No Rate Cuts – No Change In Bull Market
In the very short-term it looks like the major stock market indices are going to at least revisit this week’s low sooner than later. That scenario leaves open my worst case scenario of the 6500 area in the coming days and weeks. 6500 is not an exact point. It is a general range. Hitting that area would also have me downgrade the upside target for the Q2 peak. This is all part of the bottoming process I wrote about the […]
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Date: March 13, 2026
Volatility Spiked As Bottoming Process Begins – Worst Case Still 4% Lower
When I ended Monday’s missive, I said we would discuss volatility on Wednesday. So I am one day late. The index or VIX is below. At stock market bottoms, the VIX usually soars which it just did. However, it can always soar higher. A VIX above 30 is a definite sign that there is some panic in the markets and it becomes tougher to navigate. A VIX in the low 30s says the market should experience 2% daily moves in […]
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Date: March 12, 2026
Inflation Is Down, but Your Cost of Living Is Still High: Tips for Your Retirement Planning in Connecticut
While 2026 inflation has cooled to roughly 2.4%, the cost to live in Connecticut remains at record levels. Retirees in New Haven and Woodbridge feel the squeeze every month, not because prices are rising rapidly, but because they are already high. This creates a unique challenge. You’re operating in a so-called “Goldilocks” economy where inflation appears stable, job growth is solid, and markets continue to rise. Yet property taxes, insurance premiums, utilities, healthcare, and services remain elevated. This article from […]
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Date: March 10, 2026
Yes & No – All-Time Highs Remain On Tap – Larger Decline Potentially Looms – Oil Peak
The markets are set to open in the direction as we saw last week with stock lower, oil sharply higher, gold and silver lower and interest rates higher. Let’s start with the two questions I received the most last week. The first was if I still thought the stock market was going to new highs in Q2. The answer remains a resounding, yes. At the most recent peak, internal market conditions were solid to strong which means that weakness should […]
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Date: March 9, 2026
Unexpected Job Losses In Feb, Semis Lead, Banks Lag & Volatility Elevated
Lots of info today. First, my quick glance of the February jobs number shows a loss of 92,000 jobs which almost reverses the unexpected surge shown in January. While these numbers are usually volatile, this is outside the box. My sense is that we will find out that weather played a role. Also, the government uses this “birth/death” model to estimate corporations. I suspect something in there may be off for January and February. With such job volatility, the best […]
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Date: March 6, 2026
***Q4 Client Report***
Similar to the third quarter, the fourth quarter of 2025 saw many events in terms of geopolitics, markets and the economy. Returns in the financial markets moderated from their breakneck paces of Q2 and Q3 with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 both up more than 2%. The bond market also gained almost 1%. Gold and silver soared while oil fell again. Bitcoin peaked and began another large plunge. I will say this. Although we have started trading Bitcoin ETFs, […]
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Date: March 5, 2026
Silver & Energy Stocks Don’t Deliver – Use Volatility To Adjust Your Portfolio
While geopolitical headlines dominate, there isn’t likely to be an “all clear” for months. I wonder what the benchmark will be to stop the bombing campaign. How does it the conflict end and what happens with control of Iranian oil? I have no idea other than what I posed the other day; a new cleric takes over and agrees to dismantle their nukes in exchange for the bombing to end. The Iranian people lose big in that scenario. Oil just […]
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Date: March 4, 2026
Is Your Advisor Ignoring the Silver Collapse? The Danger of “Parabolic” Advice
A parabolic advance in silver or gold occurs when prices rise at an unsustainable, near-vertical rate. It looks exciting. It feels powerful. It convinces many investors that something “different” is happening this time. But history tells a different story. Parabolic moves rarely end quietly. They tend to unwind just as aggressively as they climbed. Investors who chase the final leg higher often discover too late that momentum can reverse without warning. Unlike passive advisors who simply “buy and hold” through […]
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Date: March 3, 2026
WAR – Do The Opposite Of Your Emotions
The U.S. and Israel have attacked Iran. Every Dick and Jane has now become an expert on war, tactics and the Middle East. While I majored in political science and really enjoy the subject, I know I am no expert. We can all argue our opinions. Several folks asked if I support the actions and its market impact. First, regardless, I always support our country and our troops, especially when they are in harms way. I also find it horrific […]
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Date: March 2, 2026
Indicators Still Pointing To All-Time Highs For Stocks
It is so fascinating that while the stock market has basically gone sideways this year, sentiment continues to become more negative. The S&P 500 remains one big up day from all-time highs although many people act like it’s down 5-9%. The Russell 2000 is also close to the old highs although I do not believe investors have big positions here. And let’s look at the number of stocks making new, 52-week lows on the NYSE. The number is scraping along […]
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Date: February 27, 2026
