News Get Worse But Reactions Do Not – Oil, Stocks And Profits
News of the negotiations with Iran turning south hit over the weekend. I read way too much nonsense about the coming stock market crash and recession. Remember what I always say? It’s not the new; it’s how markets react to the news. It wasn’t long ago when a spike in oil would cause large moves in other asset prices. That’s because sudden large and unexpected price movements a do not give markets time to adapt and adjust. Once markets pivot […]
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Date: April 13, 2026
Models Negative – Semis & Transports Click ATHs
News of a ceasefire caused the stock market to soar on Wednesday with some follow through on Thursday. That move has the S&P 500 just above the upper end of my bounce range at 6800. Was that it? Another “V” shaped bottom is in and new highs are coming by July 4th as I forecast? Count me as skeptical for now, bu tot willing to die on that hill. First, many of our aggressive models not only went to neutral […]
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Date: April 10, 2026
The “U-Shaped” Jobs Market: What Strong Employment Data Means for Your 2026 Retirement Date
A strong jobs report is typically viewed as good news. Headlines describe “blockbuster” hiring. Markets react, and confidence can rise. But what does a strong labor report actually mean if you’re within a few years of retirement? Employment data can affect interest rates, asset prices, and economic expectations. It doesn’t automatically lower your property taxes, reduce healthcare costs, or shorten your retirement horizon. This Heritage Capital article examines the 2026 U-shaped labor market, its potential impact on your target retirement […]
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Date: April 8, 2026
March Job Growth Soars, But – Stock Market Bounces, But
Greetings from Midway Airport in Chicago where we are connecting from Indy to fly home. It’s a been such a fun almost week of travel although the outcomes were not what UCONN nation had hoped for. We did spend most of our time at one of my favorite resorts in one of my favorite cities, Scottsdale, AZ. The sunsets just never get old. While the markets were closed for Good Friday, the government released the monthly employment report and it […]
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Date: April 7, 2026
THE Bottom? “A” Bottom? Dead Rat Bounce?
Greetings from 38,000 feet as I head to Phoenix to cheer on the UCONN women in the Final Four. These events are always so much fun and you never know when it will be the last one, at least for a while. Well, similar to Q1 2025, the last three months were “interesting” to say the least. This year it was Iran. Last year it was tariffs. Anyone want to guess what next year will bring? A new month and […]
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Date: April 1, 2026
Almost There
Friday was an ugly day for the bulls on top of Thursday’s rout. One or two more days like that should create enough panic to wash out the remaining sellers and give us a low. What we don’t want is an intervening weak rally based on some geopolitical headline. When a decline begins to look like a waterfall like the S&P 500 does below, it’s time to have laser focus. Prune the low conviction holdings. Add to high conviction ones. […]
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Date: March 30, 2026
Are We There Yet?
Thursday was an ugly day in the markets. It mostly matched last Friday. The main conditions have been met for a low as well as hitting my worst case scenario on the downside. Now we wait and wait, patiently for the washout. A number of folks asked if Thursday was it. I doubt it. A few more days like Thursday should do it without intervening rally days. The bulls’ spirit need to be crushed for a durable low. It’s getting […]
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Date: March 27, 2026
Another Step In The Bottoming Process – Buy Gold, Sell Oil
As usual, the market forces are not making it easy. Twice this week the stock market was set up for that whoosh lower to clean up the decline. And I think we need a down 1000+ point day on the Dow Industrials. Twice, there has been tweets and rumors and news about potential peace with Iran. Don’t get me wrong. 100% I want peace on earth. What I don’t want is the market to think it can bottom on peace. […]
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Date: March 25, 2026
Why We Listen to Our Clients More Than the Media: The Human Side of Financial Planning
Financial television talks in averages: inflation is at 2.4%, employment is strong, and markets are resilient. While these numbers are important, they don’t tell the whole story. Prices that rose sharply over the past few years haven’t returned to previous levels. Groceries, insurance, utilities, and property taxes in Connecticut remain high. A lower inflation rate simply means prices are rising more slowly. It doesn’t mean the cost of living has gone down. Media commentary often blends national statistics into a […]
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Date: March 24, 2026
Huge Snapback – Trust But Verify
News this morning from President Trump on the Iran from saw a 180 degree turn in foreign markets and our pre-market trading. Now, the 1% loss looks like a 2% gain. And I am not sure I trust it. Like Ronald Reagan once famously said, “trust but verify”. I would much rather have preferred the big down open that forced investors to sell on the heels of the multi-trillion dollar options expiry on Friday. Then, a big rally could have […]
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Date: March 23, 2026
Trillion Dollar Plus Day – Step 3 In Bottoming Not Here Yet
Happy first day of spring as well as my little guy’s 18th birthday! I guess we have no more “kids”, just “adults” although who am I kidding? Most of our friends would not consider me to be an adult. Today is one of the largest options expirations in history. Trillions of dollars in derivatives are going off the board. While the numbers have become gargantuan, their impact has been mitigated by 0DTE or zero days til expiration options. In other […]
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Date: March 20, 2026
***FOMC Model For The Day – Buy The Open – No Cut – Stocks Bottoming Process***
The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. The model has a higher expectancy of success because of the recent weakness which would make today very actionable for the bulls to buy a down opening. The FOMC concludes their two-day meeting today with a very much expected result of no action. Although they were never really going to cut now anyway with Jay Powell’s term almost over, the recent spike […]
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Date: March 18, 2026
Step 2 In The Bottoming Process
Boy did it look like folks did not want own risk assets heading into the weekend. And that’s the normal behavior during geopolitical events. Friday’s late afternoon swoon accomplished step two of the bottoming process which was breaching the high momentum low from last week and creating some very short-term divergences that can support at least a bounce. Do you see how the S&P 500 in the first chart made a lower low on Friday? In the second chart, the […]
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Date: March 16, 2026
No Rate Cuts – No Change In Bull Market
In the very short-term it looks like the major stock market indices are going to at least revisit this week’s low sooner than later. That scenario leaves open my worst case scenario of the 6500 area in the coming days and weeks. 6500 is not an exact point. It is a general range. Hitting that area would also have me downgrade the upside target for the Q2 peak. This is all part of the bottoming process I wrote about the […]
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Date: March 13, 2026
Volatility Spiked As Bottoming Process Begins – Worst Case Still 4% Lower
When I ended Monday’s missive, I said we would discuss volatility on Wednesday. So I am one day late. The index or VIX is below. At stock market bottoms, the VIX usually soars which it just did. However, it can always soar higher. A VIX above 30 is a definite sign that there is some panic in the markets and it becomes tougher to navigate. A VIX in the low 30s says the market should experience 2% daily moves in […]
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Date: March 12, 2026
Inflation Is Down, but Your Cost of Living Is Still High: Tips for Your Retirement Planning in Connecticut
While 2026 inflation has cooled to roughly 2.4%, the cost to live in Connecticut remains at record levels. Retirees in New Haven and Woodbridge feel the squeeze every month, not because prices are rising rapidly, but because they are already high. This creates a unique challenge. You’re operating in a so-called “Goldilocks” economy where inflation appears stable, job growth is solid, and markets continue to rise. Yet property taxes, insurance premiums, utilities, healthcare, and services remain elevated. This article from […]
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Date: March 10, 2026
Yes & No – All-Time Highs Remain On Tap – Larger Decline Potentially Looms – Oil Peak
The markets are set to open in the direction as we saw last week with stock lower, oil sharply higher, gold and silver lower and interest rates higher. Let’s start with the two questions I received the most last week. The first was if I still thought the stock market was going to new highs in Q2. The answer remains a resounding, yes. At the most recent peak, internal market conditions were solid to strong which means that weakness should […]
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Date: March 9, 2026
Unexpected Job Losses In Feb, Semis Lead, Banks Lag & Volatility Elevated
Lots of info today. First, my quick glance of the February jobs number shows a loss of 92,000 jobs which almost reverses the unexpected surge shown in January. While these numbers are usually volatile, this is outside the box. My sense is that we will find out that weather played a role. Also, the government uses this “birth/death” model to estimate corporations. I suspect something in there may be off for January and February. With such job volatility, the best […]
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Date: March 6, 2026
***Q4 Client Report***
Similar to the third quarter, the fourth quarter of 2025 saw many events in terms of geopolitics, markets and the economy. Returns in the financial markets moderated from their breakneck paces of Q2 and Q3 with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 both up more than 2%. The bond market also gained almost 1%. Gold and silver soared while oil fell again. Bitcoin peaked and began another large plunge. I will say this. Although we have started trading Bitcoin ETFs, […]
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Date: March 5, 2026
Silver & Energy Stocks Don’t Deliver – Use Volatility To Adjust Your Portfolio
While geopolitical headlines dominate, there isn’t likely to be an “all clear” for months. I wonder what the benchmark will be to stop the bombing campaign. How does it the conflict end and what happens with control of Iranian oil? I have no idea other than what I posed the other day; a new cleric takes over and agrees to dismantle their nukes in exchange for the bombing to end. The Iranian people lose big in that scenario. Oil just […]
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Date: March 4, 2026
