Menu

Insights

And More Warning Signs For Stocks

Today is one of the enormous quarterly derivative expiration days where markets tend to see huge volume with a few oddities during the afternoon. I don’t see much else and I will touch on Thursday’s dramatic downside reversal on Monday. Following up from yesterday’s somewhat negative bent on the stock market, I want to share three other charts which adds fuel to the fire. Below shows the S&P 500 on top with a chart of the 52-week highs below. You […]   Read More
Date: June 21, 2024

Warning Signs Creeping Into The Stock Market

This week I saw that Goldman Sachs, Evercore ISI and Citi all raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 which now sits just under 5500. For the record, their previous targets were 5100, 4750 and 5100. As with 2023, these firms have been woefully wrong. But they are really good at chasing the market higher and then claiming they got it right when the bell rings. All this got me thinking that when the masses start chasing, should we […]   Read More
Date: June 20, 2024

Is Your 2024 Investment Strategy Still Aligned With Your Goals?

Today’s virtual world moves quickly, so staying ahead of market trends is crucial. So far, in 2024, we’ve experienced persistent inflation and continued interest rate fluctuations. And, the biggest uncertainty is a presidential election that will reshape the entire tax landscape in 2025.  Based on recent market volatility, you may ask yourself if your investment strategy is still aligned with your goals, especially if you will retire in the next few years. As retirement planning specialists in New Haven, we […]   Read More
Date: June 17, 2024

Looking at Yields Again

Between the cooler inflation numbers and the FOMC meeting this week, yields on bonds have come down in a rather large way. As you know, the 10-Year yield in the long-term benchmark and most heavily traded. Let’s look at the 10-Year using two different time frames. Below are treasury yields over the past year. 5% was the high profile peak last October with 3.75% being the low in December. I had thought yields would have visited 4.8% before they saw […]   Read More
Date: June 16, 2024

***SPECIAL Fed Update – Cost of Living Index at All-Time High – Dow to 50,000***

Today is FOMC statement day. The model for the S&P 500 is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then volatility with a rally. There are two problems with the model today. First, stocks have rallied smartly into the meeting which pulled forward the anticipated strength. Second, this morning’s CPI release came a tad cooler than expected although the cost of living index scored yet another all-time high. Pre-market futures looks higher by more than 1%. The model says to […]   Read More
Date: June 12, 2024

Comparing Nvidia to Dotcom Bubble, Election Impact & Reading The Fed

Comparing Nvidia to Dotcom Bubble, Election Impact & Reading The Fed On Friday we bought levered S&P 500. We sold EMB.   Read More
Date: June 10, 2024

Analogs To The Dotcom Bubble

This is going to be a quick blog as I am traveling. I have seen some social media posts and heard some chatter from folks comparing today’s Nvidia-led market to that of the Dotcom Bubble. The most recent Chicken Little chart is below which shows the vast majority of stocks underperforming the S&P 500 index, similar to 1998-1999. Keep in mind during the Dotcom Bubble, this condition last more than two years. Additionally, market participation is worlds better today than […]   Read More
Date: June 6, 2024

Now It’s a Slowdown

Inflation, inflation, inflation. Jobs, jobs, jobs. That’s all we’ve heard all year. Yet, this week the narrative seems to have changed to a slowdown. Is it the elusive “soft landing” so many positioned for in 2024? Is it recession? For now, it seems like just chatter and drivel without hard data backing it up. Let’s take a look at the 10-Year below to see what the market is fussing about on the far right of the chart. Yields have come […]   Read More
Date: June 5, 2024

May Certainly Ended With a Bang

I had my 40th high school reunion on Saturday. Since reunions started at the 5 year mark, the only one I have missed was my 35th when I had that tiny little mishap with that 50 foot silver maple and those 35 broken bones. It was so much fun to see old classmates and friends whom I hasn’t seen in years. Thankfully, Facebook lets many of us stay in touch. Very uncharacteristically for me, in my excitement to catch and […]   Read More
Date: June 3, 2024

How Quickly Things Change

On May 22nd after the close, Nvidia reported blow out earnings and announced a 10:1 stock split. I said the stock should exceed $1000 in after hours trading and it did, but that’s not relevant. What was super important about the next day was that while Nvidia surged higher, the rest of the market gapped and crapped, meaning the stock market shot up at the open and then sold off the rest of the day to close at or near […]   Read More
Date: May 30, 2024

Transports Lagging Badly Since 2021 – But Does It Matter?

Friday saw a new closing high in the NASDAQ 100 which was unaccompanied by any of the other major indices. That index is below. It really doesn’t see clear skies until it closes above last Thursday’s nasty reversal day. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000, both below, obviously look weaker, but the former can be repaired rather easily. The latter not so much. What I have really wanted to discuss was the Dow Transportation Index which has been super weak […]   Read More
Date: May 28, 2024

Not Even Nvidia Could Prevent The Plunge – Time To Prune

As highly anticipated as Nvidia’s earnings were and the huge reaction, Thursday was an even more consequential day in the stock market. First, as I wrote about on Wednesday, I fully expected Nvidia to blow out earnings and the stock to soar above $1000 in the after hours trading on Wednesday. I don’t think there was any great stretch there or new revelation. The biggest test would be after the open to see what the stock did. For a while […]   Read More
Date: May 24, 2024

Nvidia – Poised To Hit $1000+ After Hours

Given that Nvidia has become THE most important stock on earth, I expect the media to be completely obsessed about it all day as the company reports Q1 earnings after the closing bell today. It is now one of the most over-owned stocks on earth, present company included, with very few detractors except for those based on valuation and price. I have written about pruning the stock a number of times, most recently in March, as it looked like a […]   Read More
Date: May 22, 2024

Avoid These 4 Retirement Planning Mistakes When Funding College

Paying for your child’s (or grandchildren’s) college expenses can significantly strain any family’s finances. With rising tuition fees and escalating living expenses, the financial burden of college education is becoming increasingly challenging to manage. As a high-net-worth individual, the dilemma is balancing the desire to provide a quality education for your family along with having a comfortable retirement. Failing to strike the proper balance can easily lead to higher debt, reduced savings, postponed retirement, or a dramatic reduction in your […]   Read More
Date: May 20, 2024

Low Volatility Is Bullish – Ignore The Lazy

This past Friday was your typical options expiration which used to be a somewhat important affair. Over the years, it has almost become a non-event with all the more frequent options being traded weekly and now daily. A tried and true trend about strength into last Friday and weakness the following week kicks off today. I don’t think it’s anything big to the downside, just maybe a modest pullback. As I thought about that old study I just mentioned, I […]   Read More
Date: May 20, 2024

Dotcom Bubble Again?

On Wednesday I wrote about the meme stocks being back in Vogue with epic volume. I know. I know. Why should we care about a few stocks that trade like Dotcom stocks from yesteryear? In a vacuum it doesn’t really matter. However, we don’t live nor invest in a vacuum. Meme stocks like Gamestop, AMC and Blackberry are indicators of overall market sentiment. All three companies have poor fundamentals which is why many professional investors have positioned against those stocks, […]   Read More
Date: May 17, 2024

All-Time Highs Are Here Again – Meme Shorts Get Punched

It seems like a lot has happened this week and it’s only Wednesday morning. On Tuesday and Wednesday we got inflation reports from the producers as well as the consumers. One was warmer than expected while the other was a touch cooler. Still, although April looked a tiny bit better, year over year inflation remained well above 3% and nowhere near the Fed’s 2% target. Recall that I have been saying that 3% is the new 2% and until we […]   Read More
Date: May 15, 2024

Stocks Overbought

I hope everyone had a nice Mother’s Day. With the kids home, my mom back from the Sunshine State and my in-laws just down the street, it was great to have everyone over and also celebrate my brother’s double nickel (55) birthday a few days early. I had my first hands on experience with AI as I listed a brand new Taylor Made driver for sale on eBay. After I entered all the specs, it asked me if I wanted […]   Read More
Date: May 13, 2024

Tactical Social Security Planning for High Net-Worth Individuals

As you approach retirement, understanding the impact of Social Security becomes a significant piece of an already complex puzzle known as retirement planning. For affluent individuals, the challenge isn’t just about choosing when to start benefits but also knowing how those choices impact your taxes and retirement income.  You might be wondering:  When is the best time to claim benefits?  How will this affect my taxable income?  Should my spouse and I coordinate our claims?  Are there tactical planning tips […]   Read More
Date: May 13, 2024

The Youts! What’s a Yout? – AI & The Utes

The bulls have had quite a run, haven’t they? My thesis for a Q1 peak came to fruition. My thesis for a Q2 low came to fruition. I think my thesis for all-time highs in Q3 will come to fruition, but that may be happily earlier than I expected as the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are just one big day away. Longtime readers know I hate to follow the masses as they are usually but not always […]   Read More
Date: May 10, 2024