Concerns Growing
As you know price action in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 has been strong. All-time highs were seen this week. October is a funky month and performance depends on how the stock market was positioned coming into the month. We also know that strength is usually front-loaded, meaning better returns earlier in the month. I have often labeled this market (and the economy) as the “haves and have nots”. It has not been a rising tides lifting all […]
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Date: October 9, 2026
New Highs For Some But Risk Lurks
We’ve seen a nice rally in stocks although the mid and small caps still cannot lead. They seem to just get dragged up with the leaders. And I don’t sense that will change until yields stop popping which should be closer at hand. The S&P 400 is first, not exactly a pillar of strength. It needs to stop making new lows. The Russell 2000 is below. It’s even weaker than the S&P 400 and it is set up to revisit […]
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Date: October 7, 2026
Economy Strong – Answering Your Questions on Moderna & SpaceX
On Friday, the September employment report came in less than expected with only 29,000 new jobs being created after a much stronger number in August which was revised lower. The silver lining is that people finally returned to the workforce. Following all this? It’s very noisy, not because of some government conspiracy, but rather the data collection methods need billions of dollars and Congress won’t spend the money. My thesis was that we would see a weaker but not weak […]
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Date: October 5, 2026
Here’s October & Q4 – Lots Of Stats On What History Says
My publishing schedule has been off over the past week or so. That should be back to normal as of today. With media on Monday and Wednesday next week as well as our quarterly webinar, I should be super focused and efficient. But you know what they say? Man plans, God laughs. Q4 is here and the fireworks that go along with it. Let’s start with October which people associate with stock market crashes and plunges. 1929, 1987, 1990, 1997, […]
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Date: October 2, 2026
What Is High-Net-Worth? A Heritage Capital Guide for 2027
What does it actually mean to be high-net-worth? Many professionals and retirees with $500,000, $1 million, or even several million dollars don’t necessarily consider themselves wealthy. Inflation, housing costs, healthcare expenses, taxes, market volatility, and decades of retirement ahead can make substantial savings feel less substantial than the numbers suggest. Financial institutions, however, use specific asset levels to classify affluent and high-net-worth investors. In this Heritage Capital guide, we’ll explain how high-net-worth is defined, explore the difference between total net […]
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Date: September 30, 2026
Bond Yields “Dangerously” Surge – WHY?
Last month, it took us 24 hours, door to door, to get home from a remote village in the French Alps. The other day, it took us 26 hours, door to door, to get home from Miami without weather causing issues. Avelo, the official airline of Heritage Capital and the Schatz family, totally let us down. Between a diversion to another airport, flight attendant illness, crew timeout, towing the plane and the need for more fuel, it was an epic […]
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Date: September 29, 2026
Tax Mitigation Strategies for High-Net-Worth Investors Adapting to 2026 Estate Tax Rules
For high-net-worth Connecticut individuals and families, estate taxes can become a larger concern as investments, businesses, and real estate appreciate. Estate-tax planning isn’t only about what happens after death. Gifting, trusts, retirement accounts, investment ownership, and decisions involving appreciating assets can affect how much wealth ultimately reaches your heirs. In this article from Heritage Capital, we’ll examine the federal and Connecticut estate tax rules for 2026, along with various techniques that affluent families are utilizing. What Are the Federal and […]
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Date: September 29, 2026
New Highs? Really?
It looks like the weakest week of the year was a dud. And I mentioned on Monday, the September 16 low now has significance because stocks rallied as they should have. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are leading and poised to score new highs next week against the backdrop of weak internals. Failing here would have bearish consequences below that Sep 16 low. With bond yields continuing to rise, pressure remains on the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 […]
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Date: September 25, 2026
The Weakest Week Of The Year Versus A Low Of Significance
First, let me state that this week is the weakest week of the year for the stock market. That’s inarguable. It’s just data and facts. On Twitter last week, I posted that if Wednesday’s low has significance then stocks will rally this week. Of course, folks pushed back about the weakest week. The bulls had a monster day on Monday while I wasn’t watching. Funny how the market does that to me sometimes. Don’t get me wrong. I am not […]
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Date: September 22, 2026
Warsh 0-3 – Huge & Weak Rally
Kevin Warsh is now 0-3 on Fed day. The FOMC did exactly what the markets expected and priced in. But it was the shortened press conference that unleashed the selling. More rate hikes are coming and I remain on the other side of the issue. I remain firm that the Fed is going to have to pivot and do a mea culpa. If I am wrong, you know I have no problem calling that out. With the little plunge on […]
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Date: September 18, 2026
***Special Fed Day Alert – Rate Hike, A Set Up As Good As It Gets For The Bulls, Buy Bonds***
Today is Fed day and one of the more anticipated ones. The stock market model is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. This is based on several decades of data and not just 2026. The stock market has not been kind on Fed days this year and certainly not to my old friend, Kevin Warsh. I believe the last five Fed days have been victories for the bears. Warsh’s two Fed day have seen late day […]
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Date: September 16, 2026
AI Crisis – Dad, Is It Time To Buy?
AI is the negative story of the day with pre-market showing 1%+ losses in the NASDAQ 100. The other indices are down less. My astute youngest son texted me this morning to ask if there was enough worry and panic to start buying again. He offered that he heard his friends all talking about the end of AI. The AI story isn’t over. The AI investment isn’t over. The short-term AI trade is getting closer to offering more reward than […]
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Date: September 14, 2026
Remembering 9-11 & Market Scenario Update
Remembering 9-11 & Market Scenario Update On Tuesday we bought more QLD, more MQQQ and more PINK. We sold GDX. On Wednesday we bought JAAA and more QLD. We sold XLU, some DWAS, some SLB and some MANH. On Thursday we bought SPY. We sold SPCX, XOP and VGK.
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Date: September 11, 2026
Calendar Helps Bulls This Week
I hope you had a enjoyable holiday weekend. Lots of fun stuff on our end with golf and cookouts and social events and seeing more people than I can count. And tow fantasy footbal drafts last night. My wife rolled in a 10 foot birdie putt on our first mixed couples hole from my iron shot in which I turned into a 30 foot fish tale by the end of the evening. Summer is unofficially over and this Super El […]
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Date: September 8, 2026
Bounce Came – Now What?
Greetings from 38,000 feet where we are returning home from a week in the French Alps celebrating my closest friend’s 60th birthday with seven couples. He has hosted couples every 10 years since his 30th and each event gets bigger and better. He’s a thrill seeker so these trips push you to your limits and get you far out of your comfort zone, like paragliding at 5,000 feet. Thursday was a strong day for the bulls, price-wise. It was underwhelming […]
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Date: September 4, 2026
Bears In Control
September certainly started with the bears in control as stocks lost roughly 1% overall. That’s three straight weak days which creates a bounce set up. What has become everyone’s favorite index, the small caps, has sold off the most. More downside is ahead and I would view any bounce as a selling opp until proven otherwise. While my thesis remains the same for more downside, further research on September is more positive, showing an average gain of 1% when the […]
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Date: September 2, 2026
Little Reaction In Stocks From Warsh, Bigger Elsewhere
As expected, Kevin Warsh did not set off any fireworks from Jackson Hole on Friday. He was a touch hawkish, possibly setting the markets up for a rate hike. As you know, I am on the other side of that trade, believing all year that the Fed’s next move would be a rate cut later in 2026. And while Warsh may make me look foolish next month, I still see a Fed pivot coming sometime in Q4 or early Q1 […]
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Date: August 31, 2026
Nvidia’s Blockbuster – Warsh Up Next
One big catalyst for the week down in Nvidia. As I wrote twice heading into the number, I loved that the stock was weak into earnings and that sentiment had turned sour. My plan was to add to the position on a big gap down which did not happen. Rather, the earnings report was such a blockbuster against a negative backdrop that I just held the position we had in Unloved Gems.The stock gapped up and tacked on more gains […]
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Date: August 28, 2026
Beyond “Buy-and-Hold”: Why HNWIs in Connecticut Are Switching Financial Advisors for Retirement
High-net-worth wealth isn’t built and maintained by accepting average results. Yet many affluent families in Connecticut settle for static, “set-it-and-forget-it” retirement plans. The broker-client relationship that helped you build your first million is rarely equipped to manage, preserve, and eventually pass down a multi-million-dollar portfolio. If your advisor relies on calendar-based portfolio rebalancing or fails to actively manage downside risk, it’s not just a minor annoyance; it can become a genuine threat to your retirement. This can create what many […]
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Date: August 26, 2026
Nvidia’s Overhang End – NASDAQ 100 Still Vulnerable – Volatility Percolating
Summer doldrums are likely to end today with Nvidia reporting earnings. People ask why I am sometimes hostile to the media. Case in point. This morning, Sorkin made some stupid comment that this may be the most important earnings report ever. I think he added that it was “bigger than the markets”. I mean, come on. Give me the break of all breaks. Good thing hyperbole hasn’t entered. No one on earth believes the report won’t be eye-poppingly spectacular. The […]
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Date: August 26, 2026
