Is “A” Bottom or “THE” Bottom? The Window is Open

Monday was the first time in a month where some signs popped up of at least a short-term rally beginning. The bears waited all of one day to squash that notion as Tuesday was another win for the bears. Wednesday looked even better than Monday in terms of the market groping for a little low. We shall see what happens today. The most beaten down, ugliest indices, small and mid caps, have been hanging in this week. Here is the […]   Read More
Date: September 28, 2023

Window For a Bottom Opens – VIX Needs to Spike

After being off for Yom Kippur yesterday, it feels like a Monday today. Markets behaved poorly to end last week, but hung in okay on Monday against another spike in long-term interest rates. Stocks are under pressure in the pre-market today. They need to close in the upper half of their range today to indicate at least a very short-term rally has begun. As I discussed last week, the window for a stock market low is now open as the […]   Read More
Date: September 26, 2023

Retirement Amid 2024 Uncertainties: Planning Ahead with Confidence

2024 could be very challenging, with the potential for a recession during an election year. In other words, several uncertainties could increase market volatility. This uncertainty is compounded if you plan to retire in 2024 or recently retire. You may have a lot of questions or concerns about the future and what you can do to minimize certain risks:    Should I retire in 2024? Have I saved enough for 30 years of retirement? How will market volatility affect my plans? […]   Read More
Date: September 25, 2023

Pullback Accelerates

First, lets’ start off with the Fed model which was woefully wrong on Wednesday, calling for a post-2pm rally. When markets don’t do what they’re supposed to do, they often accelerate in the opposite direction which is what we saw on Thursday. The two-day decline was real, lopping 2-4% off of the major stock market indices. Below is the S&P 500. At the close it met my minimum downside target of breaching the August low. You can see the two […]   Read More
Date: September 22, 2023

Fed Stands Pat – Stocks Should Rally

It’s Fed day and an uneventful one at that. Interest rates will not be going up today. That’s what everyone expects and what we will hear at 2pm. Before that the model says plus or minus 0.50% in the stock market and then the usual bigger moves after the Fed news breaks. With the recent weakness, the model says the bulls have the upper hand today. I also do not think the Fed will say anything about a pause for […]   Read More
Date: September 20, 2023

Dreaming of Retirement? Here’s What $3 Million Can Get You

Let’s say you’ve tucked away $3 million for your retirement years in Hartford or New Haven, Connecticut. It might sound like a large amount, but in today’s world of economic uncertainty, inflation, and rising longevity, it’s important to know the real purchasing power of your savings.  In this blog, we’ll explore how viable it is to retire with $3 million in savings and how you can effectively manage these assets with comprehensive retirement planning. Let’s dive in. 1. Retirement Spending […]   Read More
Date: September 18, 2023

The Weakest Week of the Weakest Month Already in Pullback Mode

And so begins the weakest week of the weakest month of the year. In fact, for all of September’s ominous tones, you can attribute more than 100% of the negativity to this week. (hat tip to my friend Rob Hanna of Quantifiable Edges) Now, before you start thinking about crashes and collapses, let’s remember that we are talking about an average, not a certainty. And last Friday was down decently against the backdrop of the auto strike and one of […]   Read More
Date: September 18, 2023

Risk Increasing – Important Time to Pay Attention

The stock market had a nice rally on Thursday. And price is getting closer to the upper line in the sand, 4555 or so where my thesis for another pullback would be more difficult. So far, the markets have done nothing wrong to negate further upside, but risk should begin to increase today. The next few weeks have a very negative seasonal headwind and there is major labor strike in the country. Interestingly, mega cap tech is not the sexy […]   Read More
Date: September 15, 2023

CPI & Dollar Warm

Just a quick note today. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a bit hotter than forecast, but that’s what the data were pointing at. I have written that inflation was likely finding a floor in the mid 3% area and that some increase was coming. But remember, the economy and markets are in very different places than they were two plus years ago when the Fed was well behind the curve. Now, Powell & company seem to have gone […]   Read More
Date: September 13, 2023

Bulls Not Convincing, Yet

9-11 is always a difficult day. Everyone seems to know someone who perished in that unspeakable, cowardly terrorist attack. I lost a childhood friend and a fraternity brother. Many or most years, I repeat my story that day. I just don’t have the mental energy today. I simply hope that no one ever forgets what happened. Stocks are in the midst of what I think will end up being a feeble bounce. Sure, I could be grossly wrong and the […]   Read More
Date: September 11, 2023

Stock Market in a Vulnerable Position

The stock market is now in a vulnerable position. Vulnerable doesn’t mean crash or bear market or even a decline. It just means that the path of least resistance is lower, not today or any day, just in general. The S&P 500 as seen below is now caught between last week’s high and the August lows. For the vulnerable regime to pass, we want to see either price level exceeded on a daily closing basis. I will speculate and say […]   Read More
Date: September 8, 2023

Challenges of Residential Real Estate

Greetings from 36,000 feet as I make a quick trip to Florida to visit clients and a few new prospective clients. As I sit here my thinking on the markets is not any different from what I have been writing about so I decided to pivot to a totally different topic, interest rates. I am always interested in your feedback, positive or negative, so feel free to share. The worst kept secret of all-time is that interest rates have soared […]   Read More
Date: September 6, 2023

The Spookiness of September Arrives

I keep chatting with folks who bemoan the end of summer because kids are back to school or they work in education. I had news for them. Summer ain’t over. Just like Punxsutawney Phil the groundhog, I see another 6 weeks of summer or pretty close. While ski season is less than 100 days away, I have no plans on mentally preparing just yet. August ended with a little whimper. Stocks sold off into the close while still in a […]   Read More
Date: September 1, 2023

Nice Bounce But Not Convincing

Long-term bond yields have come down over the past two weeks. Ya know what that leads to in this climate? Stocks have bounced nicely over the past week although I sense that yesterday was the day of recognition, the day when people realized there has been a little rally. Usually, we see some weakness a day or two later. At this point the S&P 500 has regained a little more than half of what it lost. If my thesis regarding […]   Read More
Date: August 30, 2023

BUT BUT BUT Nvidia Had a Blowout Quarter

When I got back from the Midwest on Wednesday night my middle son immediately wanted to discuss Nvdia’s absolute blowout earnings report. Before you start thinking that he’s another example of insanely bullish sentiment on the stock and AI in general, he has been all over AI and the semis for a number of years. He just doesn’t understand the ebb of flow of stock price movement. I told him that given the strong run up in the stock and […]   Read More
Date: August 28, 2023

Long Lives & Tech Leaps: The Role of Generational Wealth Today

We continue to see the promising potential for extended life spans in an age of rapidly advancing technology and medicine. If you are 20, you have a 50% chance of living to be 100 or more. If you are already 60, you have a 50% chance of living to be 90 or more. Plus, there are emerging technologies that could extend lifespans even longer.    While this is a somewhat futuristic perspective, we should ask ourselves: Are we prepared for our […]   Read More
Date: August 28, 2023

It’s P Day

A year ago at this time, Fed Chair Jay Powell gave a very short and direct speech at Jackson Hole. Most people were surprised at how short his comments were, but no one misunderstood his powerful message which he followed through on ever since. I do not expect Powell’s speech to be as short as 2022  nor as direct and sharp. I expect him to continue to be mildly hawkish and report that the Fed’s job is almost but not […]   Read More
Date: August 25, 2023

The Ultimate Guide to Understanding Your Social Security Benefits

Understanding how to manage your Social Security benefits is crucial to your overall retirement planning success as you approach retirement. As the owner of a Registered Investment Advisory firm in Woodbridge, CT, and a fiduciary financial advisor, I get to help individuals prepare for a successful retirement by answering questions such as: When should I start taking Social Security benefits? Can I still work while collecting Social Security? Will my Social Security benefits be taxed? How do withdrawals from retirement […]   Read More
Date: August 23, 2023

Reversals Abound – All Eyes on Nvidia

Friday’s reversal from early losses looks interesting on a chart for sure as you can see below in the S&P 500, but Tuesday also showed a less impressive reversal. This time it was to the downside. While I expected more from the bulls after Friday, perhaps I am being a bit too impatient. We will have to see. In what has become the most anticipated earnings report in a long time, Nvidia reports after the close today. The chart is […]   Read More
Date: August 23, 2023

State of the Pullback – Where It Ends, When and What to Buy

A new video has been posted! State of the Pullback – Where It Ends, When and What to Buy On Friday we sold RSYYX and levered S&P 500.   Read More
Date: August 20, 2023