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Category: Blog

Classical Dichotomy

In 1994 which seems like a lifetime ago, I played Rotisserie Baseball. It was the predecessor to all these super popular fantasy sports. 12 of us met right before the season began and we drafted our own teams from MLB rosters. Changes to rosters were permitted weekly although for an extra fee, you could do this daily and use what was called a fax machine to send in activity. On Monday’s the statistics service would snail mail leagues standings and […]   Read More
Date: March 4, 2021

Strange End to Feb – Buying Weakness Remains the Play

What a very strange close to February. With the stock market up on the month and Friday a decent day, there were massive computer generated sell programs in the final 15 minutes that knocked the S&P 500 down more than 1.5% before recovering a bit into the close. Interestingly, there was not a TICK spike, meaning that the programs were not widespread. They were limited to a handful of major stocks in the index. We do not know why or […]   Read More
Date: March 1, 2021

“EVERYONE” Talking Bond Yields Now

Thursday was an ugly day. It was one of those “throw everything out with the garbage” kind of day. All indices and all sectors were red. The surge in 10-year yields was blamed. As you know, my forecast for 10-year yields in the first half of 2021 was in the range of 1.3-1.4%. Bond yields hit 1.6% intra-day yesterday as you can see below. The next “logical” levels are 1.65% and 2%. I do not believe we see 2% this […]   Read More
Date: February 26, 2021

That’s It? Decline Over?

Tuesday was certainly one of those wildly volatile days, the kind we saw often last March and a few times in June and September. What was interesting about Tuesday was that significant intra-day losses were reversed so close to an all-time high. That doesn’t happen all that often and from memory, it was behavior seen often as the Dotcom Bubble was fully inflating and about to peak. The question now is, was that it? Is the pullback over? To exaggerate […]   Read More
Date: February 24, 2021

A Change in Tune? Decline Unfolding?

It would be impossible for any of my readers to not know my theme of epic greed and euphoria in the financial markets since late last year. Yet, stocks keep forging ahead, almost unabated except for a very brief 4% pullback a few weeks ago. Make no mistake about it, a sentiment landscape like this is not going to end well. To be crystal clear, excessive risk taking is going to be severely punished. Please do not email me with […]   Read More
Date: February 22, 2021

Another Opp For The Bulls

Stocks have pulled back so mildly over the past few days with the Russell 2000, S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100 leading the way. Yet, there is a short-term buying opportunity in the stock market as today is an expiration day. Those indices that fell that hardest are supposed to bounce the most and likely to new highs. The key will be if one or more do not. That would be an opportunity to further prune and move away from the […]   Read More
Date: February 19, 2021

Now It’s About Rates

The yield on long-dated treasuries is set to jump this morning and the pundits are all over this. You can see in the chart below that the 10-Year Treasury Note has gone from almost 2% a year ago to 0.40% at the height of the Corona Crash in March to almost 1.30% today. That is hardly a surge in long-term interest rates and a gross exaggeration that equity investors are going to eschew stocks for bonds. But yet, we have […]   Read More
Date: February 16, 2021

SPACs the New Dotcom

It’s rare when my blog topics become the same day after day after day. I force myself to think if I am being lazy or there really is nothing new to write about. Perhaps some days, it is a combination of both. The major stock market indices continue to grind higher. Nothing new. My four key sectors, banks, semis, discretionary and transports are not all in sync at new highs, but they are all rallying. High yield bonds are at […]   Read More
Date: February 10, 2021

It’s Confirmed. I Was Wrong

As you know, my thesis has been for an absolute minimum 4-8% pullback in Q1 to at least move the sentiment needle from greed and euphoric to neutral. Well, Mr. Market gave us the bare minimum 4% decline,  but not only did it not repair anything, it has actually made the landscape even worse. Rather than weak handed investors selling, it seems like anyone not involved in the Gamestop Saga bought the decline. That was a bit of a surprise. […]   Read More
Date: February 8, 2021

Am I Wrong?

Thankfully, the markets are calming down from the Gamestop Saga, but it is hard to believe that the whole thing is over. It may be over for the current stocks, but there should be others. And my experience says that the outcome will not be the same and the little guy will be hurt. I just do not believe that the hedge funds and big money will be fooled again. And neither will the platforms like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers. […]   Read More
Date: February 4, 2021