Category: Blog

It’s ALL About the Banks

I know it was a big ask for both Huskies teams to make it to Texas, but the men came through and earned their first Final Four appearance since 2014. Friday was another interesting day in the saga of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature and Credit Suisse. It was only a matter of time before the bears turned their focus to Deutsche Bank as I mentioned last week. The difference is that the German government is not going to allow DB […]   Read More
Date: March 27, 2023

Stress Ahead of the Weekend – Yellen & Her Flip Flops

The Fed did what was expected and hiked 1/4%. Jay Powell’s press conference was viewed positively by the markets. It looks like maybe one more 1/4% rate hike and then to neutral. But Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen overshadowed Powell by doing a flip flop of her flip flop. And I am not referring to the rubber things I wear on my feet when it’s warm. On Wednesday she commented that the government has no intention of guaranteeing an unlimited amount […]   Read More
Date: March 24, 2023

Fed to Hike by 1/4% – Balance Sheet Balloons Again!

Today, the FOMC (Fed) concludes their regularly scheduled two-day meeting. And for the first time in years, there are two outcomes being discussed by market participants which makes today all the more interesting. The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% and then a rally into the close post-2pm. However, we should realize that the stock market has rallied smartly into the announcement, taking some firepower away. In my view what usually is an 80% certainty […]   Read More
Date: March 22, 2023

UBS, Fed and More of the Same

While the major stock market indices struggled on Friday and it looked on the ugly side, the range from high to low was still in between the range from Thursday. The NASDAQ 100 remains the strongest and the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 remain the weakest. I would like to see the weak bounce without the leaders ceding. That may be a tall task right here, but the bulls need to get prices to close above Thursday’s high. Over the […]   Read More
Date: March 20, 2023

Markets Still on Edge

The end to a volatile week is here and the “risk on” markets fared well over the past two days. The bears tried to break keenly watched levels, but they were thwarted at each attempt. The NASDAQ 100 has behaved very well along with other growth indices while mid and small cap have been lagging. This combination makes an assessment more challenging. While I love seeing tech and the subsectors rally and lead, the market absolutely needs the financials to […]   Read More
Date: March 17, 2023

Volatility Rising But Nowhere Close to 2008 or Even 2022

I am still surprised that Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) created so much panic and anxiety over the weekend since the news broke on Friday. I guess losing two banks in the blink of an eye with the second and third largest failures in history reminded too many people of 2008. As I have said too many times to count, this is not 2008. It’s not even close except that it’s in the same millennium. Don’t get me wrong. I am […]   Read More
Date: March 15, 2023

Bank Failure, Bank Runs and Images of 2008

As I mentioned on Friday to those who receive our regular blog updates, markets had two giant pieces of news to digest. First, Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) was put into receivership by the FDIC and then we had the February employment report. I thought I was going to spend this post on the latter as it’s the biggest economic report of the month and would offer clues on what the Fed would be doing next week when they meet again. […]   Read More
Date: March 13, 2023

Bears in Control as Market Waits on Big News

Lots of market moving news this morning. The monthly jobs report will be out at 8:30am and while I do not have a strong view on the number, I do think that last month’s crazy good number will be revised lower. We also have news on Silicon Valley Bank about a capital raise gone wrong. That is never a good thing for a bank and raises solvency issues. I vividly remember Bear Sterns in 2008. On the Friday before they […]   Read More
Date: March 10, 2023

Powell Rained on the Parade

It’s always interesting from week to week and month to month when the markets react to Fed Chair Jay Powell’s various speeches and Fed minutes. He and the Fed have been clear on the path for interest rates, yet the reactions have been all over the map. On Tuesday Powell spoke and reiterated that we would see higher rates for longer. This time after a two-day market rally, stocks basically gave back the rally from the second day. Mid and […]   Read More
Date: March 8, 2023

Hating, Disavowing and Fighting the Rally

For all the complaining I do regarding Mother Nature, it would be rude and disrespectful if I did not thank her for the 15 inches of snow she dropped on us Friday night and Saturday morning in Vermont. So, thank you kindly! On Friday I wrote about the bulls battling back precisely at the time when the bears were about the declare victory. The same thing happened in December as well as last October. While the masses are all disavowing, […]   Read More
Date: March 6, 2023