White Hot Jobs Market & Yields Go Down

On Friday the government released the employment report for November which showed 263,000 new jobs being created. That was well above the 200,000 estimated. Unemployment remained steady at 3.7%. We also saw wages increase at 5.1% on an annualized basis. While this is great news for Americans and the economy, it is not what Jay Powell and the Fed wanted to see. Recall that the Fed is on an inflation fighting crusade. Let’s remember that Fed action takes 6-9 month […]   Read More
Date: December 5, 2022

More Props For The Bulls

Wednesday was a huge day for the bulls. It started out mildly until Fed Chair Powell spoke with David Wessel from the Brookings Institute. Then the fuse got lit and risk on assets soared. Almost 90% of the day’s volume was in stocks that went up. The Dow Industrials, S&P 500, S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100 all went to new highs for Q4. Only the Russell 2000 lags. Below you can see the percent of stocks in the S&P 500 […]   Read More
Date: December 2, 2022

Slice It How You Want, Yield Curves Point To Recession in 2023

It’s no secret that I have been steadfast this year that the U.S. economy has not been in recession. And yes, I do know that both Q1 and Q2 saw negative GDP growth. It doesn’t matter. That’s not a recession. Sorry. And I am not going to feed into the political nonsense regarding the definition of recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research is the final arbiter of recessions, not politicians nor pundits. Anyway, my economic forecast for 2023 isn’t […]   Read More
Date: November 30, 2022

Seasonal Headwind Today As Black Friday & Cyber Monday Get Weighed

Welcome back to the last week of November. I hope you had a great Thanksgiving! I ate my face off and just finished leftovers this morning for breakfast. I refuse to loosen my belt so it’s going to be an uncomfortable week. My mom and wife went all out with the traditional fare as well as something unusual. Teri makes the single best challah on earth and last week she shaped one into a turkey. Between the Cowboys winning and […]   Read More
Date: November 28, 2022

The Pieces Are Falling Into Place

As I mentioned on Monday this week has a seasonal tailwind, but especially Wednesday and Friday. Then next Monday has a headwind. I found it so interesting that as stocks rallied in broad-based fashion on Tuesday, pundits became so enamored. Since the October 13th bottom, all we have heard was folks selling the bear market rally. Now it seems like pundits pivoted to buying for a year-end rally. I guess after a 12% rally in the S&P 500, the masses […]   Read More
Date: November 23, 2022

Europe & Dow Showing Emerging Index Leadership As Dollar Plummets

Thanksgiving week is here! I love Thanksgiving. I think it’s my favorite holiday. Food, family, football and fun. Markets do too with the week being historically strong. While Monday and Tuesday do not have a tailwind, Wednesday and Friday certainly do. And then one week from today is a seasonally weak day. Since the big bottom in October we know that Europe and NASDAQ 100 rallied the most to the recent highs. S&P 400, emerging markets, Dow Industrials and Russell […]   Read More
Date: November 21, 2022

It’s Tax-Loss Harvest Season

Happy Thanksgiving! I hope your holiday is meaningful, safe and happy. However—with an appreciation for the beloved November holiday—there is another, less celebrated time that we can recognize this year, as well.  It is not just harvest season; it’s tax-loss harvest season. In times when even the affluent can be at risk of losing wealth to inflation, that’s a good thing. This article explains these topics:  Tax-loss harvesting: what is it & how does it work? Even the affluent need […]   Read More
Date: November 21, 2022

Gridlock Is Good

I spent yesterday in NYC for the first time since early June. And I did something I said I would never do again, or at least for 5 years. I rode the subway, multiple times. I was surprised at how empty it was. I was surprised that people take dogs on now which is against the rules. I was shocked at how many just jumped the turnstile in front of MTA agents and not a single person even flinched. Why […]   Read More
Date: November 18, 2022

The Fall of SBF Continues as Markets Yawn

The FTX news and spectacular collapse of the company and crypto poster boy, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), continues. From 10,000 creditors, last I saw it was up t0 1,000,000 creditors. Other crypto firms are being wiped out in the contagion. Thankfully, it seems limited to that sector and is not systemic. SBF is yet another in a long line of supposed transcenders who knew better and ended up in ruin. The Hunt brothers with silver in 1980. Bernie Madoff in 2008. […]   Read More
Date: November 16, 2022

And They Called ME An Idiot

Last week was chock full of news on all fronts. There was something for everyone, including my Cowboys embarrassingly falling apart in the fourth quarter. Inflation, markets, crypto and geopolitics. I intended to cover everything in detail in this video below, but there just wasn’t time although I was able to touch on all topics. And They Called ME An Idiot In one portion of the video above, I forgot to list some high profile and well-heeled big money investors […]   Read More
Date: November 14, 2022

A Crypto Era Ends – And Not Well

Well, well, well. We certainly have too much to cover today. What a few days, culminating with the sensational rags to riches to bankruptcy story of FTX and one of crypto’s most ardent supporters, Sam Bankman-Fried. I’ll say this. A few years ago when I saw him scaling the ranks of crypto architects, I thought he could be one of the posterchilds for crypto and its future blow up. For years I called the whole crypto craze Dotcom 2.0 and […]   Read More
Date: November 11, 2022

***Special Election Update***

I don’t know how I am going to survive not seeing 8 straight commercials targeting MAGA Mike and Liberal Lisa. And who will send me a barrage of texts warning me that Pelosi is wrecking economy and Trump is threatening our democracy. I am so excited that it’s over. I haven’t written much about the actual election because historically, it’s not a market moving event. Those wondering why I haven’t discussed my model for forecasting elections using stock market and […]   Read More
Date: November 9, 2022

Strong Jobs Report But Look Under The Hood

On Friday the government released the employment report. The economy grew by 261,000 jobs versus the 205,000 estimated. On the surface that is great news. However, when you have a Federal Reserve hellbent on destroying demand, this kind of economic strength only feeds fuel to the higher interest rate fire. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% versus the 3.5% estimated. Without getting wonky the birth death model, an algorithmic tool used to estimate new business openings and closings, added […]   Read More
Date: November 7, 2022

Is Your Retirement Safe in Today’s Bond Market?

Between higher interest rates, inflation, and a tumbling stock market, it may feel like your retirement savings are in danger. So, is this a good time to get (or keep) invested in bonds? The short answer is “Not without doing your homework first.” Let’s take a look at the state of the bond market. Once we have a working knowledge of the pros and cons, you can decide from there if bonds are still a safe investment for your retirement. […]   Read More
Date: November 7, 2022

Powell on the Warpath

What a crazy week! It’s good to be in CT and not flying again until December although I really do love seeing so many folks. Three trips in October was plenty. Atlanta, Dallas and Florida. With skiing in Vermont scheduled to open in one week, it’s time to start packing up although it certainly does not seem like Mother Nature will be cooperating anytime soon. She is giving all her winter love to the Wasatch and the Utah ski areas. […]   Read More
Date: November 4, 2022

***Q3 Client Update***

Many people like to read my very “brief” quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. In baseball, people sometimes refer to a homerun as a roundtripper, having started at home and ending at home. This season Aaron Judge of the 27-time world champion New York Yankees hit 62 roundtrippers, the most ever in the American League and really […]   Read More
Date: November 2, 2022

The Most Bullish 6 Months of the Four-Year Cycle

Happy Halloween! This is usually one of my favorite holidays and we planned to be in costume for a party in NYC over but I was still under the weather. And my new cowboy from the Village People costume was all ready! Today is the final day of the month and it has been a seasonally weak day. If history holds serve, Monday is down and then the next four days are up. The stock market is also starting the […]   Read More
Date: October 31, 2022

Market Builds On The Bottom & Still No Recession

I came back Dallas very late Tuesday night and was definitely under the weather. I could feel it building and building for days.Thankfully, it’s not Covid and my doctor said I should be ready to go for Halloween. Traveling isn’t fun when you’re sick. Flying downright stinks. Flight delays from DFW to NYC were just icing on the cake. However, I did have a great trip to NAAIM’s annual Outlook conference which I chaired. I learned a lot, multiples more […]   Read More
Date: October 28, 2022

Sole Survivor: How John’s Planning Supported Jill’s Retirement

Divorce is never easy, but it can be made easier—if you plan for it ahead of time. Believe it or not, you may still retire with confidence in Woodbridge. For example, let’s take a look at how a family working with their financial advisor got through a divorce without undue stress or hardship. We’ll also examine their situation before the split in order to see how they got through it afterward. This article discusses the following: How proactive planning can […]   Read More
Date: October 28, 2022

Confounding The Masses

The bulls came out in force on Friday aided by what was considered to be dovish comments by some Fed members regarding future interest rates hikes. At least that’s what the media attributed the rally to. The reality is that the markets were already set up to rally, but just needed a spark to ignite the gas. Volume came in heavy, but let’s remember that it was the expiration of options where volume typically surges. As I wrote last week, […]   Read More
Date: October 24, 2022