Buying Assets, Not Emotions: Q4 Strategic Roth Conversions
Every year, investors experience a mix of optimism and anxiety as markets move into the fourth quarter. Between talk of recessions, “tariff tantrums,” “new highs for the national debt” ($38 trillion and rising), and election noise, emotional decision-making tends to increase, and with it, costly mistakes. At Heritage Capital, we believe the final months of the year are not a time for emotional investment decisions, but rather a time for updating existing plans and creating new ones. Specifically, Q4 is […]
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Date: November 18, 2025
Master Of The Universe Closes Firm – Concerning
Last week, famed perma-bear, Michael Burry, announced he was closing up shop because his models have not been in sync with the markets for many years. Before dismissing this as just another Chicken Little calling it quits, Burry did parlay his Armageddon view into billions during the Great Financial Crisis which later became the book and movie called The Big Short. Since his generational trade 17 years ago, almost every single public call he has made has been a dud […]
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Date: November 17, 2025
Pucker Up – One Of My Most Hated Setups
For all of the cringe-worthy commentary from the media and pundits you would think the stock market is down at least 10%. It’s not. At its worst last week, the pullback was 5%. Thursday was an ugly day after a nice rally off of last week’s low. One of my most hated setups is when the stock market forms a low, rallies but does not make a new high and then rolls over; exactly what is currently happening. That can […]
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Date: November 14, 2025
Dow Surges To All-Time Highs – Narrowness Not Totally Narrow
As I tweeted and wrote here, last Friday was not a day to sit on your hands and do nothing. Stocks got down to the -5% pullback line where the healthiest of bull markets like to find buyers. And some of our models replanted cash into some “risk on” areas. The risk/reward looked to be roughly 2/1 to the upside with a close below Friday’s low as the point at which I would know I was wrong. Somewhat oddly, the […]
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Date: November 12, 2025
DC Gets Back To Work – New Highs With Defined Risk
The nonsense that was yet another government shutdown has apparently ended. While there has been bipartisan support to reopen the government for weeks, there is now the 60 votes required in the Senate. Focusing solely on the economy and markets, the great news is that the government will quickly gather and release a slew of economic data that was unable to be received during the shutdown. As such, markets will need some time to digest and may cause some short-lived […]
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Date: November 10, 2025
Pullback Continues Into Next Week
Last week a number of our models downgraded the stock market against the backdrop of euphoric and greedy pockets. On Wednesday I thought we could see a bounce in the S&P 500, but the other indices were not in the same place. I also thought the S&P could still end up a few hundred points lower. I have heard folks targeting the average price of the last 50 days which is only a percent lower from here. It seems to […]
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Date: November 7, 2025
Models No Longer All Bullish – A Look At The Indices
Last week, a number of our stock market models turned neutral to negative as I wrote in my Fed update post. That creates some crosscurrents given the seasonal tailwind and higher volatility stocks leading lower volatility stocks for most of the rally. The bull market is not over so folks do not need to ask about that. The best case for the bears is that stocks are entering a period of sideways activity that frustrates everyone. The S&P 500 is […]
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Date: November 5, 2025
***Q3 Client Update***
The third quarter of 2025 certainly had a lot going on, both in terms of geopolitical events, markets and the economy. Similar to Q2, the stock and bond markets were sanguine, rewarding investors who accepted varying amounts of risk with the S&P 500 up by 8% and the equivalent bond index (Barclay’s Aggregate) ahead by 2%. The economy continued to exceed expectations. Coming into Q3 I expected a quieter quarter than we saw in Q2 in terms of market volatility […]
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Date: November 3, 2025
End-of-Year Tax Planning for High-Net-Worth Individuals in Connecticut
The end of the year is coming quickly, offering a valuable window to make strategic tax moves before December 31. With economic shifts, ongoing market volatility, and evolving tax laws, waiting until the last minute can leave you scrambling and potentially missing out on meaningful tax savings. Rather than reacting to surprises in the new year, proactive planning now can help position your wealth more efficiently. These final months are critical, whether you’re preparing for retirement, selling a business, or […]
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Date: November 3, 2025
Fed To Cut Rates, Dow 50,000 But Bumpy First, Buying Silver & Gold
Lots to cover today and not enough time. First, I am traveling the next four business days so my publishing schedule may be off. Today the FOMC concludes its meeting where they will cut interest rates by 1/4%. The stock market model is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. With stocks at all-time highs and having rallied so smartly into the meeting, the success rate for a final two hour rally declines and the odds increase […]
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Date: October 29, 2025
