Category: Blog

Bulls Charging, BUT…

It has been a nice and fun run for the bulls since the middle of last week. The major stock market indices have all rallied 3-4%. It’s good that they are in sync. However, (Geez Paul, can’t you just leave it at that?) the daily number of stocks going up versus going down has been a bit of a stinker for the past four days. I would have liked to see very broad participation, especially in a rally so young. […]   Read More
Date: October 20, 2021

***Q3 Client Update***

Many people like to read my very “brief” quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. I would rather have been wrong on my forecast and perfectly right on our models. How’s that for a sentence to begin my Q3 report? Over the past few months, I have concluded every single client meeting with my thoughts that gains in […]   Read More
Date: October 19, 2021

When The Ducks Quack, Feed Them

My oh my. What a difference a few days makes. We went from hearing all about 1970s style inflation, supply chain woes and challenged Q3 earnings to partying like it’s 1999, all in one week. Well, good luck to those schizophrenic investors. As my friend and Twitter queen, Helene Meisler likes to say, “nothing like price to change sentiment”. As you know, I have been firmly positive, whether or not the major stock market indices would see one more decline […]   Read More
Date: October 18, 2021

Bulls Roar Back, Who Knew? New Highs On Track for Q4

As sentiment in the media and pundit land was negative earlier this week, stocks roared back to life on Thursday. Of course, the pundits fell over themselves telling everyone how they bought the bottom on Wednesday and became super bulls. Numbers do not lie. That’s why managing money is different from writing a newsletter, being a pundit or yelling BUY BUY BUY to unsuspecting lemmings. Thursday was a good day for the markets, at least price-wise. The major stock market […]   Read More
Date: October 15, 2021

All-Time Highs Still The Call – One More Decline or Not

With back to back deep dish pizza dinners at Lou Malnati’s and Giordano’s, I am back from Chicago after attending what was the best NAAIM Outlook conference I can ever recall. Simply amazing speakers and highly beneficial networking opps. A number of folks who usually come really missed out on this one. First, I want to correct a statement I made yesterday in the energy video. I said something to the effect that regardless of whether the market sees one […]   Read More
Date: October 13, 2021

Bulls Need to Step Up – Vital Canary Under Pressure

Stocks jumped up at the opening on Friday, presumably because of yet another disappointing employment report. The early chatter was that the big miss would give the Fed cover not to announce the plan to taper asset purchases next month. However, the bond market opened lower and stayed lower for the second straight day. You can see that in the chart below. That market certainly isn’t behaving like the growth is slowing and/or the Fed is going to cut back. […]   Read More
Date: October 11, 2021

Bulls Thwart Bears to Finish in The Green – New Highs Still The Call

The stock market finally saw an intra-day reversal from a moderate down first hour to closing in the green in Wednesday. That’s one of the ingredients that gives me stronger conviction of a bottom. While we continue to be positioned for a significant rally based on our models, I still do not have strong conviction that THE bottom is in. And the truth is, I may not get exactly what I want. It could just be one of those times […]   Read More
Date: October 7, 2021

Lots of Investors Negative But Was It THE Low?

After watching a full slate of football on Sunday afternoon (Yeah Cowboys & Jets!) as well as playing 9 holes with the “little guy” who is now 13 and an excellent golf cart driver, I watched 60 Minutes as is my normal routine before the Sunday night NFL game begins. When the teaser showed a whistleblower from Facebook, I took a deep breath and sighed. We own Facebook in one of our strategies and a healthy dose of technology sub-sectors […]   Read More
Date: October 5, 2021

October Not The Bullish Month Many Believe – All-Time Highs Still Coming

Stocks did not end the month of September nor Q3 well. Early strength weakened and the bears pounced into the close. However, that setup leads to a reliably bullish setup from a trend only is active at month and quarter-end. That’s not my opinion or thought; it’s a mechanical system. And if stocks open lower, it would add further strength to that trend. While that was the case when I woke up, news just broke about Merck’s anti-viral clinical three […]   Read More
Date: October 1, 2021

Ugly Day on Tuesday as Pivot in Full Swing

The stock market took it on the chin on Tuesday and my major stock market pivot was in full motion. The major indices were hit with the ugly stick and sectors losses varied depending on economic exposure. However, similar to what I wrote about during the recent pullback, the decline felt worse than it actually was. There has been an unusual amount of negativity in the media. The largest real estate company on earth, Evergrande, defaulted. Inflation has been running […]   Read More
Date: September 29, 2021