Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital

Fed Announcement Day – Let the Fireworks Continue!

Sorry for the delay in getting this published. We lost power in the office and that set everything back. I did enjoy zipping home to work from there for an hour and eating Costco mini chocolate chips cookies! Fed Chair Jay Powell and the FOMC conclude their first two-day meeting of 2022 today with a statement at 2pm and press conference to follow. It is no secret that the Fed’s taper plan should conclude in March and that interest rates […]   Read More
Date: January 26, 2022

The Plunge is Here – Next Opportunity for Bottom is Before Wednesday & The Fed

Before I dive in, here are the last two media segments I did over the last week or so with very specific comments on the markets over the short and intermediate-term. Investors are overloaded with mega cap tech stocks Fearless Forecast 2022 – UPDATED Three straight days of heavy selling for the stock market with Friday looking the ugliest. Wherever this decline finds a low, the fact that the selling is accelerating means that at least a trading low should […]   Read More
Date: January 24, 2022

How Tom and Sally Handled Unexpected Calamities With Very Different Results

I’d be hard-pressed to find two more-contrasting high net worth investing strategies than those employed by Tom and Sally (real people, fictitious names). Each faced turbulent markets – Tom at the start of the Great Recession and Sally during the boom, but their responses were quite different. I think it’s instructive to see what drove them to make their decisions and the outcomes those decisions produced.   Tom’s Unsuccessful Strategy Tom, 62, is an intelligent, hard-working New Haven executive, […]   Read More
Date: January 24, 2022

Market Craving Some Better Behavior

Last Friday’s little reversal is a distant memory. Tuesday saw selling right out of the gate. On Wednesday and Thursday, the bulls went to work in the morning, exactly what I did not want to see. When markets are pulling back or correcting, you would rather see weak openings that flush out sellers and entice the bulls to do some buying. The last two days broke the hearts of the bulls as early strength was heavy sold with stocks cratering […]   Read More
Date: January 21, 2022

Stocks On Their Heels Again – Looking For Low Now

Markets are still high heightened but not high volatility as the massive shift out of growth and technology and into value and cyclicals continues. Although the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 have seen very orderly, routine and modest pullbacks of less than 5%, the same cannot be said of the S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 which are down roughly 6%, 13% and 8% respectively. And there is damage being done, make no mistake about it. Last Wednesday ended […]   Read More
Date: January 18, 2022

Bulls Immediately Step Up – Inflation HOTTTT

In Monday’s post, I offered that if the pullback was normal, routine and healthy, the bulls would immediately step up. What I didn’t realize was they were going to bull rush the bears literally right away on Monday morning. And with that came the media’s gush over the “historic” price reversal. No it wasn’t. When I look at the major stock market indices, all of them show constructive behavior this week. And as I wrote about in my forecast for […]   Read More
Date: January 12, 2022

2022 Is Already Frustrating

On Friday we learned that the employment picture continues to disappoint. 199,000 new jobs were created in December which was almost 300,000 below the whisper number economists were expecting. This is not a new trend, but one that has been in place for almost a year. Wages soared yet again to 5% over the past year and that is both cause to celebrate for the worker but be concerned about inflation. Far too many do not understand how wages impact […]   Read More
Date: January 10, 2022

Why Karen’s Decision About Social Security is Just Plain Wrong

Your golden years can be a wonderful time in your life. You can enjoy the fruits of decades of labor, and prudent investing. Your retirement income is greatly determined by your savings, investing, pensions and other retirement savings. Social security is also a major determinant of your retirement income, and therefore, your standard of living as a retiree. But, before you begin taking social security, consider the pitfalls of taking it too early! “Karen” is a friend of a client […]   Read More
Date: January 10, 2022

Santa Came, Q4 & 2021 Also Up – Forecasting 2022

In November and December the media was all abuzz with the Santa Claus Rally (SCR). Would Santa arrive? Stocks were under mild pressure several times although many pundits repeatedly forecast that the highs were in for the year and there would be no year-end rally. In fact, a 10% correction had already started. Well, we all know how that ended for the bears and naysayers. Not too well. And we all know that there was no accountability for those who […]   Read More
Date: January 7, 2022

2022 Fearless Forecast – Patience & Quality

Each and every year, I spend some time in Q4 collecting my thoughts about how I see the next 12 months unfolding in the financial markets, economy, etc. Given how much media I did in Q4, most of my forecast is already in the public domain. I am happy to say that this is among the earliest I have actually put it all together in one place. Yeah me! While I do really enjoy looking into my super secret crystal […]   Read More
Date: January 6, 2022