Fed statement day was certainly atypical and a volatile affair. Early strength was sold into which accelerated after the 2pm announcement. And Just when it looked like the bears would turn the day into a rout, the 3pm bell rung and the bulls came roaring back to life. What was most interesting was that while the Fed didn’t say much in their statement and actually was slightly more positive on the economy, it was the defensive groups, like REITs and utilities that acted the best on the day.
Two very reliably bullish short-term studies did not deliver on statement day which sets up a mildly negative trend for today and possibly longer. Keep in mind that the bull market remains intact as does this leg of the bull market. The rally is not over just yet. Leadership continues to be strong and only high yield bonds are offering any warning. It will be interesting to see if the defensive groups stay strong today, not to mention on Friday when we have the employment report. Unless it really lays an egg, the Fed will be raising rates 6 weeks from now.
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