Is This 1999 All Over Again? Semiconductors Partying Big Time
There has been so much chatter lately that this is a repeat of 1999. It’s not. People are all over Twitter comparing AI to the Dotcom stocks. They’re dead wrong. Other people are forecasting financial Armageddon worse than Dotcom and 2008. That’s laughable. When I push back on the notion that this is 1999 again, people call me a “perma-bull” or tell me that I am not analyzing it correctly. For decades I have said that bubbles are generational. The […]
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Date: May 11, 2026
An Opp For The Bears?
First, the answer is emphatically, NO. This is not 1999. Thursday’s action might give the bears some ammunition, at least for a mild pullback or pause. Let’s look at the S&P 400 below. Similar to what happened in mid-April, there was a rejection in price at new highs. 3750 becomes a loose line in the sand for the bears to defend on the upside. Similarly, the Russell 2000 below also saw price rejection at new highs. Just below 2900 becomes […]
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Date: May 8, 2026
Interest Rates Are Front & Center
After yesterday’s action I would have thought there would be a pause or mild pullback today. Pre-market trading shows a jump up at the open based on yet more strong earnings and oil trading lower. It’s amazing how the negative the narrative continues to be regarding the economy and earnings. I laugh when people say that the economy is really weak but earnings are really good. Just think about that for a minute. We continue to see all-time highs in […]
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Date: May 5, 2026
Beyond the 60/40 Portfolio: Why High-Net-Worth Portfolios Need Active Risk Modeling in 2026
For decades, the static 60/40 portfolio was championed as the definitive solution for a long-lasting retirement. The idea was simple: equities provided growth, and bonds provided ballast when markets declined. However, in today’s environment, that assumption deserves a much closer look. Several cracks have emerged for this traditional portfolio model, including the impact of increased longevity and major market volatility at the very moment you need your capital most. This article from Heritage Capital discusses why a rigid 60/40 allocation […]
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Date: May 5, 2026
***Q1 Client Report***
One thing is for sure; the past 15 months have not been quiet. On an apolitical basis, Donald Trump does not like when things are status quo. He doesn’t like copacetic. He seems to create or encourage chaos, which is a well-known style of management, like it or not. I would almost go as far as to say that President Trump is most successful when he is successful using chaos theory. Whether you love or hate the president, my comments […]
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Date: May 4, 2026
Very Strong Seasonal Stats To Year-End
May starts today and seasonal trends show a strongly bullish day setting up, not in magnitude, but in the odds of an up day. Additionally, when the S&P 500 is up 5%+ in April, the next 8 months are up more than 80% of the time by roughly 3%. And when the S&P 500 is up 10%+ through April, the rest of the year is very strong with the exception of 1987. After the FOMC left interest rates unchanged, very […]
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Date: May 1, 2026
***Fed Meeting Update – Powell’s Last Stand***
Today is Jay Powell’s last FOMC meeting as chair. While I think he will also leave the Fed when Kevin Warsh is confirmed, it is possible that he remains in governorship role, if only as a foil to President Trump. The stock market model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. Jay Powell has had the worst stock market track record of any Fed chair post the 2pm announcement. He has also had the […]
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Date: April 29, 2026
Participation Strong – Small & Mids Will Catch Up
Quick blog as I am traveling at a conference. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 followed their pre-market behavior and scored new highs again.The Russell 2000, below, and S&P 400 have not, at least not yet. I expect both indices to score new highs in the coming days and weeks. Yes, I do know that the indices are being led by a handful of stocks. Led doesn’t mean only. The big, sexy stocks are leading. In the upper chart you will […]
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Date: April 27, 2026
Masses Still On Wrong Side – Milestone Coming Up
It hasn’t really felt like the rally has paused over the past few days. But it has in the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, S&P 400 and Russell 2000. Only the NASDAQ 100 has powered ahead. The stock market is back to being led by a handful of high profile tech stocks. My friend, Tiny, and I sometimes kid about the strength of a trend. In this case, we would ask each other, “will the market ever go down again?” Of […]
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Date: April 24, 2026
Reversal For The Bears But Dips Should Be Shallow
Two days of pause by the bulls as I described on Monday. That creates a “buy the dip” situation in the strongest markets. The downside in the S&P 500 is another 1% lower. That’s a trade I will take. The Russell 2000 is below. Yesterday’s action was a strong downside reversal which is only confirmed if there is follow through selling today. Looking at pre-market trading, that is not the case as the bulls look ready to thwart the bears […]
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Date: April 22, 2026
More Indices Joining The New Highs Party
What a peaceful weekend I had set up. Teri was going away for a family function. Only the little guy was home and he had baseball and social plans. Man plans. God laughs. We decided to migrate our DNS from Digital Ocean back to Godaddy. We decided to migrate our email servers from Google to Microsoft on Friday afternoon. If that wasn’t enough tech overload I decided to buy a new phone Saturday night. So I spent the weekend in […]
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Date: April 20, 2026
All-Time Highs Well Before July 4th
Throughout the recent 9% pullback, I was adamant that the stock market would return to new highs by July 4th. That wasn’t a guess or a narrative. It was based on the same logic and data that had me forecast new highs during 2025’s tariff tantrum plunge of almost 20%. It wasn’t a complex model or algorithm. Rather, at the January 2026 peak, the stock market’s foundation was strong. We did not see a plethora of divergences or non-confirmations from […]
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Date: April 17, 2026
Will 2026 Mirror 2025’s Bottom?
Today is tax day. YIPPEE! On the one hand, at least it’s over and the government and I are now even. On the other hand, it’s painful to watch the money leave my account. Although I am a low tax guy and pro-growth, I am not in the “tax is theft” camp. The government does need revenue to provide basic services. We can all argue about how efficiently they do this. I am fine paying taxes. If I earn it, […]
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Date: April 15, 2026
From Euphoria To Panic: How Disciplined Portfolio Managers Are Responding
Not long ago, artificial intelligence stocks were viewed as unstoppable. Precious metals were breaking out. Cryptocurrencies were attracting aggressive capital flows. Optimism was widespread. Today, sentiment looks very different. Technology names that led the rally are experiencing sharp reversals. Crypto markets have seen significant drawdowns. Precious metals have swung violently. Investors who felt confident months ago are now anxious. Volatility is not unusual. Emotional extremes are. Many investors consume headlines rather than studying underlying data. They focus on geopolitical narratives […]
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Date: April 14, 2026
News Get Worse But Reactions Do Not – Oil, Stocks And Profits
News of the negotiations with Iran turning south hit over the weekend. I read way too much nonsense about the coming stock market crash and recession. Remember what I always say? It’s not the new; it’s how markets react to the news. It wasn’t long ago when a spike in oil would cause large moves in other asset prices. That’s because sudden large and unexpected price movements a do not give markets time to adapt and adjust. Once markets pivot […]
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Date: April 13, 2026
Models Negative – Semis & Transports Click ATHs
News of a ceasefire caused the stock market to soar on Wednesday with some follow through on Thursday. That move has the S&P 500 just above the upper end of my bounce range at 6800. Was that it? Another “V” shaped bottom is in and new highs are coming by July 4th as I forecast? Count me as skeptical for now, bu tot willing to die on that hill. First, many of our aggressive models not only went to neutral […]
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Date: April 10, 2026
The “U-Shaped” Jobs Market: What Strong Employment Data Means for Your 2026 Retirement Date
A strong jobs report is typically viewed as good news. Headlines describe “blockbuster” hiring. Markets react, and confidence can rise. But what does a strong labor report actually mean if you’re within a few years of retirement? Employment data can affect interest rates, asset prices, and economic expectations. It doesn’t automatically lower your property taxes, reduce healthcare costs, or shorten your retirement horizon. This Heritage Capital article examines the 2026 U-shaped labor market, its potential impact on your target retirement […]
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Date: April 8, 2026
March Job Growth Soars, But – Stock Market Bounces, But
Greetings from Midway Airport in Chicago where we are connecting from Indy to fly home. It’s a been such a fun almost week of travel although the outcomes were not what UCONN nation had hoped for. We did spend most of our time at one of my favorite resorts in one of my favorite cities, Scottsdale, AZ. The sunsets just never get old. While the markets were closed for Good Friday, the government released the monthly employment report and it […]
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Date: April 7, 2026
THE Bottom? “A” Bottom? Dead Rat Bounce?
Greetings from 38,000 feet as I head to Phoenix to cheer on the UCONN women in the Final Four. These events are always so much fun and you never know when it will be the last one, at least for a while. Well, similar to Q1 2025, the last three months were “interesting” to say the least. This year it was Iran. Last year it was tariffs. Anyone want to guess what next year will bring? A new month and […]
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Date: April 1, 2026
Almost There
Friday was an ugly day for the bulls on top of Thursday’s rout. One or two more days like that should create enough panic to wash out the remaining sellers and give us a low. What we don’t want is an intervening weak rally based on some geopolitical headline. When a decline begins to look like a waterfall like the S&P 500 does below, it’s time to have laser focus. Prune the low conviction holdings. Add to high conviction ones. […]
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Date: March 30, 2026
