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Category: Blog

Pullback Over – All Time Highs Up Next

Sorry I missed the Wednesday update folks. It has been crazy busy with client updates, onboarding new clients and speeding to watch the kids’ baseball and softball after market close. Oh yeah. And the markets have been giving us so many opportunities of late. I am also about to start my travels again, so I apologize in advance for what may be an irregular publishing schedule for some time. As most of you know, however, I spend all my time […]   Read More
Date: May 14, 2021

Calendar Quiets – NASDAQ 100 Still Under Pressure

Last week at this time, the market was enjoying one the strongest seasonal days of the year in the first day of May. The ensuing four days of mild weakness looked good until Thursday and Friday when the bulls decided they had enough. The new week begins with some very, very mild seasonal weakness on the calendar. Nothing that will weigh too heavily. After that the seasonal trends are quiet. Looking at the major indices, we have the Dow Industrials […]   Read More
Date: May 10, 2021

Mild Pullback Continues

The first trading day of May lived up to its billing as an up day. Additionally, the subsequent week is following history as a patch of seasonal weakness. It’s nice when the market follows history so well. For the past week, I have written several times about the stock market being tired and overdue for a pullback. That mild bout of weakness is here, but its magnitude depends on which index you view. The Dow Industrials have been the strongest […]   Read More
Date: May 6, 2021

LOTS of Seasonal Factors of Today & Month

Today is the first trading day of May. I wish someone told Mother Nature that as I had on long underwear and two fleece layers at my son’s baseball games on Saturday. Yet on Sunday, I had shorts and a tee shirt on as we did yard work all afternoon. Spring in New England. Stocks did not close April well, but they still finished sharply higher for the month. April was definitely a fun month all around with tech leading […]   Read More
Date: May 3, 2021

Stop Touting the News

I can’t keep track of how many times I have said, it’s not what the news is, but rather, how stocks react. If there is one adage that has served me incredibly well in my 32 years in the business, it’s that one. Yet people continue to do the “but, but, but”. The market is usually right. Those who make it a methodology to fight it often end up in failure. There has been a dizzying number of Q1 earnings […]   Read More
Date: April 30, 2021

Fed Day is Here and I am Not Celebrating

It’s Fed day and these meetings should all take on some significance going forward as Powell et al should begin to hint at less accommodation. However, the Fed learned their lesson in 2013 with the Taper Tantrum and will make sure the runway is long and clear. Although I have so been enjoying the fruits of their labor since last April and I assume clients and investors have as well, if I sat in Jay Powell’s seat, I would already […]   Read More
Date: April 28, 2021

New Bulls Die Hard

While Friday was a really nice day for the bulls into about 3:30, the bears did manage to make a little noise into the weekend. Still, there were several constructive elements to the day. Market internals were strong and sector leadership was good. Additionally, the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 which had been lagging continued their recent wake up to power higher. Over the last week or so, I have offered that the stock market could begin a series of […]   Read More
Date: April 26, 2021

Biden’s Cap Gains Plan a Disaster

I love when people ask me what could derail the market, any market for that matter. Lately, I have said it won’t be COVID or a third world nation with nukes. However, it could certainly be a monetary policy pivot shift by the Fed or definitely be a fiscal or tax policy change in DC. On Thursday we learned about the Biden administration’s proposed seminal change in capital gains taxes to a maximum of 43.40% for the highest income earners. […]   Read More
Date: April 23, 2021

Time for the Bulls to Step Up

Stocks have now seen back to back down days with pre-market activity pointing to red this morning. The themes have been the same with the small cap Russell 2000 leading the way lower since it peaked on March 15. Remember that the other major indices saw their highs last week. Today should be an interesting day. With a lower open anticipated, I would be a buyer of things that have been hit harder of late, even if only for a […]   Read More
Date: April 21, 2021

How Do You Eat an Elephant?

We begin the new week with 7 yards of fresh mulch still sitting in my driveway, down from the 8 that was dumped on Saturday. It’s a big pile. How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time. How do you spread all that mulch? One wheelbarrow at a time. As I tell my kids when they complain about helping, that’s why we had you guys, to be put to work. For the past few weeks, stocks have […]   Read More
Date: April 19, 2021