Unwinding The Parabolic Advances
So many things I find interesting about questions from readers. Among my favorites are either asking about positions we do not own or telling me that I should have owned something. It was only earlier this year when folks from all walks of life gave me strong advice on buying silver. Both clusters were right before the collapses. I have long written that our Unloved Gems strategy missed the big semiconductor trade, having only owned Intel and Nvidia. Over the […]
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Date: July 17, 2026
Cooler Inflation Data Is Something To Celebrate But Not For Naysayers
On Tuesday and Wednesday the government released June inflation data for the CPI and PPI. I have written that our model indicated cooler inflation numbers, just as it had indicated warmer data during spring. Well folks, inflation fell much more than expected and revised data from May was cooler. Once again on social media, economic data has become political. So before I get one of those conspiracy theorist replies, I will say it again. I 100% trust the data. I […]
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Date: July 15, 2026
S&P 500 Poised For ATHs – Permas Are Just Plain Wrong
Last week’s long-term bearish post certainly generated emails and comments. Even though I couched my comments with my current non-bear market forecast, folks still only read select words and hammered me on how low the market is going now. I remain of the opinion that the worst case right now is 6-11% down and then all-time highs. The Fed will pivot by year-end to the dovish camp. Inflation is decelerating. The S&P 500 is below. Guess what folks? I think […]
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Date: July 13, 2026
Bear Market Coming But Not Like This
The other day, I wrote about some major bear market warnings. Record low cash in portfolios, Bob Shiller’s CAPE and Warren Buffett’s total stock market value divided by GDP. You can add in margin debt as well. All four of these tell us that a very large decline or outright bear market is coming. But before you get all hot and bothered, of course the next bear market is coming. These indicators just tell us that risk increased and should […]
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Date: July 10, 2026
Don’t Let Long-Term Warnings Cloud The Next Few Quarters
Thanks to all those who attended our quarterly client webinar last night. I love the questions. The more the merrier! Staying on the theme of what keeps me up at night, as I mentioned, I sleep great when our strategies are struggling. I rarely get concerned having been in the business for 38 years. I do sleep poorly and get concerned when our strategies are making unreasonable amounts of money because I know risk is elevated or high. A reckoning […]
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Date: July 8, 2026
Weaker Employment – Lower Inflation – Rate Cut
I hope everyone had a memorable 250th birthday celebration! Some friends and I did a little reminiscing about the bicentennial from our days at Camp Laurelwood in between the parties and golf and trying to stay cool. Thankfully, the heat wave broke and some much needed liquid is falling from the sky today. The June employment report was released on Thursday and it showed an increase of 57,000 new jobs, roughly half what was expected. The unemployment rate fell to […]
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Date: July 6, 2026
Pieces For A 10% Correction But No Bear Market
Happy 250th America! In true American spirit it will be hot as a firecracker in CT through July 4th, maybe a little too hot for me. Friday will be a good day to work in my ice cold office with Renee taking off in the morning and then sit in a pool after that. I can’t imagine wanting to play golf, but ya never know. We have a new month and new quarter here with lots of stats and trends. […]
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Date: July 2, 2026
Do Mid-Term Elections Affect the Stock Market? What High-Net-Worth Investors Need To Know
Worried about how the mid-term elections will impact your investments? Every two years, headlines begin predicting how a change in Washington could alter the direction of the economy and financial markets. Investors are bombarded with forecasts, political commentary, and warnings about what may happen if one party gains or loses power. For affluent households, election cycles can create pressure to make changes at exactly the wrong time. Emotional decisions during periods of political debate can interrupt years of disciplined investing […]
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Date: June 30, 2026
Stock Market Indices Rotate – Reversing Haves & Have Nots
As I have been discussing for a few weeks, the stock market’s leadership and regime have changed. The first chart is the NASDAQ 100 which is chock full of the sexy, AI and mega cap stocks. It peaked a month ago. More important, please focus on that blue arrow from last week where the index opened sharply lower. The longer the index goes without regaining the 30,500 level, the more significant the downside potentially becomes and below the June low […]
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Date: June 29, 2026
The Mid-Year Portfolio Audit: Why High-Net-Worth Investors Can’t Afford a Summer Freeze
As the summer heat settles over New England, a classic Wall Street cliché starts making the rounds in financial columns: “Sell in May and go away.” It sounds appealing: liquidate your portfolio, head to the beach, and come back in November when the market wakes up. However, markets don’t operate on vacation schedules, and applying calendar-based shortcuts to a modern retirement portfolio can be a recipe for underperformance. This article from Heritage Capital discusses why true wealth management isn’t seasonal. […]
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Date: June 26, 2026
