Why CT High-Net-Worth Investors Switch to Active Risk Management During Market Corrections
Market corrections are an unavoidable part of investing, but how you respond to them can have lasting consequences. Why do high-net-worth individuals often move beyond passive investing in favor of active risk management? Because they’re seeking to reduce portfolio exposure when market conditions deteriorate. Rather than remaining fully invested through every downturn, active managers like Heritage Capital LLC use quantitative indicators to evaluate changing market conditions, adjust equity exposure, raise cash when appropriate, and focus on preserving capital until conditions […]
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Date: August 7, 2026
Bulls Asserting Themselves, But…
When we left off on Wednesday, the stock market had powered ahead for four straight days, but I was not convinced that the bottom was in. And I am still not. It was a really fun run that we thoroughly enjoyed with all indices going to new highs except for the NASDAQ 100 below. Of course, the index may play catch up in the coming weeks. Some of our non-leveraged, non-aggressive models have not signaled a new lower risk regime […]
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Date: August 7, 2026
***Q2 Client Update***
Q2 2026 saw lots of fireworks, at least from a financial market perspective. That’s because Q1 closed one day removed from the lowest price levels of the year, so far. The stock market was very oversold and unloved as the new quarter began as hostilities in Iran were in full swing. When all was said and done, the major stock market indices saw double-digit gains with mega cap technology even stronger and semiconductors partying like it was 1999 all over […]
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Date: August 6, 2026
Stocks Soar – Am I Wrong?
It has been one strong bounce for the most beaten down index below, the NASDAQ 100. Four straight big days for the bulls. While it may be a day or two early to use the word “thrust” off that low, there is no denying the rally. I thought 29,000 would be a formidable area for the bears to make a stand. They didn’t even come out to play. From a thesis point of view, I will watch the data over […]
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Date: August 5, 2026
August Has Poor History, GDP Better Underneath & Bottom Coming
I hope everyone had a nice weekend. I had lots of fun playing mixed couples golf on Friday evening and Saturday afternoon. My wife’s the best. A beginner golfer who hates any competition, she hit some great shots through 8 eight holes. After teeing off number 9 of 9 holes, she said, “I’m done. I want a drink”. With that three of us finished the hole and she walked up to order drinks. And we still came in second. On […]
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Date: August 3, 2026
Warsh Sets Record For Worst Two Days As Correction Lives On
Oh boy. What a two days it has been! Newly minted FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh now owns the dubious distinction as having the worst FOMC day stock market returns for the first two meeting. Both days saw 1%+ declines in the S&P 500. As expected, at least by me and many others, no action was taken by the Fed. I just didn’t understand those expecting or calling for a rate hike. Since the previous no action meeting, inflation cooled as […]
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Date: July 31, 2026
***Special Fed Update – No Rate Change – Am I Wrong?***
The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. This is not as high a conviction play as six weeks ago when the rally failed to materialize. FYI, Fed models are not opinions as some have suggested. I am not right or wrong. The models are based on data that we gather, model and analyze on a non-emotional basis. Today is FOMC Chair Warsh’s second meeting. He dropped a number of […]
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Date: July 29, 2026
Bear Trap? NASDAQ 100 Achieves First Downside Target – Bottom Not In But Participation Good
Despite Friday’s down day, more stocks went up than down, a small positive for the battered bulls. The NASDAQ 100 met its first downside target of breaching the June low. Given that pre-market trading shows a big bounce, the market has trapped the bears, at least for now. Let’s see where things stand by the end of the day. The bulls need to close the day in the upper 25% of today’s price range. That will be a tall task […]
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Date: July 27, 2026
Bears In Control – More Downside To Come With Pockets Of Strength
The bears had their way on Thursday. It was an ugly day, but not across the board with more than a net of 1200 stocks going down on the day. Once again, the Russell small caps outperformed. Industrials, healthcare, energy and utilities bucked the trend. Don’t discount the importance of small caps outperforming on the upside and downside. The bull market ain’t over folks. I am sharing this same chart of the NASDAQ 100 again. It should answer the same […]
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Date: July 24, 2026
Tuesday’s Rally Unimpressive – Yields Up – Gold Opp
The stock market had a very good rally on Tuesday, but there were only 235 more stocks going up than down. That shows some underlying weakness and a return to the narrow market. With the back of the momentum machine broken, this type of behavior is more supportive of my pullback thesis than a big run above the old highs. The NASDAQ 100 is below. It is bouncing because it pulled back to the June low. On the next trip […]
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Date: July 22, 2026
More Downside Coming But Bull Market Is Not Over
I think of myself as a good listener. I am very keen to what people say and how they react. Earlier this year, friends were bragging about the gold/silver trade and quoting their YTD performance and how large their allocations were to the sector. Que Mr. Market and his punishment. Those folks have quieted down just a tad. Lately, I have been hearing from the debt doom and gloom crowd. One person even said that another Great Depression is close […]
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Date: July 20, 2026
Unwinding The Parabolic Advances
So many things I find interesting about questions from readers. Among my favorites are either asking about positions we do not own or telling me that I should have owned something. It was only earlier this year when folks from all walks of life gave me strong advice on buying silver. Both clusters were right before the collapses. I have long written that our Unloved Gems strategy missed the big semiconductor trade, having only owned Intel and Nvidia. Over the […]
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Date: July 17, 2026
Cooler Inflation Data Is Something To Celebrate But Not For Naysayers
On Tuesday and Wednesday the government released June inflation data for the CPI and PPI. I have written that our model indicated cooler inflation numbers, just as it had indicated warmer data during spring. Well folks, inflation fell much more than expected and revised data from May was cooler. Once again on social media, economic data has become political. So before I get one of those conspiracy theorist replies, I will say it again. I 100% trust the data. I […]
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Date: July 15, 2026
S&P 500 Poised For ATHs – Permas Are Just Plain Wrong
Last week’s long-term bearish post certainly generated emails and comments. Even though I couched my comments with my current non-bear market forecast, folks still only read select words and hammered me on how low the market is going now. I remain of the opinion that the worst case right now is 6-11% down and then all-time highs. The Fed will pivot by year-end to the dovish camp. Inflation is decelerating. The S&P 500 is below. Guess what folks? I think […]
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Date: July 13, 2026
Bear Market Coming But Not Like This
The other day, I wrote about some major bear market warnings. Record low cash in portfolios, Bob Shiller’s CAPE and Warren Buffett’s total stock market value divided by GDP. You can add in margin debt as well. All four of these tell us that a very large decline or outright bear market is coming. But before you get all hot and bothered, of course the next bear market is coming. These indicators just tell us that risk increased and should […]
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Date: July 10, 2026
Don’t Let Long-Term Warnings Cloud The Next Few Quarters
Thanks to all those who attended our quarterly client webinar last night. I love the questions. The more the merrier! Staying on the theme of what keeps me up at night, as I mentioned, I sleep great when our strategies are struggling. I rarely get concerned having been in the business for 38 years. I do sleep poorly and get concerned when our strategies are making unreasonable amounts of money because I know risk is elevated or high. A reckoning […]
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Date: July 8, 2026
Weaker Employment – Lower Inflation – Rate Cut
I hope everyone had a memorable 250th birthday celebration! Some friends and I did a little reminiscing about the bicentennial from our days at Camp Laurelwood in between the parties and golf and trying to stay cool. Thankfully, the heat wave broke and some much needed liquid is falling from the sky today. The June employment report was released on Thursday and it showed an increase of 57,000 new jobs, roughly half what was expected. The unemployment rate fell to […]
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Date: July 6, 2026
Pieces For A 10% Correction But No Bear Market
Happy 250th America! In true American spirit it will be hot as a firecracker in CT through July 4th, maybe a little too hot for me. Friday will be a good day to work in my ice cold office with Renee taking off in the morning and then sit in a pool after that. I can’t imagine wanting to play golf, but ya never know. We have a new month and new quarter here with lots of stats and trends. […]
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Date: July 2, 2026
Do Mid-Term Elections Affect the Stock Market? What High-Net-Worth Investors Need To Know
Worried about how the mid-term elections will impact your investments? Every two years, headlines begin predicting how a change in Washington could alter the direction of the economy and financial markets. Investors are bombarded with forecasts, political commentary, and warnings about what may happen if one party gains or loses power. For affluent households, election cycles can create pressure to make changes at exactly the wrong time. Emotional decisions during periods of political debate can interrupt years of disciplined investing […]
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Date: June 30, 2026
Stock Market Indices Rotate – Reversing Haves & Have Nots
As I have been discussing for a few weeks, the stock market’s leadership and regime have changed. The first chart is the NASDAQ 100 which is chock full of the sexy, AI and mega cap stocks. It peaked a month ago. More important, please focus on that blue arrow from last week where the index opened sharply lower. The longer the index goes without regaining the 30,500 level, the more significant the downside potentially becomes and below the June low […]
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Date: June 29, 2026
