Bulls Asserting Themselves, But…
When we left off on Wednesday, the stock market had powered ahead for four straight days, but I was not convinced that the bottom was in. And I am still not. It was a really fun run that we thoroughly enjoyed with all indices going to new highs except for the NASDAQ 100 below. Of course, the index may play catch up in the coming weeks. Some of our non-leveraged, non-aggressive models have not signaled a new lower risk regime […]
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Date: August 7, 2026
***Q2 Client Update***
Q2 2026 saw lots of fireworks, at least from a financial market perspective. That’s because Q1 closed one day removed from the lowest price levels of the year, so far. The stock market was very oversold and unloved as the new quarter began as hostilities in Iran were in full swing. When all was said and done, the major stock market indices saw double-digit gains with mega cap technology even stronger and semiconductors partying like it was 1999 all over […]
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Date: August 6, 2026
Stocks Soar – Am I Wrong?
It has been one strong bounce for the most beaten down index below, the NASDAQ 100. Four straight big days for the bulls. While it may be a day or two early to use the word “thrust” off that low, there is no denying the rally. I thought 29,000 would be a formidable area for the bears to make a stand. They didn’t even come out to play. From a thesis point of view, I will watch the data over […]
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Date: August 5, 2026
August Has Poor History, GDP Better Underneath & Bottom Coming
I hope everyone had a nice weekend. I had lots of fun playing mixed couples golf on Friday evening and Saturday afternoon. My wife’s the best. A beginner golfer who hates any competition, she hit some great shots through 8 eight holes. After teeing off number 9 of 9 holes, she said, “I’m done. I want a drink”. With that three of us finished the hole and she walked up to order drinks. And we still came in second. On […]
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Date: August 3, 2026
Warsh Sets Record For Worst Two Days As Correction Lives On
Oh boy. What a two days it has been! Newly minted FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh now owns the dubious distinction as having the worst FOMC day stock market returns for the first two meeting. Both days saw 1%+ declines in the S&P 500. As expected, at least by me and many others, no action was taken by the Fed. I just didn’t understand those expecting or calling for a rate hike. Since the previous no action meeting, inflation cooled as […]
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Date: July 31, 2026
***Special Fed Update – No Rate Change – Am I Wrong?***
The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. This is not as high a conviction play as six weeks ago when the rally failed to materialize. FYI, Fed models are not opinions as some have suggested. I am not right or wrong. The models are based on data that we gather, model and analyze on a non-emotional basis. Today is FOMC Chair Warsh’s second meeting. He dropped a number of […]
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Date: July 29, 2026
Bear Trap? NASDAQ 100 Achieves First Downside Target – Bottom Not In But Participation Good
Despite Friday’s down day, more stocks went up than down, a small positive for the battered bulls. The NASDAQ 100 met its first downside target of breaching the June low. Given that pre-market trading shows a big bounce, the market has trapped the bears, at least for now. Let’s see where things stand by the end of the day. The bulls need to close the day in the upper 25% of today’s price range. That will be a tall task […]
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Date: July 27, 2026
Bears In Control – More Downside To Come With Pockets Of Strength
The bears had their way on Thursday. It was an ugly day, but not across the board with more than a net of 1200 stocks going down on the day. Once again, the Russell small caps outperformed. Industrials, healthcare, energy and utilities bucked the trend. Don’t discount the importance of small caps outperforming on the upside and downside. The bull market ain’t over folks. I am sharing this same chart of the NASDAQ 100 again. It should answer the same […]
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Date: July 24, 2026
Tuesday’s Rally Unimpressive – Yields Up – Gold Opp
The stock market had a very good rally on Tuesday, but there were only 235 more stocks going up than down. That shows some underlying weakness and a return to the narrow market. With the back of the momentum machine broken, this type of behavior is more supportive of my pullback thesis than a big run above the old highs. The NASDAQ 100 is below. It is bouncing because it pulled back to the June low. On the next trip […]
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Date: July 22, 2026
More Downside Coming But Bull Market Is Not Over
I think of myself as a good listener. I am very keen to what people say and how they react. Earlier this year, friends were bragging about the gold/silver trade and quoting their YTD performance and how large their allocations were to the sector. Que Mr. Market and his punishment. Those folks have quieted down just a tad. Lately, I have been hearing from the debt doom and gloom crowd. One person even said that another Great Depression is close […]
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Date: July 20, 2026
