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Ready or Not, October is Here – Major Bottom Coming

Seasonal trends are like headwinds and tailwinds. They typically do not act as buy or sell signals. Nonetheless, the trends I wrote about a month ago definitely played out. The S&P 500 lost 10% in September and its reputation as a cruel month plays out again. When I penned September is a Cruel Month I did not think that September would be down 10%. That’s a huge outlier in the distribution of monthly returns. And let’s recall that the stock […]   Read More
Date: October 3, 2022

Stock Market Not Reacting To The June Lows Yet

So far, the stock market has not responded to the June lows, meaning that we didn’t see any trap door selling nor a rush of buying. The reaction has been muted. I don’t think that helps. You can see the S&P 500 below, but the rest look similar except for the Dow Industrials. Okay. I will show the Dow as well below. It broke the June lows but hasn’t been able to quickly get back above it. What all this […]   Read More
Date: September 30, 2022

Should Your IRA Include Real-Estate Investments?

If you have a self-directed IRA, you can hold a variety of different investments, such as stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. In fact, this kind of retirement plan allows investing in all types of real estate, including commercial properties and residential homes.  However, before you decide to pursue this option, let’s examine some of the pros and cons of utilizing your IRA this way.  The following topics are discussed below: What is a self-directed IRA (SIDRA)? The differences between SIDRAs […]   Read More
Date: September 29, 2022

Something Breaking Part II

So far, the only index to really break the June lows has been the Dow Industrials. The S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 did a quick dive and recovery which likely stopped out many traders. At this point that does not qualify as a terminating move from which a major rally emerges although the stock market is getting closer both in terms of price and time. I have been targeting October and its bear killing history and nothing has […]   Read More
Date: September 28, 2022

The Rocky Road & Silver Lining – How & When The Stock Market Bottoms

Stocks fell hard again on Thursday and Friday morning before firming into the weekend during the last two hours. Late day Friday comebacks are always suspect but a low isn’t impossible. In fact, the stock market should be close to at least a trading low and likely this week before perhaps rolling over to one more decline before the ultimate bottom. Rosh Hashanah begins tonight at sundown and the old adage is to sell before the holiday and buy when […]   Read More
Date: September 26, 2022

Something Breaking Somewhere

The S&P 500 ended last week at 3873. Today, it stands at 3757. Unless the index rallies more than 100 points today, the weakest week in the weakest month in the weakest year will have struck again. Some wondered whether last week’s weakness was front running this week. We now know that was not the case. The odds were high that this week would be down, clearly not by this magnitude because long-term studies never get that right with so […]   Read More
Date: September 23, 2022

***SPECIAL Fed Update – Recession & 50% Rally in Stocks***

Here we go again. Today is Fed day. I am sure we will hear that it is the single most important decision the Fed has ever made. Blah, blah, blah. Powell and the Fed have been crystal clear, of late. Rates will continue higher until something is broken, or thereabouts. Before I get further into this, let me state that the model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. Given that stocks have sold […]   Read More
Date: September 21, 2022

Weakest Week – Weakest Month – Weakest Year

If you ever wanted to see how the four big quarterly expirations can impact stock prices, look no further than last Friday afternoon. Stocks opened lower and traded sideways until the lunchtime lull ended around 2pm. And then the big players had to square up their books into the close which likely caused the sharp rally into 4pm. We always hear pundits whine and moan about the computer algorithms, especially when downside movements are exacerbated. We rarely investors complain on […]   Read More
Date: September 19, 2022

Is Your Financial Advisor Overcharging You?

As you get older, it’s important to have a financial plan in place. This can help to make sure your golden years are secure and comfortable—and for most people, that means hiring a wealth manager. However, with so many options on the market, it can be difficult to know whether your financial advisor is really making the best decisions for your money over the long term.  If you’re concerned that you might be getting overcharged, there are some signs to […]   Read More
Date: September 19, 2022

Stocks Cranky as 2-Year Note Soars Again

On Wednesday I shared that huge, outsized plunges like we saw on Tuesday do not typically mark the final low. We didn’t have to wait long as stocks fell again on Thursday below Tuesday’s low and Friday’s open looks to be another very weak one. I mentioned how important the U.S. dollar was to the markets and how seeing it peak was essential for stocks and bonds to form a low. Today, let’s look at the 2-year treasury note. It’s […]   Read More
Date: September 16, 2022

Stocks Collapse, Bottom Not In & Fox Business Calls

First, I am super excited to join my friend and the most dapper man on TV, Charles Payne, on Fox Business between 2 & 3pm today discussing the mini-crash, what lies ahead and where opportunities lie for investors. Well, well, well as my daughter used to say all the time as a toddler when trying to explain herself out of something. Tuesday was certainly an interesting day. The Consumer Price Index didn’t cooperate as so many pundits had predicted. And […]   Read More
Date: September 14, 2022

9-11, Queen E, Greenback & What August Portends

Before I dive into the matters at hand, yesterday was 9-11. Every year, either live or DVR, I watch the names being read of those lost and listen for my old friends’ names. It’s a solemn reminder to Never Forget and as a firm continue to support top notch 9-11 charities like Tunnel to Towers. As we have in the past, we will donate 100% of the profits for the day to these causes on behalf of our clients. 35 […]   Read More
Date: September 12, 2022

For The Economy, The Worst is Yet to Come

In my last update on Tuesday, I spoke about how crummy the stock market looked but that it was oversold enough to bounce this week. In addition, I said that when August closes weak, the odds heavily favor a post-Labor Day bounce. And the market has had a nice week for the bulls with pre-market showing good gains to begin the day. While the S&P 500 may have room to move up to 4100-4150, I do not believe the September […]   Read More
Date: September 9, 2022

Deluge

Labor Day weekend in New England is always bittersweet as the unofficial end of summer and back to school. The drought-stricken Northeast is finally getting some relief and currently in a deluge. I think we have 5 inches of rain so far and it’s still coming down in buckets. The stock market has been no different of late with a deluge of its own, falling almost 9% since the mid-August peak and back to down 19% on the year. Some […]   Read More
Date: September 6, 2022

September is a Cruel Month

The cruel month of September is here and it’s uglier when the month begins in a downtrend like it is now. August ended up working out similar to what I wrote about a month ago. On average September is down more than 1% with 50 out of the last 90 being lower overall. In a downtrend, 27/38 have been lower with losses exceeding 3%. In midterm election years, 60% of Septembers have been down. If you’re looking for a bright […]   Read More
Date: September 2, 2022

Powell Hangover Continues

The risk markets continue their post-Powell decline from Friday. The S&P 500 has just about reached its short-term downside target of roughly 3950, but we have not seen a solid attempt at a low just yet. Last week I was concerned about the poor action in junk bonds and that continued this week, so much so that we were forced to unwind our various positions at the same time as we were reducing stock market exposure. August ended up playing […]   Read More
Date: August 31, 2022

Powell Pours Cold Water on The Markets

On Friday, I came in with a very specific plan for the day. I was looking to be a seller overall, but I really wanted to see how the markets reacted to Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech rather than what he actually said. First, I was surprised at just how hawkish and stern his remarks were. I kept waiting for the “but” or “however” which never came. He never even hinted at the elusive soft landing like we saw in […]   Read More
Date: August 29, 2022

Is Your 401(k) Taking on Too Much Risk?

People may envision themselves sitting on a beach and sipping Mai Tais when they think of retirement. This isn’t a bad image, but it isn’t complete—unless you have a plan to fund your golden-years income. I know what you’re thinking: “Retirement? Who cares about that? It’s so far away.” The problem is that if your 401(k) isn’t reviewed often enough, your future income could be significantly less than you are expecting to live on. So, let’s explore why it’s important […]   Read More
Date: August 29, 2022

All Eyes on Powell

Today is the big day when we hear Fed Chair Jay Powell speak from the KC Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. I wonder if he will take the beautiful hike to Jenny Lake or visit the Million Dollar Cowboy Bar in town? I love Jackson. It’s such a great place although the rich and famous seem to have discovered it this century and prices have skyrocketed. Disappointingly for the bulls, markets have rallied into his speech. I would have […]   Read More
Date: August 26, 2022

Skunked

It was a fantastic start to my evening. We finally got some rain. The Yankees were up 2-1 over the Mets. My good friend got some really great, I mean generational news. Then the Yankees blundered followed by a loud scream at the house. Not one, but both dogs got sprayed by a skunk. Not our first skunk rodeo. We cordoned them off in the mud room, the dogs not the Yankees who eventually won. Off to the store I […]   Read More
Date: August 24, 2022