Q4 Setting Up For The Bulls – Buy Weakness
On Monday I published some short-term seasonal stats about October week by week. So far, this seasonally strong week isn’t panning out. I want to pivot to Q4 and why I believe weakness should be bought. Here is an interesting study. When the S&P 500 is up 10-20% through September 30th, October and the fourth quarter median returns look like this. October +1.6% which runs counter to what I published on Monday about Octobers in general. If this week is […]
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Date: October 2, 2024
Medicare Made Simple: Your Guide to Advantage Plan Enrollment
Congratulations if you’re turning 65 in 2024. You will qualify for Medicare benefits sometime during the year. Medicare Part A and B form the foundation of Medicare coverage for eligible individuals, typically those aged 65 and older and some younger individuals with disabilities or specific conditions. Medicare Part A primarily covers hospital insurance. This includes inpatient hospital stays, care in a skilled nursing facility, hospice care, and home health care. Most people don’t pay a premium for Part A if […]
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Date: October 1, 2024
Here Comes Big Bad October
Today is the last day of the month and quarter. I know my readers are astute enough to know that we may see some “curious” action, especially late in the day. Portfolio games may be abound and they tend to get unwound over the next day or two. I know I say this all the time, but I can’t believe how fast the first three quarters flew by. My grandmother was among the smartest people I ever knew. When I […]
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Date: September 30, 2024
Weakest Week Of The Year? Phooey!
For what has been the weakest week of the year, there has been a certain lack of teeth and downside over the first four days without much looking lower today. As I always say, seasonal trends, no matter how powerful, are just headwinds and tailwinds. You can’t react to them in a vacuum. On the flip side, the markets haven’t really accelerated higher either. The S&P 500 looks like it’s just drifting higher into month and quarter-end. It seems like […]
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Date: September 27, 2024
Volatility Low As More All-Time Highs Click In Weakest Week
For what has traditionally been the weakest week of the year, so far so good for the bulls. I need to do some work on what happens after the weakest week goes by without weakness. As the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 have hit fresh, all-time highs, the markets have really quieted down. Take a look at the Volatility Index (VIX) below. It is a solid teenager and looks to be headed lower. However, I would be surprised if it […]
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Date: September 25, 2024
Weakest Week Of The Year Is Here – Fed Wrong
The Fed slashed interest rates for the first time since March 2020. While I thought 1/4% was best for an initial move, a very confident Jay Powell thought otherwise. I tried reminding him that the last two times the Fed began with a 1/2% cut didn’t end so well. One was January 2001 and stocks plummeted another 40% with recession hitting post-9/11. The other was September 2007. The bull market peaked a month later and then collapsed 58% into March […]
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Date: September 23, 2024
***SPECIAL Fed Update – 1/4 Point Best – A Look At The Last 35 Years Of New Cutting Cycles***
The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% and then a rally after 2pm. However, with the S&P 500 being up 6 straight days into the Fed meeting, much of the energy has already been used and the study has been reduced to a coin flip. Additionally, a potential set up for a decline may be in play after the Fed meeting. The FOMC is going to cut interest rates for the first time since March […]
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Date: September 18, 2024
Russell Catching Up – No Unicorns Nor Rainbows Elsewhere
The bulls completed last week with another bang. It was a good and fun week in bull land. The Russell 2000 small caps were the big stars. Recall that I offered them as well as the S&P 400 as good opportunities to play catch up. While it’s great to see, I have enough battle scars from chasing these guys to last a lifetime. So many times over the past decade, the Russell has quickly melted higher only to be hit […]
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Date: September 16, 2024
5 Ways to Protect Your Wealth During Periods of Market Volatility
When markets are unpredictable, it can feel like your financial security is at the mercy of forces beyond your control. As a high-net-worth individual, you may be seeking the best ways to protect and nurture your hard-earned wealth when markets are volatile and unpredictable. While you can’t control the financial markets, you can control how you invest your assets and respond to various economic scenarios. Whether you’re considering switching financial advisors or exploring the best way to fine-tune your retirement […]
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Date: September 16, 2024
Small & Mids Offer “Value” Here
Wednesday saw an unusually strong reversal from early losses to gains. I saw lots of folks commenting about the last time we saw -1%+ losses turn into +1%+ gains was right at the bear market low in October 2022. To me, that’s irrelevant. Stocks had declined 20-30% in 2022 and in 2024 they were just a few percent from all-time highs. Context. People arguing that another bull market blast off of 20%+ is here is absurd. With that said, the […]
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Date: September 13, 2024
