Heading to the Hamptons – No Recession There

For you golf fans out there, if you didn’t catch Nick Faldo’s retirement from a second successful career, it’s one for the ages. Watch here. And so we start a new week with the dog days of summer still crushing New England and much of the country. I cannot get over how long we have had hazy, hot and humid days in CT. This isn’t the southeast where people are used to it. And if you’re keeping score at home, […]   Read More
Date: August 8, 2022

***Q2 Client Update***

Many people like to read my very “brief” quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. Let’s dive right in, be upfront and recognize that Q2 was a very challenging quarter in almost every asset class and across the spectrum with poor performance at a level not seen since Q1 2020. In fact, although the stock market did not […]   Read More
Date: August 5, 2022

High Yield Bonds Join The Party – FINALLY!

Until the last few weeks, I had been complaining about high yield’s lack of enthusiasm off the June lows. The sector had looked like death. I am sure part my bemoaning was that the fact that we have been legging into the high yield sector since June to get fully fully invested. Below I show you two different ways to view junk bonds, through an ETF and a mutual fund, let me also say that because these bonds pay high […]   Read More
Date: August 3, 2022

Dog Days of August

I can’t believe it’s already August. I am not ready for the countdown to end summer, even though ski season may only be 100 or so days away. I like wearing shorts, tee shirts and flip flops. Where has the year gone? Can we slow down a bit? July’s market action was a whole lot more fun for the bulls than June, May, April, etc. The S&P 500 was up more than 9% and the bond market rallied by 2.5%. […]   Read More
Date: August 1, 2022

Recession?!?! – NOT

Let’s start with my conclusion. The U.S. is not in recession as I think I have stated every month this year. Yes, I know the government just released its first look at Q2 GDP and it was negative for the second straight quarter. And if you consult Webster’s dictionary, that’s the definition of recession. But since when is Webster the end all be all arbiter? Lots of pundits believe the U.S. is already in recession. I have not been among […]   Read More
Date: July 29, 2022

***SPECIAL Fed Update – Pivot on the Way, No Recession Yet***

Let’s start with the market info of the day. It’s Fed announcement day and the market usually trades plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then volatility expands and we get a big move, usually to the upside. With the pre-market strong, much work looks to already be done. Because the last two days were weak that strengthened the trend today to a large degree and on Twitter you saw the additional positions taken. Jay Powell and the rest of […]   Read More
Date: July 27, 2022

How We Helped Janice Create a Successful Retirement Plan

Janice was a new client who came to us to set up a retirement savings financial plan. She was 55 and wanted to retire in 10 years.  Her investments for retirement were primarily in a 401(k) plan through her employer. She owned a lot of company stock. She also had an account at a major brokerage house and invested in an assortment of stocks, mutual funds, and bonds. Janice was unsure how that was working for her.  She was thinking […]   Read More
Date: July 26, 2022

Dizzying Week Ahead

With the biggest earnings week of the season including Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and UPS, the FOMC announcement on Wednesday and first look at Q2 GDP on Thursday, this is going to be a super busy week. Heading into the weekend, S&P 4000 or so looked to be a logical pause point for the stock market as I wrote here. Stocks have had a nice bounce off the June bottom and a breather will not be the worst thing in […]   Read More
Date: July 25, 2022

Bulls Firmly in Control But 4000 Should Start Pause

The stock market is having a good week. The nasty reversal on Monday didn’t even give the bears satisfaction for 24 hours. It turned out to be a trap and stocks immediately soared higher again. Below is an update of the chart I posted last week with price filling in for where I had my light blue lines to generally forecast the next few weeks. S&P 4000 is within reach and that would fill the remaining gap left from the […]   Read More
Date: July 22, 2022

Finally a Surge in Buying Interest

Don’t look now, but the bulls have scored two big up days in the last three days with an intervening reversal on Monday. We are finally seeing a surge in buying interest as the many of the major indices attempt to exceed their late June highs. If successful that would be higher highs and higher lows. If I am wrong and the bear market is about to resume we should see immediate failure by the bulls. The S&P 500 is […]   Read More
Date: July 20, 2022

The News is Awful

The news this week has been putrid, like Tiger Woods’ golf at the British Open. CPI was hot. PPI was hot. Talk has turned to a full 1% rate hike by the Fed on July 27th. Bank earnings hasn’t been very good so far except for Citibank. Yet, as I write this before lunch the S&P 500 is down a little more than 1% this week. The NASDAQ 100 is down even less. With all that bad news, the casual […]   Read More
Date: July 15, 2022

6 Smart Strategies for High Net Worth Retirement Planning

High net worth (HNW) families such as yours face unique challenges, and opportunities, in the years leading up to retirement. You require sophisticated planning that addresses the complexities that inevitably accompany affluence, from tax strategies to estate plans. It’s critical to partner with the right professional financial advisor, someone with the knowledge and experience to customize solutions for your unique circumstances. And a friendly, caring attitude wouldn’t hurt, either. Here are six elements of an overall strategy that map out […]   Read More
Date: July 14, 2022

Feeling HOT, HOT HOT

On Tuesday I saw a tweet quoting someone in the Biden Administration as saying that today’s inflation data had “stale” energy prices in it. To me that meant he had already seen the report and was prepping the markets and people for a hot CPI today. The stock market hung in nicely on Tuesday until the lunchtime lull turned into the afternoon plunge. All in all, it still wasn’t an awful day. The government released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) […]   Read More
Date: July 13, 2022

Staving Off Recession, For Now

On Friday the government released June employment data and revised prior months with real data, not the algo they use in real time. The economy created 372,000 new jobs well beyond expectations of 250,000 new jobs. However, April and May were revised lowed by 74,000. Wages gained 5% year over year. All in all this was another stellar report on the surface. However, markets now seem to be in the good news is bad news regime as a stronger economy […]   Read More
Date: July 11, 2022

Time for a Pause or Mild Pullback?

The stock market has had a nice little rally over the past week. It still needs to clear some upside to see that defined higher highs and higher lows, but let’s not be greedy here. The rally hasn’t exactly been powerful or overwhelmingly strong. So far, it just looks like a bounce from A low but not THE low. These bounces can persist for days, weeks or months depending on how long it takes for investors to believe again. I […]   Read More
Date: July 8, 2022

Taking Stock as Q3 Begins – The Single Most Important Sign

As July, Q3 and 2H 2022 begin the financial markets remain volatile and likely to stay that way throughout Q3. Over the past month or so, I have been encouraged by the behavior in sectors that peaked first and led the decline, namely, software, biotech, innovation and China. Those groups continue to lead the nascent rally. As I keep mentioning, I love bonds, especially on a risk-adjusted basis through year-end. The rally off the low has been strong and certainly […]   Read More
Date: July 6, 2022

2022 a Redux of 2008?

A new video has been posted. Is 2022 a Repeat of 2008?   Read More
Date: July 5, 2022

Overusing “Good Riddance” & Inflation of July 4th Travel

Almost every month in 2022 I have used the words “good riddance” as the new month began. I used it when Q1 ended and now I am saying GOOD RIDDANCE to June, Q2 and 1H 2022. None have been easy. As the calendar turns to July, there are a number of seasonal crosscurrents. During the second year of first term presidents, the stock market remains unappealing during the summer and often sees a major bottom in September or October. The […]   Read More
Date: July 1, 2022

Bears Come Out of Hibernation

After we finally saw a nice week for the bulls last week, the bears decided enough was enough and sold the opening in a big way on Tuesday. I expect chatter to quickly turn to whether a new leg lower for the stock market has begun and how much deeper the bear market can go. The best things you can say about Tuesday are that small and mid cap stocks did not lead the market lower and the NYSE A/D […]   Read More
Date: June 29, 2022

Why “Set It and Forget It” May Be the Wrong Investment Strategy

Please don’t shoot the messenger, but I’m here to tell you that, while setting it and forgetting it (SIFI) can sometimes be a generally helpful strategy, it is not ALWAYS best. In this article, I’ll describe how SIFI works and seven ways it falls short, especially if you manage your portfolio on your own. I’ll finish by showing how a fiduciary advisor can provide the benefits of SIFI without the downsides.   What Is Set It and Forget It Investing? […]   Read More
Date: June 28, 2022