Category: Blog

Opportunities in the Financials

Q2 earnings season begins this week with the much maligned financial sector up first. I think there is opportunity here as the sector has been straight down since its peak on June 8th. While I would love to see one  more selloff to new July lows on the first round of reports, I recognize that being too cute forces you to miss the boat sometimes. I would hate to see great reports and the stocks take off right away. That […]   Read More
Date: July 13, 2020

Is the NASDAQ 100 the New Dotcom Bubble?

Another day, another surge by the NASDAQ 100 without the rest of the indices joining the party. You know the few stocks. Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, Nvidia, Facebook, Google and a few more. The Dow Industrials, S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are not behaving well. This is not, not, not 1999 and the Dotcom Bubble, but, but, but this is still dangerous behavior that can lead to consequences tomorrow, next month or next year.  Remember, markets can stay […]   Read More
Date: July 10, 2020

It’s All About The NASDAQ 100

On Monday it was interesting that so many in the media spent much of the day focused on the NASDAQ 100 and those few behemoth stocks within that index which seem to only go up. You know the ones. Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Tesla, Microsoft, Google, Nvidia and a few others. First, it was all about how anyone could or should own anything else. Then it was comparing them to the Dotcom era. They were wrong on both counts. As […]   Read More
Date: July 8, 2020

Young Bull Market Not the Rising Tide Lifting All Ships

I hope you had an enjoyable and peaceful July 4th holiday. Living in CT, it definitely lacked the “feel” of traditional July 4th weekends. No town fireworks. No big gatherings. Nothing special. Last week was one for the bulls as they fought off early weakness and ran higher right to the June employment report which was another record setting shocker on the upside. I actually thought there would be some mildly lower revisions from that eye popper a month ago. […]   Read More
Date: July 6, 2020

Portfolio Games Over But All is Not Well in Hooville

The end of the month, quarter and first half of 2020 are now in the books. Portfolio managers played their usual games on Tuesday, especially in the final 15 minutes of trading where stocks spiked and immediately fell. While illegal, it is beyond hard to prove that a manager was “painting the tape” or trying to mark up the portfolio while other folks sold garbage they didn’t want to show on the books and bought what has worked during the […]   Read More
Date: July 1, 2020

Stocks Could Bounce But Better Buy at Lower Levels

As was the theme for last week, stocks closed lower on Friday and for the week. Some of the headwinds I wrote about have dissipated and the big, annual rebalance in the Russell indices was completed on Friday’s close. While I don’t think the bulls are ready to reassert themselves for a run to new highs, the market is certainly oversold on the short-term and could support a little bounce.  Heading into the holiday-shortened week, one of my favorite weeks […]   Read More
Date: June 29, 2020

Trading Range Continues. Puckering Up for Dow 25,000

The theme for the week has been one of caution, not because of the Coronavirus, but because after the four, big quarterly options expiration, the stock market usually faces a headwind. Add on top of that, we have a massive quarterly rebalance out of stocks and into bonds to the tune of somewhere between $100 and $200 billion. And then there is that “little” thing called the annual Russell rebalance which takes place today at the close. There have been […]   Read More
Date: June 26, 2020

The Week Continues to Unfold as Expected

On Monday I wrote about the headwinds facing the stock market this week in We have post-options expiration and end of quarter during an uptrend. Yesterday, I wrote this in an email. “On top of that we have the polar opposite quarterly rebalancing that we had in March when stocks had sold off so much that more than $100 billion had to be purchased in stocks at quarter’s end by institutions following a set asset allocation, like 60/40. With […]   Read More
Date: June 24, 2020

This Week is Usually Down

Friday saw another one of those “ugly on a chart” afternoon reversals as Apple announced a fresh round of store closings in the states that recently reopened. I am sure a lot of people saw the re-openings as easy and as expected, but the truth is much different. It is going to be lumpy and uneven with varying degrees of success and failure. One thing remains a certainty in my humble opinion; the U.S. economy will never be completely shut […]   Read More
Date: June 22, 2020

Volatility Drops as Short-Term Sentiment Remains Frothy

The stock market has been relatively quiet the past few days. Don’t complain. While it’s a welcomed change, it’s also very normal and healthy to wring more volatility out of the market. Friday is one of the big quarterly expirations of options and futures so we can expect enormous volume right away. Depending on which source you believe, there is supposedly between $50 and $80 billion dollars of equities that needs to be sold.  Looking at the non-NASDAQ major stock […]   Read More
Date: June 18, 2020