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Taxes Going Up – Bears Get Selling

The stock market continues to trade heavy without much magnitude on the downside so far. The WHY isn’t important as you know market reaction is much more so. In a perfect world, as I wrote the other day, I would like to see one more decline to new lows for the week and then a reversal to the upside to begin a run to new highs. That bottom could be the offing next week. Biden and Congressional Democrats seem lined […]   Read More
Date: September 17, 2021

Bulls Biding Time

6 out of 7 days down for the S&P 500 and a scary 2% overall decline. If you listen to paid actors like Jim Cramer, you would think this is a bear market and things are really bad. It was only a few months ago when he implored investors on June 18 not to buy because some technical analyst said the market “always” heads lower to month-end. By the way, June 18 was the low of a three-day pullback and […]   Read More
Date: September 15, 2021

Make That 5 In a Row

Five days in a row stocks have been down. That’s pretty ominous. I mean, after all, the S&P 500 is down a full 1%. It’s time to call the market police. Friday was a bit on the ugly side with the largest down of the five. However, volume was less for the fourth straight day while the S&P 500 has been in an uptrend. Historically, that recipe has been good for a very short-term rally. Add into that we have […]   Read More
Date: September 13, 2021

What You May Not Know About Robo Advisors and Target Date Funds

The initial enthusiasm for something new is sadly often followed by disappointment when more facts come to light. In the investment world, two items that have become popular in the last decade are target date retirement funds and robo advisors. Each promised to provide cost-efficient investment management and superior results. But what has become clear is that whatever their merits, these two methodologies have a number of flaws that require careful consideration. This is especially true when it comes to […]   Read More
Date: September 13, 2021

Remembering 9/11 – Never Forget

20 years since the most heinous attack on American soil. Like previous generations who had their indelible moments, my generation has 9-11. I remember 20 years ago when people said where they were when President Kennedy was assassinated. My grandparents used to talk about Pearl Harbor. On September 10, 2001 I sat at my favorite restaurant in the world, Bern’s Steakhouse, with two buddies debating whether we should make the last flight out and head home from Tampa or stay […]   Read More
Date: September 11, 2021

Bulls Should Be In a Buying Mood

Do people realize that the S&P 500 has been down three straight days? That seems like a lot, but the magnitude has been all of -0.50%. Between the holiday-shortened week and Rosh Hashanah, liquidity has been on the low side. That should start to normalize today and certainly next week. I expect the bulls to put money to work at some point on Thursday morning and we will see later today if that sticks. On the index leadership front, the […]   Read More
Date: September 9, 2021

How to Recover from Financial Loss Right Before Retirement Age

After carefully contributing to your retirement accounts for decades, it can be quite devastating to experience a financial loss just as you prepare to retire. However, while it may feel like it, the world isn’t coming to an end. You can take steps to recover from an untimely loss, but it requires that you keep your perspective rather than surrendering to fear. At Heritage Capital, we can help. How? Here’s an example.   When and Why This Can Happen An […]   Read More
Date: September 6, 2021

Jobs Report Lays Another Egg

The August Nonfarm Payrolls Report was released at 8:30am today. Boy, was it another stinker relative to what was expected. 235,000 new jobs were created, embarrassingly below the 750,000 that was expected. However, the unemployment rate did tick lower by .2%. No matter what spin the Biden administration puts out, the economy continues to have its dislocations and struggles. That’s indisputable. “But Paul, 235,000 new jobs is good, right?” In a vacuum, it is. However at this stage of the […]   Read More
Date: September 3, 2021

Beware September – Or So The Uninformed Say

I can’t believe summer ends this weekend. What a crummy summer it has been in New England, especially the weekends. It’s not fair. It’s not fair. It’s not fair. As the calendar turns plenty of pundits have been discussing that September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks. That’s is factually correct. Depending on which year you cherry pick the starting date, September averages a negative return of -1.10% since 1928. However, the devil is really in […]   Read More
Date: September 1, 2021

Powell to the Rescue!

Boy, I did not expect such a bullish market reaction to Jay Powell’s 10am speech on Friday. Powell did not say anything outside the norm, but the market interpreted it as being more dovish, even though the taper is in full view now. I guess people did not believe Powell had strong tapering conviction, even though the Fed paraded out no less than five regional bank presidents who were all lined up for the taper to be announced in September […]   Read More
Date: August 30, 2021

Huge Market Day w/ Powell & Inflation

All summer, Fed watchers have been pointing to August 27 at 10am, for that was when Chair Jay Powell would deliver his keynote remarks at the Fed’s annual spa retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. FYI, the conference has been moved to virtual and Powell’s speech will be televised nationally. Heading up to the speech, Fed heads have been paraded out with a common theme and message. It’s time to taper. It’s time to announce the reduction of asset purchases which […]   Read More
Date: August 27, 2021

No Key Sectors Supporting Bulls

The stock market begins the new week looking to continue to bounce back from the mild pullback last week. As I have written before, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have barely seen any weakness, but the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 have seen meaningful pullbacks over the past few months. In what would be the most unlikely of scenarios, it would be super interesting and surprising if the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 gathered themselves for a run to […]   Read More
Date: August 23, 2021

Tech Holding Up Indices, For Now

Of course, a hurricane is coming to New England this weekend. After years of denying we needed a generator, I took the plunge in March, only to find out that one tiny part was on back order until June. Then it was July and now August. Lucky me, the part came in this week, but the electrician cannot do the install because he is busy getting generators ready for the storm. So, I am sure that we will lose power […]   Read More
Date: August 20, 2021

Market Not Running on All Cylinders

I keep chuckling when I listen to people talk about the pullback in stocks. After all folks, the S&P 500 is one single day removed from all-time highs. Same for the Dow Industrials. The NASDAQ 100 is close. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 continue to lag and warn that something isn’t right. However, none of my key sectors are at or close to new highs, another warning sign. Ask me which sectors are at new relative highs. Go ahead. […]   Read More
Date: August 18, 2021

Lots of Warning Signs Remain But Geopolitics Isn’t Among Them

I have read a number of articles comparing Kabul falling to Saigon falling in 1975. In both cases the markets were nonplussed and behaved within the realm of normalcy. That’s where we are today. Stocks look to open lower, but nothing out of the ordinary. The markets have bigger warnings as I have been discussing for weeks that to worry about an event halfway around the world that has zero economic significance. Regardless of how you felt about our presence […]   Read More
Date: August 16, 2021

Markets Continue to React Counterintuitively to Inflation

As you know my thinking regarding inflation has changed over the past few months following the reports released in May and June. Both of those showed white hot inflation with very counterintuitive market reaction. By that, I mean that the securities that should have fallen hard actually rallied and vice versa. After the April report was released in mid-May I thought it was just an anomaly, but back to back odd reactions had me rethinking my thesis. Take a look […]   Read More
Date: August 13, 2021

***Q2 Client Update*** – Excerpts

Many people like to read my very brief quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop right now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. It seemed like yesterday when every piece of news was dark and uncertain. People were acutely concerned about their survival and less about their finances. 2020 was a year where time almost stood still. 2021 could not have been any more the […]   Read More
Date: August 11, 2021

Warning Signs Abound

Stocks begin the new week with most of the same challenges as I have been discussing. The five major stock market indices are not all in syn as the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 remain well below their all-time highs. While semis and discretionary are at or near new highs, transports and banks are well below. The NYSE A/D Line is repairing itself, but it is still a strong few days from new highs. Whether we are looking at the […]   Read More
Date: August 9, 2021

7 Reasons You May Want to Switch Financial Advisors

Your financial advisor owes you attentive, personalized service that produces successful results. Unfortunately, some financial advisors tend to take their clients for granted. Others turn out to be disappointments for a variety of reasons. You don’t have to put up with a financial advisor who falls short of your expectations and requirements. Instead, you can exercise your prerogative to switch to a new financial advisor who will provide you the treatment you deserve. How? Check out our new guide: Switching […]   Read More
Date: August 9, 2021

Some Canaries Are Struggling to Breathe

On Friday the government will release the July non farm payrolls report, better known as the monthly employment report. The payroll firm, ADP, released their monthly report on Wednesday and it showed a much weaker jobs market than most thought possible. Interestingly, neither the stock nor bond market reacted well. I put very little stock in the ADP report has its correlation to the real one is underwhelming. In other words it has some nice hits and some big strikeouts. […]   Read More
Date: August 5, 2021