Sector Canaries Healthy with Some Small Wounds
Turning to the four key sectors I follow, we don’t have as strong a picture as the major indices, but they are still okay. Semis are first and they have been the strongest for some time, almost too strong, but that’s a topic for a different piece. While they have yet to eclipse their Dotcom bubble high from 2000, they continue to make new highs for this bull market.
Banks are next and after a dizzying pace following the election and prospects for reduced financial regulation, they leveled off and are now under pressure from the potential for less rate hikes. Banks should do better in a tightening cycle as rates move farther and farther from zero where their net interest margins improve dramatically. Their early March peak is in line with where it should be, worst case and this is not flashing warning signs just yet.
Consumer Discretionary is next and it looks somewhat similar to the semis with a series of new (and healthy) highs.
Finally, the Dow Transports are below. They peaked with the majority of the stock market in early March, but have since shown the most weakness of the four key sectors. This is the one I would most keep an eye on for future warning signs.
All in all, the sector canaries remain alive but a tiny bit wounded.
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