Eliminating One Scenario
Since the whole idea of tariffs and trade wars became reality this year, I have said that we will know when the market has fully priced it all in. That day comes when Donald Trump announces some new and large tariffs, but the stock market rallies. That will tell us that the market has moved on to other worries. That day is not today. Stocks saw sharp losses on Friday that were reversed after President Trump waffled again on the […]
Read More
Date: March 24, 2025
Three Scenarios For The Next Few Months
The stock market enters Friday with a very modest gain on the week. However, pre-market looks weak and that gain will likely be wiped away. The bounce from the recent low has been impressive with back to back days where 90% of the volume took place in stocks that went up. But that is not a bell ringing buy signal in the short-term. It does indicate that the majority of the price damage has been done. A good number of […]
Read More
Date: March 21, 2025
***SPECIAL Fed Day Update – Powell Behind The Curve Yet Again – Stocks To New Highs?***
The model for today is plus or minus 0.50% and then a rally after 2pm. It’s a decent signal, but not as good after the bulls rallied stocks into the close. However, any morning weakness towards 0.50% should be bought. Jay Powell and the FOMC are going to leave interest rates unchanged today and likely pivot to dovish with the possibility of a rate cut in May. They SHOULD be cutting rates by 0.25% today and another 0.25% in May […]
Read More
Date: March 19, 2025
“A” Low Has Been Seen
Stocks finally saw a meaningful bounce on Friday. I imagine there were an awful lot of people short the market on Thursday when the S&P 500 breached the recent lows. 90% of the volume came in stocks that went up. Longtime readers may recall that 90% is an historically significant number as it is a confirmation sign of the bulls regaining control. However, before we get too excited that the final bottom is in, this is a process. A 90% […]
Read More
Date: March 17, 2025
Still Not About Tariffs – Zone For a Bottom – Not a Decline To Do Nothing
Stocks continue to correct on a compressed path to what I have been discussing. In hindsight, obviously, we know that this is the 10%+ decline over 7-9 weeks I forecast was coming in Q2 or Q3 and not the mid-single decline I saw for Q1. Nonetheless, it doesn’t change anything in my view nor forecast. If you are keeping score at home, the NASDAQ 100 is down 12% since its last high on February 19th while the S&P 500 has […]
Read More
Date: March 14, 2025
Bulls Need Less Momentum As Stocks Correct Lower
The markets continue to be more challenging to maneuver. Friday was the third time and second Friday during the pullback where stocks sold off sharply and then rallied to close well. The previous two times, the bears came right back to work the next day to thwart the bulls. The bulls will absolutely need to break that behavior for any kind of low to form. Pre-market looks like another ugly morning. And I would speculate that Friday’s lowest point will […]
Read More
Date: March 10, 2025
Tariffs, DOGE and The REAL Reason Why The Markets Are Cranky
Tariffs, DOGE and The REAL Reason Why The Markets Are Cranky On Wednesday we bought EWS, ITB and more FDN. We sold EIS, XLB and some FXI. On Thursday we sold PCY, EMB, some GDX and some XMMO.
Read More
Date: March 7, 2025
***Q4 Client Report***
While many events took place in Q4, none were more important nor high profile than the election. And certainly, we haven’t seen an election more anticipated than this past one. And I hope we don’t ever again although I know that is unlikely. Recall that coming into the election I offered that the single best outcome for your money and the markets was shared power, meaning neither party swept. That would force a number of grand bargains without a single […]
Read More
Date: March 6, 2025
Eggs or Energy?
The S&P 500 is now down 6% on a closing basis and the NASDAQ 100 is down 8%. The opportunity I just wrote about on Monday evaporated quickly that day and we took action in both directions as I wasn’t willing to let small losses turn into large ones on new positions. The magnitude of this pullback is stretching what I expected if this decline was to be the appetizer for the 7-9 week, 10%+ correction I saw coming in […]
Read More
Date: March 5, 2025
Bulls Step Up – An Opportunity Worth Playing
As you know my working thesis has been that the recent mid-single digit pullback is not the 10%+ correction I forecast for 2025. Rather, I thought the Q1 pullback would lead to another rally, new highs or not, that would be followed by the bigger decline. The bulls stepped up in a big way on Friday as they pushed the markets much higher into the week’s and quarter’s end. Sentiment continues to become less bullish which is good for stocks. […]
Read More
Date: March 3, 2025
