Tariff Tantrum Part ?
Here we go again? Kinda? Sorta? Donald Trump was at it again this morning with threats of 50% tariffs on the European Union along with specifically targeting Apple. I remember telling folks after the supposed China “deal” that it wasn’t the end. It was the end of the beginning. And my opinion remains that the worst has been seen on the tariff front. Additionally, I still believe that one day this year we will wake up to bad news on […]
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Date: May 23, 2025
Another U.S. Debt Downgrade – Buy Weakness
The big news of the day is actually what came on Friday right after 4pm. Credit rater Moody’s downgraded the U.S. from AAA to Aa1 in a mostly symbolic move. It is also more than 13 years after S&P began the downgrade process in August 2011. In short, while the move was long overdue and correct, it is stale and pretty much meaningless. Everyone and their dog knows our fiscal path is not sustainable. Politicians are 100% to blame, on […]
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Date: May 19, 2025
NASDAQ 100 New Highs – Gold Setting Up – Semis
The bulls have completely run over the bears much quicker than I thought and to a larger degree than I thought. That’s okay. No problem here. The NASDAQ 100 below has its sights on the old highs. I didn’t think that was in the cards until later this year. But here we are. People are getting more bullish which is expected. That’s okay until it’s not, meaning that bullishness is fine as long as it doesn’t get greedy, giddy and […]
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Date: May 16, 2025
What’s Been Falling As Stocks Soar Post Another 20% Plunge
I don’t have to say that it’s good to be home yet again because my trip to Florida never happened. I had scheduled client get togethers for Orlando, Melbourne and Boca on Monday with a few more on Tuesday. My flight kept getting delayed 10-15 at a time with mechanical issues. At the 90 minute mark I knew I would miss Orlando and jeopardize Melbourne. Then news came of severe weather in Florida. The choice became easy. I received a […]
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Date: May 14, 2025
Tariffs Trump Tired
Greetings from being back in CT! My flight to Florida has been delayed for mechanical reasons and the airline isn’t sure when or even if it’s going to fly. Last Friday I wrote about the stock market being tired. It had rallied very far and very fast, similar to how it plunged in April although the downs are almost always sharper than the ups. I thought maybe some sideways action or a few percent lower. The news of the weekend […]
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Date: May 12, 2025
Tired
My flight back from CA to JFK was delayed because of weather and a not functioning lavatory. And then we had to fly around the storms which made it longer. Upon landing, wait for it, the gate was not ready. And my parking lot took 30 minutes to pick me up. So folks, here is a short update on a few hours of sleep. Like me, stocks are a bit tired. Tariff news has been good this week, but stocks […]
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Date: May 9, 2025
***Special Fed Day Update – Powell & Company Wrong Again – Stocks Heading To New Highs***
After four crummy weather days, Mother Nature is apparently going to offer some sun and warmth in Southern CA, not that I have been outside since Sunday. The conference ends today and it’s been a tiring week so far, chairing the conference committee and keeping everything running smoothly and on time. I am looking forward to a half day free tomorrow morning before flying home. It’s FOMC day for the Fed. The stock market model is plus or minus 0.50% […]
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Date: May 7, 2025
***Q1 Client Update***
Following the election of Donald Trump to a second term, I broke with the vast majority of pundits and media when I had high conviction that 2025 would not be a repeat of 2017 where we saw animal spirits unleashed and markets soar. 2017 was all about the largest tax cut in history along with massive deregulation. Combined, that likely added hundreds of billions if not trillions into corporate coffers and individual balance sheets to stimulate an economy that didn’t […]
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Date: May 6, 2025
Bears Still Hate And Disavow – Pullback Here
Greetings from Orange County, CA where the weather is anything but sunny. In fact, it is cool, drizzly and foggy. I actually have layers on. And why did I leave sunny CT? Friday was another very strong day for the bulls with 2150 stocks up and only 500 down on the day. It was also the 9th straight up day for the S&P 500 which has carried higher during this first rally off the bottom than I would have thought. […]
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Date: May 5, 2025
8 Straight For The Bulls As Some Bears Throw In The Towel
Make it 8 straight, I think. What a rally off of the April 7th crash bottom. Lots and lots of folks fought and disavowed the rally as just a dead rat bounce in a longer-term bear market. I sense that Thursday saw some change as bears were giving up and opening the door to the rally being for real. Where have they been? My operating thesis was that the S&P 500 would rally to the 5500-5600 area before the bears […]
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Date: May 2, 2025
