Sell Rosh Hashanah Buy Yom Kippur – Bears in Charge

There has been a trend in place for many, many decades that says to sell heading into the Jewish High Holy Days and buy coming out of them. Friday was the day to sell and next Monday’s close is the day buy. The theory says that Jewish investors would sell their material possessions during the most sacred period of their year to reflect on the year that was and atone for their sins as the period ends on Yom Kippur. […]   Read More
Date: September 21, 2020

Market Bottom Still Ahead

This is just a quick update as the market is about to open. My thoughts remain the same and clear. The bottom is not in just yet. I remain concerned in the short-term. At a minimum I want to see the recent lows breached. If one index bucks the trend, that’s the index I will focus on for the next rally. Since mid-July I have written about the frothiness, the giddyness and the greed in the Fab Five Plus NASDAQ […]   Read More
Date: September 18, 2020

Fed Day – Will Bears Join the Party?

Today is yet another conclusion of the Fed’s two-day meeting where nothing major is being anticipated. Sure, it’s the first meeting since Jackson Hole where Powell offered a change to the Fed’s 2% ceiling on inflation, but I only expect additional details that do not move the markets nor the economy. The Fed has done a lot, extraordinary measures. And they created the longest runway in history before rates will be hiked again. But remember, meteorologists have better track records […]   Read More
Date: September 16, 2020

Bulls Come Back Hungry While A Popular Analog Fails

I received a number of emails and calls that my tone has become negative, too negative by some estimations. That’s fine. I am usually accused of being too positive or permanently bullish. I just call them like I see them and try not to stay wrong for too long. While the bears won last week’s battle, the bulls look like they want to bounce back hard as the new week begins. Certainly, the bulls are due for at least a […]   Read More
Date: September 14, 2020

How to Retire Without Your Spouse: Investment Strategies for the Divorced or Widowed

Divorce has become increasingly common in the United States over the past few decades, and roughly 25 percent of people 65 or older are widowed. Despite this, however, approximately two-thirds of married couples don’t have a financial plan set up in the case of divorce or widowhood. What happens if you do become divorced or widowed either when retirement is imminent or once you’re retired? Are there investment strategies that can help in either scenario? In our more than 30 […]   Read More
Date: September 14, 2020

Remembering 9-11 – NEVER FORGET

September 11th seems to sneak up on me each year. This year was worse as the country is still dealing with the Corona pandemic and the overall heightened state of affairs. With kids going back to school, Labor Day and the start of the NFL season, it feels like I wake up and realize 9-11 is either the next day or very close by. I wasn’t around when Pearl Harbor was bombed but I know everyone from that generation remembers […]   Read More
Date: September 11, 2020

Bottom Still Ahead of Us

Wednesday definitely saw the anticipated snapback I mentioned the other day, however, the bulls limped into the close. I did not want to see that. Stocks remain in a fragile state and that is unlikely to end here. I still believe the major indices will see lower prices than they saw so far this week. In other words, the bottom should not be in just yet. When do I think stocks WILL find the low? I wish I had strong […]   Read More
Date: September 10, 2020

Sell the Rally – Bottom Not In

Stocks got hit with the ugly stick again on Tuesday. If you are keeping score at home, the NASDAQ 100 fell 11% in just three days. No one should be surprised this happened as I have been discussing it since mid-July. Sentiment got giddy and greedy, just like it was in February. Greed is almost always punished swiftly and sharply. Everyone’s favorite stock split plays, Tesla and Apple, plummeted 35% and 20% respectively. Zoom got hit for 27%. These are […]   Read More
Date: September 9, 2020

Bears Not Ceding After Friday’s Reversal

After Thursday’s major rout in the stock market, especially in the much ballyhooed mega tech sector, investors found out super quickly that their love affair with the Fab Five Plus is now a two-way street. Yes, indeed folks, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, etc. can do down even faster than they rallied. While most investors did not enjoy that behavior, it is a welcomed return to more normal activity. It’s also something I warned about last month when I wrote about selling […]   Read More
Date: September 8, 2020

September Not as Bad Beneath the Surface – Ugly Stick Out in Full Force on Thursday

As the calendar has turned to September, let’s not forget all of the pundits who incorrectly warned about August being such a tough month. While there is nothing wrong with being wrong (I do it every day), there is a lot wrong when you are lazy and do not do your homework. Those who painted August with a broad brush just recited some stat they saw on Twitter. Instead, they should have been reading this blog and learning about the […]   Read More
Date: September 4, 2020

Might the Bears Growl a Little?

It’s strange waking up to see the NASDAQ 100 futures down 100+ points. I quipped on Twitter the other day that the new norm was seeing them up 100+ every morning. Let’s keep this all in context. The index is up 4% over the past 5 days and 14% over the past month. It’s up 40% over the past 6 months. It’s been one helluva run! The Fab Five Plus stocks which make up a good portion of the index […]   Read More
Date: September 3, 2020

Bulls Refuse to Give Up Ground

As you know, I have written many pieces lately about my concerns around the NASDAQ 100 and Fab Five plus a few stocks. Between “everyone” loving those few stocks and the indices hitting new highs with more stocks declining than advancing and overall sentiment on the giddy side, there has been no shortage of cracks in the market’s foundation. Yet what has happened? The bulls have run right over the bears each and every time. The NASDAQ hasn’t had even […]   Read More
Date: August 31, 2020

2009 Argues for Much Higher NASDAQ 100

As I tweeted the other day, the powers that be at Dow Jones have completely turned the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average into a manipulated farce. They threw out three low priced stocks and added three high priced stocks. I speculate that this was all about Apple’s 4:1 stock split. Remember that the Dow is a price weighted index. That means that every 1 point move in a Dow stock now equals roughly 7 Dow points. When Apple was $500, […]   Read More
Date: August 26, 2020

Everything is Hunky Dory – Apple a Selling Opp

Market action is definitely feeling like 1999/early 2000 when the hot NASDAQ stocks were melting higher right out of the gate every morning. More importantly, there were so many days with horrid market internals and prices just kept going higher. Last Friday may have been the most egregious since the bull market began in March. On the NYSE there was almost two stocks declining for every one stock rallying. That behavior usually occurs on a one percent down day. Instead, […]   Read More
Date: August 24, 2020

Price Action Like the Dotcom Era

A quick update as we have seen so much more of the same this week, but even more exaggerated. The NASDAQ 100 and the Fab Five plus Nvidia have powered ahead without taking the vast majority of stocks with them. The price action looks like late 1999 and early 2000 with the index scoring new high after new high with more stocks down than up and the amount of shares trading in stocks going down swamping those in stocks going […]   Read More
Date: August 21, 2020

Thank You Warren Buffett

It’s hard to argue that the dog days of summer are here. Like so many other expressions (sick as a dog), I had no idea where they came from until Google and Wikipedia were invented. Now I feel so informed. The major stock market indices have really gone to sleep over the past week. It’s been so quiet. Thankfully, Warren Buffett provided a little excitement after the close on Friday when he disclosed a purchase in Barrick Gold, an industry […]   Read More
Date: August 17, 2020

Common Questions About a SEP IRA

Your standard IRAs and 401(k)s hog a lot of the attention when it comes to defined contribution retirement plans. While these can be terrific vehicles for creating a long-term nest egg, we don’t want to discount another effective option, the SEP IRA. At Heritage Capital, we’re often asked about the SEP IRA, which can be a low-cost alternative to other employee retirement plans. Can I convert a SEP IRA to a Roth IRA? Can I roll a SEP IRA into […]   Read More
Date: August 17, 2020

More Warning Signs – More the Bulls Just Run Over Them

I use the high yield bond market in a number of ways at the firm. It’s an asset class that’s used in five of our models as well as a vital canary in the coal mine. This week, Ball Corp., issued a 10 year high yield bond with a coupon (yield) of just 2.875%. That’s under 3% for a junk bond and bordering on insane! If you want to gauge the appetite for risk and yield, look no further. Now, […]   Read More
Date: August 14, 2020

Is Big Tech Cooked? Nifty Fifty May Guide Fab Five

It’s certainly no secret that I have been negative on big tech and concerned that the epic run relative to the rest of the stock market exceeded even the Dotcom Bubble levels. This has been the case for the past month. The only thing that has changed lately is that the broader stock market, which peaked on June 8th, has stepped up to lead. That was one of the outcomes I have mentioned. Dow Industrials, S&P 400, Russell 2000, banks, […]   Read More
Date: August 12, 2020

***End of Q2 Client Update***

Many people like to read my very brief quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to delete now. First off, I hope you are continuing to stay healthy and sane. I am going to do something different to open this report. Why not? It’s 2020 after all. I want to answer the single most asked question by an exponential factor from clients, prospects and the media. Why have […]   Read More
Date: August 10, 2020