Stock Market Pullback Proceeding on Schedule – Gold, Apple & Nvidia

Since the March 27th peak, we have seen a few mild pullbacks in the major stock market indices. That March high although late in the quarter is precisely what our work had been suggesting since the year began. As usual, they didn’t make it easy. I remain of the opinion that it was not a peak of significance. Rather, the market would embark on a one to two month decline that would be less than 10% and bottom by Memorial […]   Read More
Date: April 12, 2024

All Eyes on CPI But Does It Matter?

With the Consumer Price Index due out at 8:30am, that is almost guaranteed to be the talk of the day. As I have been mentioning all year, my thesis is that inflation remains stubbornly elevated with 3% being the new 2%. I have been writing about inflation bottoming and the last few months have certainly proven that. I don’t have strong conviction about this one single number. When I look at the yield on the 10-Year Treasury, it broke out […]   Read More
Date: April 10, 2024

Another Strong Employment Report Confounds The Bears

On Friday, the March jobs report showed 303,000 new jobs created which was well above expectations of 202,000 once again. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% while wages increased 4.1% over the past 12 months. The Goldilocks economy with elevated inflation continues to defy the odds and critics. One by one almost every single tried and true predictor of recession has flashed since 2021 with varying lead times until the economy shrinks. But someone forgot to tell the economy to […]   Read More
Date: April 8, 2024

Who Turned The Lights Out?

Greetings from the Valley of the Sun where my daughter and I are hoping the UCONN men can win their second straight national championship. My body got a shock as the temp at the hotel was 90 at the same time as another major winter storm hit Vermont with another 18 inches of snow. Catching up with a childhood friend and her husband is one of the unintended benefits. As I flew to Phoenix I watched as early morning strength […]   Read More
Date: April 5, 2024

Two-Day Decline – No One Cares

Two down days in the stock market, but it certainly didn’t feel like folks cared much as stocks closed near their high for the day on Tuesday. And the down days were barely noticeable on a chart. Here are the charts of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. As you know I have been looking for a Q1 peak followed by a less than 10% decline that wraps up by Memorial Day. We will see if that March peak holds […]   Read More
Date: April 3, 2024

New Week, Month and Quarter Begin – Back to Narrowness

As expected, Thursday was a very quiet day in the markets ahead of the long holiday weekend as well as closing out March and Q1. The government released its monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report which is a favorite of the Fed and it showed inflation came in as expected, up 0.3% for the month and 2% for the trailing 12 months. Early last week, I discussed how the week had a strong seasonal tendency to the upside. The S&P […]   Read More
Date: April 1, 2024

The Masses Said Small Caps Were Death & Going To Spiral Lower

Today is the last day of the week, month and quarter as markets are closed in observance of Good Friday. March and Q1 definitely flew by! As a reminder I will be conducting my quarterly webinar on Wednesday at 7:30pm where I review the events of Q1, discuss our strategies and their performance as well as take a sneak peak into what is ahead in Q2. Markets remain very quiet with low volatility. I don’t know why they do this, […]   Read More
Date: March 28, 2024

Volatility Is Depressed But It Should Be

My publishing schedule is a bit off this week and I am not sure when I will publish the rest of the week. My apologies. This week is seasonally strong. Historically, there is an 85%+ chance that the week is up. Those are fairly good odds, but very hard to trade in a vacuum. I am glad our models covered our short trade and increased exposure to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 into the down day on Monday. Volatility […]   Read More
Date: March 26, 2024

Top Retirement Questions Answered By Fiduciary Financial Advisors

When you think about retirement, what comes to mind? Most people think about pleasant images of relaxation, activities (golf, pickleball), travel, and spending more time with family and friends. Ideally, your early retirement years can be very enjoyable, but you should also be preparing for your mid and late-retirement years when your lifestyle begins to change. Plus, you can be retired for 30 or more years, so the earlier you start planning, the better. Running out of money late in […]   Read More
Date: March 25, 2024

Less Is More In 2024

The model for Fed day could not have been any more perfect. Stocks traded in a narrow range and then saw big moves in both directions before racing higher into the close as Jay Powell confirmed their forecast of interest rate cuts later in the year. Right now, I think he may eat some of those words as inflation remains stubbornly above their 2% target. Recall that I commented on Fox Business that 3% is the new 2% without recession. […]   Read More
Date: March 22, 2024

Fed Has Cover For Rates Cuts But Inflation Not Giving Up

Today is FOMC statement day when their two-day meeting ends and Jay Powell gives his press conference after a statement is released keeping interest rates where they are, commenting on inflation and then letting everyone know that rate cuts are on the way later than sooner. The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a big move or two. Since the outlier banking issues in March 2023, I have said that the […]   Read More
Date: March 20, 2024

Stock Market Trend Morphing As It Weakens

Anyone notice how the gains have moderated lately? The stock market seems to be transitioning from strongly up to modestly up and sideways. Here is the Dow Industrials. Not a lot to criticize nor worry about. Just an observation. Here is the NASDAQ 100. And finally, the Russell 2000. This is how markets digest or mildly correct after a big run. And as I have written for some time, I am looking for a Q1 peak, followed by a low […]   Read More
Date: March 18, 2024

Successful Investors Do Not Sit On Their Hands

Thursday was a day to punish some bulls. Lots of the sexy and glamorous stuff got hit. My readers weren’t surprised as I have been writing about it for weeks and longer. I have spoken about good portfolio management of pruning and planting, cutting exposure and risk and in favor of the boring, stodgy and unloved. I lost count how many times I have written about booking gains in the high flyers, like Nvidia, Facebook, Marvel, Broadcom, Apple, Microsoft and […]   Read More
Date: March 15, 2024

Be a Smart Investor – Don’t Hold On For Dear Life

You have to give credit where it’s due. The bulls have been relentless for almost 18 months, but certainly over the past 5 months. It’s  been incredibly impressive and a pleasure to enjoy. These kinds of runs are semi-generational. When I look at our strategy lineup, I don’t recall anything as strong as this nor as widespread in my 35 year career. Granted, it’s not apples to apples because we have 18 strategies today and I started with one single […]   Read More
Date: March 13, 2024

Emotional Reversal on Friday in Tech, Semis and Nvidia

Friday saw one of those emotional reversals where the day began all bulled up with lots of celebrations from those who came late to the party. It ended with the bears overwhelming the bulls heading into the weekend. While those kinds of days look ugly on a chart, we need to see follow through selling early this week to have any significance. Below is the NASDAQ 100 which is dominated by all those popular tech names. Epic run since October. […]   Read More
Date: March 11, 2024

Are You Affluent? Understanding How Heritage Capital Defines Wealth

When I speak with people about managing their money, it always surprises me how often they don’t believe they are affluent or considered “high-net-worth,” even if they have $500,000 or more of investable assets. Since this happens fairly often, I decided to write a blog based on the true definition of wealth because it means different things to different people. Determining wealth is a personal journey that goes far beyond mere numbers. It’s about matching your life goals and values […]   Read More
Date: March 11, 2024

State of The Union & The Markets

It’s amazing how many people ask me about the election and the impact of politics on the markets. I think that’s because all we hear is how the other person is going to wreck the economy and crash the markets. As with most commonly held beliefs, it’s all pure nonsense. There is no correlation to any of this. No single president has ever nor ever will have that kind of impact. Last night was the State of the Union (SOTU). […]   Read More
Date: March 8, 2024

Don’t Marry Stocks – You Will End in Divorce

As has been the theme all quarter we continue to prune and plant, reducing exposure in those areas that have essentially melted up and adding exposure in areas that have not. In other words, you could say that we have cut back on those handful of super sexy stocks and sectors and rebalanced into the rest of the market. Again, that is how you successfully manage portfolios for the long-term. Otherwise, your portfolio ends up severely overweighted in a small […]   Read More
Date: March 6, 2024

Small Caps Beat The Bears – NYCB Did Not

The markets sure have been resilient. In the strongest of uptrends which this clearly is, all the bears get are 1-3 day pullbacks where they all wonder, “is this it, the top?” Last week, the S&P 500 had a very mild early week pullback along with the NASDAQ 100. By weeks end, they were at fresh all-time highs. At the same time the two aforementioned indices were slightly declining, the Russell 2000 index of small companies was going up. You […]   Read More
Date: March 4, 2024

Inflation Versus High Prices

Happy Friday! Rather than a written blog today, I did a video on the most asked question of late regarding inflation versus high prices. Weekend is here and as far as the eye can see, Mother Nature is back to her unkind ways in New England. Cold, thaw, rain, warm, rinse and repeat. Of course, my buddies at Kirkwood are preparing for 120-150 inches of snow over the next 5 days. Now that is insane! On Wednesday we bought levered […]   Read More
Date: March 1, 2024