Behavior Befitting The Dotcom Bubble – Sell The Debt Ceiling News
The stock market continues to exhibit behavior that is really enjoyable if you are in the right indices, sectors and stocks, but not so much fun for the masses who are not. Specifically, the NASDAQ 100, semis, software and other technology at the expense of almost everything else. On the smallest level, it reminds me of the Dotcom Bubble. Yes, that Dotcom Bubble where it didn’t exactly end so well. Astute observers may also recall the inverted yield curve from […]
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Date: May 30, 2023
Stocks Pull Back on Schedule
The media is all over the stock market decline that has been going on for all of two days. Two days after a super nice rally off of the March lows. And the decline began almost perfectly on schedule as the leading NASDAQ 100 exceeded the key high from last August and the S&P 500 breached its 2023 high. See the charts below. Many or most times when prices revisit a previous peak or trough, they back off before going […]
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Date: May 24, 2023
Will the Economy Always Be Like This?
Without an adequate understanding of where their financial security stands in times like these, even high-net-worth investors sometimes feel as though stability is out of reach. However, with a firm grasp of economic trends and practices—and the insight for making informed investment decisions when times are tough—there is hope for a prosperous future. The important thing now is to remember that we aren’t in a recession, not yet. It looks increasingly likely for the fourth quarter of the year or […]
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Date: May 22, 2023
Still Talking Debt Ceiling But PGA Was The Story
With an upward bias, markets continue to be quiet as the debt ceiling gets closer and closer to being hit. The NASDAQ 100 remains the leading index followed by the S&P 500. The Dow Industrials are in no man’s land with the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 being the caboose. Nothing has changed. The market is being led by a handful of stocks that are being powered by the AI craze. Sooner or later there will be a swift pullback […]
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Date: May 22, 2023
Will Pundits Finally Turn Bullish?
I am looking forward to seeing many of you tonight at the next Heritage Capital virtual event as we learn a delicious new dessert and bake it on our kitchens. Of course with Friday being here, adult libations are welcome and encouraged. We are working on the in person client event for late summer. Stand by. Markets are getting much more interesting. I have been pretty much pounding the table positive since September. It hasn’t always been easy, but that […]
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Date: May 19, 2023
Lots of Creeping Going On
Markets sniffed a little weakness into the close on Tuesday. That’s about all I can say. It was another dull, have/have not, kind of day. The NASDAQ 100 has crept higher. The S&P 500 has crept sideways. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 have crept lower. Tech sectors are doing well. Banks are groping for a bottom. Discretionary is percolating for a move higher. Most other sectors and a tad weak. Everything is incremental. It seems like most people are […]
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Date: May 17, 2023
Standoff at The O.K. Corral
Markets remain quiet. Early weakness seems to be find buyers. Early strength is not building on itself. We have a standoff at O.K. Corral. Last week I shared the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. The latter being the market leader with the former getting to the top end of its range. To be fair and balanced, below is the laggard which is the Russell 2000 Index of small caps. It looks nothing like the leading indices. The 1700 area has […]
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Date: May 15, 2023
The Masses Freaking Out Over the “Narrow” Market
It’s always good to be back home. While I really like the Valley of the Sun and the constant sunshine without humidity, there’s nothing quite like spring in New England. The annual Uncommon Knowledge conference of my trade association was once again an amazing and rewarding experience. The agenda was chock full of incredible speakers and I learned so much that I can’t wait to implement. The networking with fellow advisors was its usual enormous benefit along with meeting many […]
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Date: May 12, 2023
Pause to Refresh But Hanging In as Media Discovers Russell Problem
Having survived the Fed, Apple and the jobs report, the markets scored a big win for the bulls on Friday. All of the concerns I had were almost all gone based on Friday’s action, but they do remain in place. Friday was one of those “rising tides lifts all ships” kind of day. The despair from the Fed was gone because Apple had good earnings and the February and March strong jobs reports were revised lower, something I started to […]
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Date: May 9, 2023
Getting Defensive Against a Recession
Affluence can make it easy to believe that you are immune to economic downturns. After all, it typically involves having substantial assets, investments, and resources at your disposal. History has shown us time and again, however, that even the wealthiest individuals can be impacted by financial crises. That is why it’s essential to prepare for a 2023 recession: You need a solid plan in place to protect your savings and assets. In the sections below, I discuss the unique challenges […]
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Date: May 8, 2023
***Q1 Client Update***
What a difference the turning of the calendar makes. Stocks and bonds both fell moderately in December to end the single worst year in diversified investing of the modern era. Coming into 2023, my thesis was that the bear market in stocks and bonds had ended in October 2022 and that 2023 was going to be the front-loaded year of the bull. It only took the bulls a few days to get their legs underneath before they exerted their pressure […]
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Date: May 8, 2023
Apple & Jobs to The Rescue
The stock market has now survived the Fed meeting, Apple’s earnings and the April jobs report. I think there is one other item, but I can’t recall. The stock market was lower into and after the Fed as Jay Powell remained hawkish, but to a lesser degree. After Thursday’s close, Apple beats expectations and the bump carried over to the pre-market this morning. While the economy created more jobs than expected in April which feeds fuel to the Fed’s fire, […]
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Date: May 5, 2023
The Fed is Clueless If They Raise Rates Again Today
Here we go. Another one of those “most important Fed meetings ever” nonsense from the media. “SPECIAL Coverage”. Oh boy. I couldn’t sleep with all that anticipation. Those of you who know me know my usual sarcasm. Before I continue, let me spell out the market model for today. Stocks trade between plus and minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a bigger move happens. That’s usually to the upside, but Chair Jay Powell’s tenure has changed that a bit. With […]
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Date: May 3, 2023
First Republic Goes Bye Bye
It was only a matter of time. I cannot believe everyone did not see it coming, but some held out hope. And remember, hope is not an investment strategy. FRC was taken over by the FDIC and sold to JP Morgan is a pre-packaged deal. And what a deal it was for JPM. Congrats to Jamie Dimon for yet another fire sale steal. And yet another stock that Jim Cramer liked as recently as March. The third bank failure in […]
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Date: May 1, 2023
Schizophrenic
The markets have been up and they have been down this week, looking a bit schizophrenic. I did not like what I saw on the way down on Tuesday and Wednesday and I wasn’t overjoyed about the huge rally on Thursday. And that is also represented in the amount of movement in our portfolios. Regardless of how this resolves, higher or lower, I do not want to get caught sleeping at the wheel. Between Google, Microsoft and Meta (the old […]
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Date: April 28, 2023
Quick & Ugly
On Monday I wrote that this “period of no volatility should end right about now.” Well, I didn’t think it would literally be that very moment nor to the degree that stocks fell on Tuesday. The decline on Tuesday was quick, ugly and relentless. Gold offered a little haven but bonds were really the only place to hide. If you are looking to assign blame I would look at the banks and more specifically to First Republic which has been […]
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Date: April 26, 2023
Recession Preparation for High-Net-Worth Individuals
The world’s economies, like our own, are never static. They’re always in motion, like tides in the various oceans. This is why, although storms such as inflation and stock market instability aren’t frequent, they’re not unheard of, either. Generally speaking, they blow in, and then, eventually, they depart. Historically, severe storms like recessions have been much rarer, but unfortunately, they can also last even longer. That is why it is crucial to keep your portfolio prepared for possible economic downturns […]
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Date: April 24, 2023
Huge 10 Days Coming for Earnings
This is a huge week for Q1 earnings with many high profile technology names like Google and Microsoft reporting. Apple is not until May 4th. When the big names report there are usually outsized moves in those stocks like we saw in Tesla last week. It matters because the mega cap stocks have very large weightings in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. So while the vast majority of stocks could do one thing, a big move by Google and/or […]
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Date: April 24, 2023
Like Watching Paint Dry
The markets haven’t been all that exciting this week. Choose your analogy. Watching paint dry. Watching grass grow. I chose the former since I am in full grass planting mode and it better grow quickly next week after the sun, rain and warmth coming. Below is an index I don’t often show, but one that the masses follow religiously. It’s the VIX index which is one measure of volatility based on the options market. Typically, when stocks fall the VIX […]
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Date: April 21, 2023
Tax Day Trend & Two Sectors
Adios tax day 2023! It was good to se you go. Congrats to all of my CPA readers who braved another season and survived. I feel like there was more work done this year than in the recent past with more preliminary 1099s than ever before. Twitter was abuzz about paying taxes. 10% of taxpayers pay 80% of taxes which makes sense in a progressive tax system. Liz Warren claimed that Americans are paying so much in taxes simply because […]
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Date: April 19, 2023
