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Tariffs Creating Investor Anxiety

Tariffs on. Tariffs off. I sense this to be a theme going forward. The longer this lasts and the more times it happens, the more the markets will price in the outcome, whatever that may be. You already know my feelings about tariffs and protectionism. I won’t rehash that everyday. In my 2025 Fearless Forecast I wrote that one of my themes was that 2025 will fell worse than it actually is. Look at the S&P 500 below. It’s really […]   Read More
Date: February 5, 2025

DeepSeek Last Monday – Tariffs Today

Tariffs will dominate the news this week as President Trump followed through on his threats against China, Canada and Mexico. I have long been against tariffs as an economic tool and I remain that way. No country can tariff its way to prosperity. No one wins a trade war. There are only losers. Yes. I fully understand that other countries do not play by the rules. But I am a free trader. I seek trade deals  not protectionism. For the […]   Read More
Date: February 3, 2025

Secure Your Golden Years: How to Effectively Plan Your Retirement in Connecticut with an AIF®

Retiring in Connecticut can be rewarding, but retirees face financial challenges. At Heritage Capital, located in Woodbridge, Connecticut, we specialize in personalized, tax-savvy strategies that help retirees protect their golden years.  The AIF® designation held by Founder and President Paul Schatz further exemplifies our commitment to the highest standards of fiduciary responsibility, ensuring that we always put your interests first. Local expertise guarantees that we address the challenges and opportunities unique to retiring in Connecticut. The Retirement Landscape in Connecticut […]   Read More
Date: February 3, 2025

Not A Market To Chase

Since Monday’s plunge the stock market has recovered “nicely”. However, the S&P 500 hasn’t gone anywhere in two months. The NASDAQ 100 either. Lots of chop in a trading range which is pretty much what I laid out in my 2025 Fearless Forecast, the year momentum died. Up, down, sideways, lots of frustration. I see it in our models. Some are full bore exposed at 200% and 300%. Others have very low exposure. And they’re moving all the time. It’s […]   Read More
Date: January 31, 2025

Hawkish Pause From The Fed? Market Not In Great Shape

The model for today’s Fed day is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. A high probability long trade was setting up nicely until yesterday’s rally. Now it’s just a coin flip. Jay Powell and the FOMC will take no action today although he may offer a hawkish pause where rates stay the same but his rhetoric is hawkish. The 2-Year Note currently sits at 4.21% with the Fed Funds Rate at 4.33%. That is as neutral […]   Read More
Date: January 29, 2025

All-Time High S&P 500 – Is It The Selling Opp I Forecast?

Welcome back to a new week. I rooted for the Commanders. They lost. I rooted harder for the Bills. They lost. I hate the Eagles and the Chiefs. I rooted for the UCONN men. They lost. And I was so looking forward to visiting clients in Florida today where it will be 80 degrees. I think I have the flu and I canceled my trip. It’s okay. I can handle all the adversity! On Friday the S&P 500 hit fresh, […]   Read More
Date: January 27, 2025

Fearless Forecast 2025 – Part II Calm Before The Storm

Finishing up the equities portion of the 2025 Fearless Forecast, let’s turn to sectors. Last year, I said that technology would not lead again, but also would not lag. And it finished in the middle. I liked financials, healthcare, biotechnology, energy and REITs. While financials led the market, the other sector picks lagged. For 2025, I see the same impact by tech. And I am going back to the well with biotech, energy and healthcare plus regional banks and retail […]   Read More
Date: January 24, 2025

S&P 500 Poised For New Highs

Price-wise, the bulls had another good day on Friday with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 leading the way to sizable gains. It was a strong five days for the bulls coming off meeting my minimum downside target last Monday. To poke holes, after the open, price didn’t do anything. It just meandered about most of the day. And there were only 600 more stocks going than down on a solid rally. That number should have been higher. Let’s also […]   Read More
Date: January 21, 2025

Fearless Forecast 2025 – The Year Momentum Died

I have been publishing my Fearless Forecast for more than 30 years. I don’t know many or really any other advisor that sticks their neck out like this year in and year out. That’s one of the many reasons why we are different. I love producing original content, especially when it flies in the face of consensus or conventional wisdom. Our industry has a lot of lazy people. I don’t know how individual investors tolerate and accept the regurgitation of […]   Read More
Date: January 20, 2025

So Far So Good For The Bulls

Since my minimum downside target was met on Monday the bulls’ response has been solid across the major stock market indices. All have rallied smartly. Below are the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. While the former looks to be in better shape than the latter, the Russell has more upside potential simply because it sold off the most. Several things still bother me. Sentiment never fully cycled to bearish although market internals did. I don’t love the leadership set up […]   Read More
Date: January 17, 2025

Minimum Downside Met – Banks Teed Up Into Earnings

The S&P 500 met my minimum downside target for a low because it breached the December lows and closed below them as well. However, that doesn’t mean the bottom is in for sure. We just have to watch and see how the market behaves. This is not one of those bell-ringing, close your eyes and buy situation. I think that happens either later this quarter or later this year. In the chart below of the S&P 500 you can see […]   Read More
Date: January 15, 2025

7 Retirement Dos and Don’ts for High-Net-Worth Individuals

We at Heritage Capital assist high-net-worth individuals in navigating the increasingly complex issues of retirement. Whether crafting a multigenerational wealth strategy or aligning investments with retirement goals, we tailor our services to fit your special needs. Our goal is to help you pursue financial independence while preserving and growing your wealth. Our team, led by Paul Schatz, holder of the Accredited Investment Fiduciary (AIF®) Designation, is dedicated to providing you with the best strategies for retirement planning. Based in Woodbridge, […]   Read More
Date: January 13, 2025

Stocks Break Down – Plenty Of Reasons To Support Bull Market

After the economy created 100,000 more jobs than expected, stocks and bonds decided that was bad news and promptly sold off. Makes sense, right? No, it really doesn’t although as I wrote about on Friday it is because the perception is now less help from the Fed. I have also been waiting to see if stocks poked to new highs first and then we could sell or if they fell below December’s low which would hasten a buying opportunity. The […]   Read More
Date: January 12, 2025

New Jobs Soar – Markets May Not Like That

The government released the December employment report this morning. Surprisingly, the economy created 100,000 more new jobs than economists forecast. This is great news on the surface that the economy continues to hum along. It also speaks volumes to the lack of forecasting ability by economists with this very volatile monthly number. Here’s the problem. The current market regime is that good news is bad news because the Fed will provide less accommodation through lower rates. So while the economy […]   Read More
Date: January 11, 2025

Bears Thwart Bulls To Own The Edge

The S&P 500 remains in the same trading range I have been discussing. On Monday I thought the bulls had the ball and would run to at least 6050 before the bears would start to fight. The bulls lost steam on the way and the bears pounded in a big way on Tuesday. We also saw more significant selling on Tuesday, especially in the tech sector. For now, we have to sit back and tolerate the frustration of not having […]   Read More
Date: January 8, 2025

Who Sucked $330 Billion Out Of The Markets?

As we now have confirmation, the Santa Claus Rally failed in 2024. I will dig up the stats about the negativity for Q1 and report back shortly. Here is what I learned over the weekend from my friend Rob Hanna of Quantifiable Edges about the last week of December which is always ripe for massive portfolio games. It’s kinda wonky but I will give you the high level view. First, the Fed sold more than $30 billion of securities from […]   Read More
Date: January 6, 2025

New Year, New Resolutions: Financial Planning for Retirees in Connecticut 2025

As we enter 2025, retirees in Connecticut have a unique opportunity to reassess and refine their financial strategies to better achieve their retirement goals amidst the state’s specific economic landscape. Goal setting is crucial, especially for Connecticut retirees facing unique financial challenges and opportunities. Financial resolutions tailored to the state’s economic landscape can significantly protect your future. A new year is a terrific time to reassess your financial situation and take positive steps toward improvement. Heritage Capital, the leading provider […]   Read More
Date: January 6, 2025

Looks Like The Grinch Won

While there is still one day left in the famed Santa Claus Rally (SCR), the S&P 500 would need to close above 5974. That’s a tall task given that it closed at 5869 last night. Assuming we don’t see a 100 point rally the SCR failure would usher in some bearish studies for Q1. I will touch on those next week. For sure, detractors will claim that the SCR failed last year and 2023 was a monster year so we […]   Read More
Date: January 3, 2025

Santa Leaving Coal

The Santa Claus Rally (SCR) was teed up beautifully as I wrote last week. The markets had that one-day plunge from Jay Powell’s less than stellar press conference and the bears followed through the next day to a small degree. Then we had that emotional reversal 9 days ago on the largest expiration of derivatives of the year and I think of all-time. As we know from decades in the markets, just because something looks perfect it doesn’t mean that […]   Read More
Date: December 30, 2024

Creating a Sustainable Retirement Lifestyle

Retirement should be a time to enjoy the rewards of your hard work, but one question often on the minds of most retirees: Will my money last? For many retirees, the ultimate goal is creating a lifestyle that balances comfort and financial security without unnecessary stress. Yet, the financial world is unpredictable. Market volatility and rising costs disrupt even the best-laid plans. That’s why building a sustainable retirement lifestyle is vital. It’s not just about saving enough—it’s about managing your […]   Read More
Date: December 23, 2024