

Seasonal Trends Cranking Up

There has been so much written about the strong seasonal trends this week, specifically Wednesday and Friday. They are historically strong days, followed by next Monday being seasonally weak. The details do not matter. However, let’s remember that stocks have been in rally mode since October 30 with barely a whiff of weakness. Don’t be surprised if some or much of the seasonal tailwind dissipates. And while on the topic of positive tailwinds, we know the period from November through […]   Read More
Date: November 25, 2020

Yellen the Safe Pick – Brainard not Far Behind

Joe Biden et al leaked that Janet Yellen will become his Treasury chief. Lost in the celebration of her becoming the first female to do this is that she that Wall Street absolutely loves the pick. I suspect a whole more than the progressive wing of the Democrats. Yellen is a known quantity and least concerning about upsetting the apple cart. Let’s not also forget that she should sail through a red or blue Senate for confirmation. Biden knows her […]   Read More
Date: November 24, 2020

Sentiment Giddy

Last week, I listed a number of reasons why the stock market was on a solid foundation. Today, I want to counter that and offer concerns on the sentiment side of the equation. Remember, in the past two updates I described a tug o’ war or dichotomy. Below is a chart which shows the weekly bull/bear poll from the American Association of Individual Investors. Last week you can see in green there were more than 50% bulls while the bear […]   Read More
Date: November 23, 2020

Stock Market’s Foundation is Rock Solid

As I mentioned the other day, stocks haven’t soared beyond their Pfizer Monday highs like most people “feel”. In fact, the opening from two Mondays ago turned out to be a pretty good selling opportunity in real time and in hindsight although I do not see this as a peak of any significance. There are two points of view now and both may end up being right. I briefly touched on the fact that market sentiment has become on the […]   Read More
Date: November 19, 2020

I’M BACK – Markets Happy

As Randy Quaid said in Independence Day, Arnold said in Terminator and Jack said in The Shining,  I’M BACK. Well, kinda, sorta. While Randy and Arnold were awesome in those movies, Nicholson is among the greatest actors ever and The Shining may be the greatest horror movie of all-time. I still remember watching it from under a table in my parents’ house with blankets making a fort around me. Hearing people say “redrum” continues to give me chills. As I […]   Read More
Date: November 18, 2020

The Light at the End of the Tunnel – Thank You Pfizer!

It was amazing to wake up to see the huge success of Pfizer’s COVID vaccine! 90% efficacy. What a total game changer for the country and the world with hundreds of other vaccines and therapeutics behind that. I know that I will be the first in line when they allow me to receive the vaccine, probably next year. (For full transparency, we own Pfizer which has been a dog for too long.) Global stock markets are soaring again, but I […]   Read More
Date: November 9, 2020

Fed Day – When the Ducks Quack, Feed Them

Although we don’t officially know the election results, it seems all but certain that Joe Biden will win and Mitch McConnell will remain Leader. And the markets are absolutely loving it. There were plenty of chances to buy ahead of this melt up and I was crystal clear about it last week several times. Now may be a better opportunity to feed the ducks as they are quacking. In other words, investors are hungry for stocks this week when they […]   Read More
Date: November 5, 2020