News Get Worse But Reactions Do Not – Oil, Stocks And Profits
News of the negotiations with Iran turning south hit over the weekend. I read way too much nonsense about the coming stock market crash and recession. Remember what I always say? It’s not the new; it’s how markets react to the news. It wasn’t long ago when a spike in oil would cause large moves in other asset prices. That’s because sudden large and unexpected price movements a do not give markets time to adapt and adjust. Once markets pivot […]
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Date: April 13, 2026
Models Negative – Semis & Transports Click ATHs
News of a ceasefire caused the stock market to soar on Wednesday with some follow through on Thursday. That move has the S&P 500 just above the upper end of my bounce range at 6800. Was that it? Another “V” shaped bottom is in and new highs are coming by July 4th as I forecast? Count me as skeptical for now, bu tot willing to die on that hill. First, many of our aggressive models not only went to neutral […]
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Date: April 10, 2026
March Job Growth Soars, But – Stock Market Bounces, But
Greetings from Midway Airport in Chicago where we are connecting from Indy to fly home. It’s a been such a fun almost week of travel although the outcomes were not what UCONN nation had hoped for. We did spend most of our time at one of my favorite resorts in one of my favorite cities, Scottsdale, AZ. The sunsets just never get old. While the markets were closed for Good Friday, the government released the monthly employment report and it […]
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Date: April 7, 2026
THE Bottom? “A” Bottom? Dead Rat Bounce?
Greetings from 38,000 feet as I head to Phoenix to cheer on the UCONN women in the Final Four. These events are always so much fun and you never know when it will be the last one, at least for a while. Well, similar to Q1 2025, the last three months were “interesting” to say the least. This year it was Iran. Last year it was tariffs. Anyone want to guess what next year will bring? A new month and […]
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Date: April 1, 2026
Almost There
Friday was an ugly day for the bulls on top of Thursday’s rout. One or two more days like that should create enough panic to wash out the remaining sellers and give us a low. What we don’t want is an intervening weak rally based on some geopolitical headline. When a decline begins to look like a waterfall like the S&P 500 does below, it’s time to have laser focus. Prune the low conviction holdings. Add to high conviction ones. […]
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Date: March 30, 2026
Are We There Yet?
Thursday was an ugly day in the markets. It mostly matched last Friday. The main conditions have been met for a low as well as hitting my worst case scenario on the downside. Now we wait and wait, patiently for the washout. A number of folks asked if Thursday was it. I doubt it. A few more days like Thursday should do it without intervening rally days. The bulls’ spirit need to be crushed for a durable low. It’s getting […]
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Date: March 27, 2026
Another Step In The Bottoming Process – Buy Gold, Sell Oil
As usual, the market forces are not making it easy. Twice this week the stock market was set up for that whoosh lower to clean up the decline. And I think we need a down 1000+ point day on the Dow Industrials. Twice, there has been tweets and rumors and news about potential peace with Iran. Don’t get me wrong. 100% I want peace on earth. What I don’t want is the market to think it can bottom on peace. […]
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Date: March 25, 2026
Huge Snapback – Trust But Verify
News this morning from President Trump on the Iran from saw a 180 degree turn in foreign markets and our pre-market trading. Now, the 1% loss looks like a 2% gain. And I am not sure I trust it. Like Ronald Reagan once famously said, “trust but verify”. I would much rather have preferred the big down open that forced investors to sell on the heels of the multi-trillion dollar options expiry on Friday. Then, a big rally could have […]
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Date: March 23, 2026
Trillion Dollar Plus Day – Step 3 In Bottoming Not Here Yet
Happy first day of spring as well as my little guy’s 18th birthday! I guess we have no more “kids”, just “adults” although who am I kidding? Most of our friends would not consider me to be an adult. Today is one of the largest options expirations in history. Trillions of dollars in derivatives are going off the board. While the numbers have become gargantuan, their impact has been mitigated by 0DTE or zero days til expiration options. In other […]
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Date: March 20, 2026
***FOMC Model For The Day – Buy The Open – No Cut – Stocks Bottoming Process***
The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. The model has a higher expectancy of success because of the recent weakness which would make today very actionable for the bulls to buy a down opening. The FOMC concludes their two-day meeting today with a very much expected result of no action. Although they were never really going to cut now anyway with Jay Powell’s term almost over, the recent spike […]
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Date: March 18, 2026
