SpaceX IPO – NO THANKS
There are “hot” IPOs and there are “HOT” IPOs. The former are hugely sponsored institutional offerings which are typically not recognizable names to retail investors. The latter only come along a few times per decade. They are typically widely and well known companies to consumers and retail investors. Can you guess which ones I like from the get go? The answer is NONE. My general rule is to not buy any IPO on day one of trading. It’s a sucker’s […]
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Date: June 12, 2026
Wild Action, Healthy Pullback, SpaceX Coming & Opps To Prune
What a strange day it was on Tuesday. Wild intra-day price moves. Big decline early on, followed by a big rally and then settling back. Lots of unconfirmed speculation that investors have been selling AI, crypto and gold to buy SpaceX. Not sure I buy that.The most high profile IPO in years comes this Friday. I hope to have a piece out on that this week if I can squeeze it in. My youngest graduates high school tomorrow and there […]
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Date: June 10, 2026
Was Friday’s Rout The Beginning Of The Big One?
Friday was a rout. The majority of stocks were hit very hard. The ones that went up the most, went down the most. Semis gave back almost two weeks worth of return in one day. As is usually the case with parabolic moves, late comers were punished. Friday was not one of those “sell everything” days. Defensive sectors were up on the day. Staples, utilities, REITs and healthcare all saw gains. Friday’s employment news was a blockbuster. The dormant jobs […]
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Date: June 8, 2026
Sorry Naysayers – Boom In New Jobs Created
The big monthly employment report was just released and lo and behold, the U.S. economy continues to outperform. It continues to exceed expectations. The economic “experts” continue to be dead wrong. Late last year, I shared that I thought there would be a trough in the jobs market. I wasn’t ready to jump on the bandwagon that AI was stealing everyone’s job. I thought AI could be a culprit for creating less jobs or it could be closing the southern […]
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Date: June 6, 2026
Jinxed – Software Partying – 1999
I came into work today and Optimum’s phone, cable and internet were all down in the office. While most people complain about how bad Optimum is, we have been down less than one day per year. I figured it was just a blip and ran over to Starbucks where there was not a single person in the drive through line, something that never, ever happens in Woodbridge. I mentioned it to the woman who took care of me and she […]
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Date: June 3, 2026
Bears Continue To Be Woefully Wrong
June is here and I hope the weather has finally turned in CT. Saturday was one of the windiest non-storm days I can ever recall. It was crazy and not exactly a fun golf day. It didn’t help that I stunk without the wind. But a quiet afternoon in the office was beneficial. Many of the comments I receive via email and social media are from the bears. They LOVE to do the “BUT BUT BUT”. For years I have […]
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Date: June 1, 2026
Opportunities In Oil, Gold & The Dow
It was good seeing so many of our Boston area clients this week. Sadly, the world lost the gentleman who introduced me to all of them, David Fieldhouse, as he passed away while I was up there. I met David in the 1990s when he was an independent financial advisor who was looking to have his clients’ assets managed. We became instant friends and had countless discussions about world history. I broke bread with his wife, his kids and even […]
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Date: May 29, 2026
Pullback Ovah But Bitcoin Has Issues
Quick update before I head up to the Boston area to visit clients. Hoping for some chowdah and a laubstah roll. The pullback I recently wrote about ended quickly as all do in super strong markets. New highs followed suit even faster than I thought. The winners keep winning and dragging most things up with them. Powerful broadening is not taking place, a topic for a different day. There is certainly a chance that the mega cap technology sector sees […]
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Date: May 27, 2026
Concerns
After a quick and action packed trip to Florida, it is always great to be home. Although I travel a fair amount, I just love my own bed. The other day I wrote about a possible pullback. Until new highs are reached, that’s what the current structure is. However, in the strongest of bull moves, all we really see are 1-3 day bouts of minor weakness that result in 1-3% down. For all of you who chirp me about being […]
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Date: May 22, 2026
Pullback Started
Greetings from the Sunshine State where it is hot, humid and windy. I had planned on doing an update yesterday morning, but the geniuses at Tweed airport decided that folks with TSA Pre and Global Entry no longer get their own line. Instead, they created one single line for all those dropping off luggage, TSA and regular security. That is called a cluster of insanity. When I questioned why they did this over the past two weeks, I was told […]
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Date: May 19, 2026
Why “Staying Wrong” Is the Greatest Risk to Your Retirement (Lessons From an Active Manager)
Being wrong is part of investing. Staying wrong is a decision. Unpredictable events can happen that affect a thesis, or economic data can change suddenly. Even the most seasoned professionals make data-driven calls that don’t work out. What separates disciplined portfolio management from destructive portfolio management isn’t perfection; it’s the response. Many investors reconsider their advisory relationship after experiencing prolonged unrealized losses that are explained away rather than addressed. That frustration leads to conversations about switching financial advisors. The issue […]
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Date: May 19, 2026
It’s Not A Toommah!
“I told ya so. This is a bubble bursting.” “I knew this would crash.” Those are just two of the idiotic comments I heard this morning as pre-market activity is decidedly negative with the NASDAQ 100 leading the way down at almost 2%. Let’s forget that these same comments have been made for the past month and the stock market did close at yet another all-time high just last night. Remember Arnold Schwarzenegger in Kindergarten Cop when the little kids […]
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Date: May 15, 2026
Stock Market Participation At All-Time Highs – One Area Of Concern
The other day I wrote about the parabolic advance in semiconductors. It’s not over and there should be more new highs coming. However, parabolic rallies almost never end by going sideways or mildly pulling back. They can violently punish the late comers and the greediest. The nonsense about this market rhyming with 1999 remains laughable. I keep hearing from the bears that the rally is narrow and only a few stocks are participating. Let’s turn to our friend the NYSE […]
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Date: May 13, 2026
Is This 1999 All Over Again? Semiconductors Partying Big Time
There has been so much chatter lately that this is a repeat of 1999. It’s not. People are all over Twitter comparing AI to the Dotcom stocks. They’re dead wrong. Other people are forecasting financial Armageddon worse than Dotcom and 2008. That’s laughable. When I push back on the notion that this is 1999 again, people call me a “perma-bull” or tell me that I am not analyzing it correctly. For decades I have said that bubbles are generational. The […]
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Date: May 11, 2026
An Opp For The Bears?
First, the answer is emphatically, NO. This is not 1999. Thursday’s action might give the bears some ammunition, at least for a mild pullback or pause. Let’s look at the S&P 400 below. Similar to what happened in mid-April, there was a rejection in price at new highs. 3750 becomes a loose line in the sand for the bears to defend on the upside. Similarly, the Russell 2000 below also saw price rejection at new highs. Just below 2900 becomes […]
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Date: May 8, 2026
Interest Rates Are Front & Center
After yesterday’s action I would have thought there would be a pause or mild pullback today. Pre-market trading shows a jump up at the open based on yet more strong earnings and oil trading lower. It’s amazing how the negative the narrative continues to be regarding the economy and earnings. I laugh when people say that the economy is really weak but earnings are really good. Just think about that for a minute. We continue to see all-time highs in […]
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Date: May 5, 2026
Beyond the 60/40 Portfolio: Why High-Net-Worth Portfolios Need Active Risk Modeling in 2026
For decades, the static 60/40 portfolio was championed as the definitive solution for a long-lasting retirement. The idea was simple: equities provided growth, and bonds provided ballast when markets declined. However, in today’s environment, that assumption deserves a much closer look. Several cracks have emerged for this traditional portfolio model, including the impact of increased longevity and major market volatility at the very moment you need your capital most. This article from Heritage Capital discusses why a rigid 60/40 allocation […]
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Date: May 5, 2026
***Q1 Client Report***
One thing is for sure; the past 15 months have not been quiet. On an apolitical basis, Donald Trump does not like when things are status quo. He doesn’t like copacetic. He seems to create or encourage chaos, which is a well-known style of management, like it or not. I would almost go as far as to say that President Trump is most successful when he is successful using chaos theory. Whether you love or hate the president, my comments […]
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Date: May 4, 2026
Very Strong Seasonal Stats To Year-End
May starts today and seasonal trends show a strongly bullish day setting up, not in magnitude, but in the odds of an up day. Additionally, when the S&P 500 is up 5%+ in April, the next 8 months are up more than 80% of the time by roughly 3%. And when the S&P 500 is up 10%+ through April, the rest of the year is very strong with the exception of 1987. After the FOMC left interest rates unchanged, very […]
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Date: May 1, 2026
***Fed Meeting Update – Powell’s Last Stand***
Today is Jay Powell’s last FOMC meeting as chair. While I think he will also leave the Fed when Kevin Warsh is confirmed, it is possible that he remains in governorship role, if only as a foil to President Trump. The stock market model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. Jay Powell has had the worst stock market track record of any Fed chair post the 2pm announcement. He has also had the […]
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Date: April 29, 2026
