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Category: Blog

Huge News Week But Not Much Movement & No Surgery

Lots of interesting news, but not much in the way of market action. Today is the last day of the month, but the stock market is looking weaker based on the ongoing China debacle and Amazon. I won’t look too deep into this as the week ends. I remain on guard for a summer peak in stock prices that leads to a 7-11% decline. Getting back to the news, on Thursday we had the much anticipated Robinhood IPO although I […]   Read More
Date: July 30, 2021

Fed Day & Powell Laughing at Me – Sell The News on Earnings

Coming in to the week, there was so much to focus on, so much to worry about for the media. Delta variant, new mask rules, the Fed meeting and every mega cap tech stock reporting earnings. All I heard was about the massive fireworks that would be coming. Well folks, so far, there has been nothing. Even with Apple, Microsoft and Google reporting at the same time, there has barely been a sparkler. And all three companies had stellar quarters. […]   Read More
Date: July 28, 2021

All-Time Highs But Some Cracks in the Pavement

The stock market begins the new week with the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 at all-time highs. That’s the good news. However, the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 (chart below) are lagging badly. That’s not so good. Additionally, the number of stocks participating in the rally is underwhelming, not to mention that sector leadership is less than inspiring. That’s worse. Below you can see one of my favorite canaries in the coal mine, the NYSE Advance/Decline Line which […]   Read More
Date: July 26, 2021

I Could Be Wrong

On Monday there was a large point drop, but relatively small percentage drop in the stock market. I did not have strong conviction whether that was a few day wonder or the beginning of a mid-single digit pullback. And frankly, I still do not have strong conviction on this. While the bounce in price since Monday has been impressive, market participation has been underwhelming. As you know, I came into this week having raised a little cash and/or hedged a […]   Read More
Date: July 23, 2021

Was That It? Pullback Over?

My, my, my, what a difference a day makes. The stock market went from the world ending to partying like it’s 1999 in the span of 18 hours. Oh how I enjoyed the pundits falling over themselves espousing their bearishness on Monday and turning tail on Tuesday. In my case, as you know, I wrote about playing some defense last week. And we did with some sales and hedging. After Monday’s rout I bought a small cap index, Cathie Woods’ […]   Read More
Date: July 21, 2021

Bears Getting to Dance

The new week begins and the bears are out and about. If you listen to the morning media and pundits, you would think a repeat of March 2020 is here. I always laugh how people report the stock market in terms of points in the Dow Industrials. That’s more for shock value and attention than it is for relevance. Remember, when numbers get big, they sound much more important. A 1000 point move is supposed to happen with more regularity […]   Read More
Date: July 19, 2021

Starting to Play Some Defense

Some of our models went neutral and some portfolios (remember, we have 18 strategies) reduced risk exposure to the largest degree since last September. We did a lot of outright selling as well as hedging on Tuesday, but those strategies are still net long risk. The models did not turn outright negative just yet. And they may not. As you know, while some of the major stock market indices have been making fresh new highs, the rising tide is no […]   Read More
Date: July 16, 2021

Low Stress in Markets But Inflation Report Coming Up

On Friday we had the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 all at new highs. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 were absent. It just didn’t seem like a celebratory day. Perhaps, it was because the rising tide is not lifting all ships as I mentioned on Thursday. But the market is also not showing stress on the credit side either. Looking below at the high yield bond ETF, you can see that it is just a few pennies […]   Read More
Date: July 12, 2021

Lots of Negatives Today – ONE Day Off ATHs

The stock market is looking lower in pre-market as comments about the Fed beginning to taper their $120 billion a month bond purchases as well as added regulations in China are worrying people. First of all, it’s clinically insane that the Fed is still buying $40 billion of mortgage backed bonds each month when the housing market is white hot all over the country. Why on earth does it need support? When I woke up this morning I heard one […]   Read More
Date: July 8, 2021

Stats Say It’s Still Onward & Upward for the Bulls

I hope you had a safe and enjoyable Independence Day long weekend! While Mother Nature certainly did not cooperate in New England, it is still always great to celebrate America’s birthday and all she has stood for. Lots of interesting stats to post so let’s jump right in. The other day I wrote about the euphoric IPO market and some things investors should consider before jumping in. Today, I want to discuss a bunch of really cool stats about July […]   Read More
Date: July 6, 2021