Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital

Ready or Not, October is Here – Major Bottom Coming

Seasonal trends are like headwinds and tailwinds. They typically do not act as buy or sell signals. Nonetheless, the trends I wrote about a month ago definitely played out. The S&P 500 lost 10% in September and its reputation as a cruel month plays out again. When I penned September is a Cruel Month I did not think that September would be down 10%. That’s a huge outlier in the distribution of monthly returns. And let’s recall that the stock […]   Read More
Date: October 3, 2022

Stock Market Not Reacting To The June Lows Yet

So far, the stock market has not responded to the June lows, meaning that we didn’t see any trap door selling nor a rush of buying. The reaction has been muted. I don’t think that helps. You can see the S&P 500 below, but the rest look similar except for the Dow Industrials. Okay. I will show the Dow as well below. It broke the June lows but hasn’t been able to quickly get back above it. What all this […]   Read More
Date: September 30, 2022

Should Your IRA Include Real-Estate Investments?

If you have a self-directed IRA, you can hold a variety of different investments, such as stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. In fact, this kind of retirement plan allows investing in all types of real estate, including commercial properties and residential homes.  However, before you decide to pursue this option, let’s examine some of the pros and cons of utilizing your IRA this way.  The following topics are discussed below: What is a self-directed IRA (SIDRA)? The differences between SIDRAs […]   Read More
Date: September 29, 2022

Something Breaking Part II

So far, the only index to really break the June lows has been the Dow Industrials. The S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 did a quick dive and recovery which likely stopped out many traders. At this point that does not qualify as a terminating move from which a major rally emerges although the stock market is getting closer both in terms of price and time. I have been targeting October and its bear killing history and nothing has […]   Read More
Date: September 28, 2022

The Rocky Road & Silver Lining – How & When The Stock Market Bottoms

Stocks fell hard again on Thursday and Friday morning before firming into the weekend during the last two hours. Late day Friday comebacks are always suspect but a low isn’t impossible. In fact, the stock market should be close to at least a trading low and likely this week before perhaps rolling over to one more decline before the ultimate bottom. Rosh Hashanah begins tonight at sundown and the old adage is to sell before the holiday and buy when […]   Read More
Date: September 26, 2022

Something Breaking Somewhere

The S&P 500 ended last week at 3873. Today, it stands at 3757. Unless the index rallies more than 100 points today, the weakest week in the weakest month in the weakest year will have struck again. Some wondered whether last week’s weakness was front running this week. We now know that was not the case. The odds were high that this week would be down, clearly not by this magnitude because long-term studies never get that right with so […]   Read More
Date: September 23, 2022

***SPECIAL Fed Update – Recession & 50% Rally in Stocks***

Here we go again. Today is Fed day. I am sure we will hear that it is the single most important decision the Fed has ever made. Blah, blah, blah. Powell and the Fed have been crystal clear, of late. Rates will continue higher until something is broken, or thereabouts. Before I get further into this, let me state that the model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. Given that stocks have sold […]   Read More
Date: September 21, 2022

Weakest Week – Weakest Month – Weakest Year

If you ever wanted to see how the four big quarterly expirations can impact stock prices, look no further than last Friday afternoon. Stocks opened lower and traded sideways until the lunchtime lull ended around 2pm. And then the big players had to square up their books into the close which likely caused the sharp rally into 4pm. We always hear pundits whine and moan about the computer algorithms, especially when downside movements are exacerbated. We rarely investors complain on […]   Read More
Date: September 19, 2022

Is Your Financial Advisor Overcharging You?

As you get older, it’s important to have a financial plan in place. This can help to make sure your golden years are secure and comfortable—and for most people, that means hiring a wealth manager. However, with so many options on the market, it can be difficult to know whether your financial advisor is really making the best decisions for your money over the long term.  If you’re concerned that you might be getting overcharged, there are some signs to […]   Read More
Date: September 19, 2022

Stocks Cranky as 2-Year Note Soars Again

On Wednesday I shared that huge, outsized plunges like we saw on Tuesday do not typically mark the final low. We didn’t have to wait long as stocks fell again on Thursday below Tuesday’s low and Friday’s open looks to be another very weak one. I mentioned how important the U.S. dollar was to the markets and how seeing it peak was essential for stocks and bonds to form a low. Today, let’s look at the 2-year treasury note. It’s […]   Read More
Date: September 16, 2022