Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital

Bulls Surprising Even Me

The markets had a nice mark up into month-end on Thursday. It was one of those “funny” last 30 minutes when everything suddenly jumped higher as if someone was manipulating it. Surely, that would never happen. We have the final month of the year beginning today and it is a positive seasonal day. A week ago, I thought the S&P 500 would stop before it hit new highs for 2023, but today, I guess that’s where it’s headed which is […]   Read More
Date: December 1, 2023

Stocks Look Full As Gold Breaks Out & Bears Scream About Small Caps

Post-Thankgiving, I slightly tempered my bullish exuberance over the very short-term, meaning the next few weeks. It wasn’t enough to take any meaningful action as the downside looked limited and I do not have high conviction. But the market looks a bit tired and full from its big November meal. And for those who pay attention to the trades I post at the end of each blog, we have done very little across our 18 strategies over the past few […]   Read More
Date: November 29, 2023

Some Weakness Possible – Volatility At New Lows

I hope you had a terrific Thanksgiving holiday and long weekend if you were able to take Friday off. We hosted as usual, but my mom came over, commandeered the kitchen and did most of the cooking to give my wife a little break. Of course, I did my best to open the wine and watch football. After all, America’s Team was playing on America’s holiday. And winning in grand fashion I might add. Yes, the Dallas Cowboys are great […]   Read More
Date: November 27, 2023

Break Free from Financial Biases for a More Comfortable Retirement

As a fee-only fiduciary financial advisor in New Haven, I’ve seen firsthand how financial biases can be the unseen pitfalls in the path of many people seeking a comfortable retirement. Using proactive, defensive retirement planning and sophisticated investment management strategies, we aim to help you prepare for and manage market volatility and other factors that can negatively impact your hard-earned retirement assets.  But here’s the catch: even savvy investors succumb to potential biases that cloud judgment and cause poor financial […]   Read More
Date: November 27, 2023

It MUST Be a Bear Market

For the past 14 months, I have pounded the table that the bear market ended in October 2022. To be 100% accurate I started this thesis in late September 2022 and it’s all in the blog archives, the good, the bad and the ugly. It’s also in the media section. I have watched so many people turn bearish from June through August 2022 after stocks had already seen the vast majority of their bear market damage. And those folks largely […]   Read More
Date: November 22, 2023

The Three Musketeers Have Fallen – What Will The Bears Say Now?

This is going to be a quick update as I am catching a flight home. Throughout the Q3 pullback I often discussed the three keys for a durable bottom. They were crude oil, rates and the dollar. I continually received push back that there was no way rates and crude could go lower although people always seem to hate the dollar. Well my friends, price never lies. Let’s start with crude oil. I would say $96 t0 $72 is a […]   Read More
Date: November 20, 2023

***Q3 Client Update***

The third quarter of 2023 was another tale of two halves. The markets came off a strong first half of 2023 and kept on going in July. That’s where the fun ended. So many investors who sat on the sidelines for the first 6 months of 2023 couldn’t stand the gain regret and finally plowed into the stock market and other “risk on” assets in July. We know this factually by looking at money flows, sentiment surveys and the options […]   Read More
Date: November 17, 2023


That was some rally on Tuesday! And that was on the heels of a powerful rally off of the lowest levels we saw in October. I have to admit that Tuesday even surprised me a bit. You know my forecast. You know I have been positive on the “risk on” markets, but Tuesday was one of those days where they rip the faces off of the bears. It was an OUCH day. The bulls had plenty of those in 2022, […]   Read More
Date: November 15, 2023

Bears Couldn’t Even Muster 1 Day of Follow Through

So much for Thursday downside reversal mattering. My thinking for a consolidation of mild pullback fell apart an hour into trading on Friday. If you want an example of how strong the bulls are and how powerful the rally is, that epitomizes it. There was a set up for one thing and the exact opposite occurred. The rally was broad-based and the “risk on” sectors led. On Friday after the markets closed rating agency, Moody’s, downgraded the U.S. to negative […]   Read More
Date: November 13, 2023

Another Bullish Thrust But Some Mild Weakness First

After a fierce 8-day rally, stocks reversed hard on Thursday and look to start consolidating some gains or mildly pull back 1-2%. The oft-mentioned 4400 area on the S&P 500 is where I show the blue, horizontal line. Thursday was the second time the market has approached that area and turned back. I sense that three times a charm and stocks will be going through later this month on their way to 4500 and higher into 2024. On Wednesday I […]   Read More
Date: November 10, 2023