Fed Has Cover For Rates Cuts But Inflation Not Giving Up
Today is FOMC statement day when their two-day meeting ends and Jay Powell gives his press conference after a statement is released keeping interest rates where they are, commenting on inflation and then letting everyone know that rate cuts are on the way later than sooner. The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a big move or two. Since the outlier banking issues in March 2023, I have said that the […]
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Date: March 20, 2024
Stock Market Trend Morphing As It Weakens
Anyone notice how the gains have moderated lately? The stock market seems to be transitioning from strongly up to modestly up and sideways. Here is the Dow Industrials. Not a lot to criticize nor worry about. Just an observation. Here is the NASDAQ 100. And finally, the Russell 2000. This is how markets digest or mildly correct after a big run. And as I have written for some time, I am looking for a Q1 peak, followed by a low […]
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Date: March 18, 2024
Successful Investors Do Not Sit On Their Hands
Thursday was a day to punish some bulls. Lots of the sexy and glamorous stuff got hit. My readers weren’t surprised as I have been writing about it for weeks and longer. I have spoken about good portfolio management of pruning and planting, cutting exposure and risk and in favor of the boring, stodgy and unloved. I lost count how many times I have written about booking gains in the high flyers, like Nvidia, Facebook, Marvel, Broadcom, Apple, Microsoft and […]
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Date: March 15, 2024
Be a Smart Investor – Don’t Hold On For Dear Life
You have to give credit where it’s due. The bulls have been relentless for almost 18 months, but certainly over the past 5 months. It’s been incredibly impressive and a pleasure to enjoy. These kinds of runs are semi-generational. When I look at our strategy lineup, I don’t recall anything as strong as this nor as widespread in my 35 year career. Granted, it’s not apples to apples because we have 18 strategies today and I started with one single […]
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Date: March 13, 2024
Emotional Reversal on Friday in Tech, Semis and Nvidia
Friday saw one of those emotional reversals where the day began all bulled up with lots of celebrations from those who came late to the party. It ended with the bears overwhelming the bulls heading into the weekend. While those kinds of days look ugly on a chart, we need to see follow through selling early this week to have any significance. Below is the NASDAQ 100 which is dominated by all those popular tech names. Epic run since October. […]
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Date: March 11, 2024
Are You Affluent? Understanding How Heritage Capital Defines Wealth
When I speak with people about managing their money, it always surprises me how often they don’t believe they are affluent or considered “high-net-worth,” even if they have $500,000 or more of investable assets. Since this happens fairly often, I decided to write a blog based on the true definition of wealth because it means different things to different people. Determining wealth is a personal journey that goes far beyond mere numbers. It’s about matching your life goals and values […]
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Date: March 11, 2024
State of The Union & The Markets
It’s amazing how many people ask me about the election and the impact of politics on the markets. I think that’s because all we hear is how the other person is going to wreck the economy and crash the markets. As with most commonly held beliefs, it’s all pure nonsense. There is no correlation to any of this. No single president has ever nor ever will have that kind of impact. Last night was the State of the Union (SOTU). […]
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Date: March 8, 2024
Don’t Marry Stocks – You Will End in Divorce
As has been the theme all quarter we continue to prune and plant, reducing exposure in those areas that have essentially melted up and adding exposure in areas that have not. In other words, you could say that we have cut back on those handful of super sexy stocks and sectors and rebalanced into the rest of the market. Again, that is how you successfully manage portfolios for the long-term. Otherwise, your portfolio ends up severely overweighted in a small […]
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Date: March 6, 2024
Small Caps Beat The Bears – NYCB Did Not
The markets sure have been resilient. In the strongest of uptrends which this clearly is, all the bears get are 1-3 day pullbacks where they all wonder, “is this it, the top?” Last week, the S&P 500 had a very mild early week pullback along with the NASDAQ 100. By weeks end, they were at fresh all-time highs. At the same time the two aforementioned indices were slightly declining, the Russell 2000 index of small companies was going up. You […]
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Date: March 4, 2024
Inflation Versus High Prices
Happy Friday! Rather than a written blog today, I did a video on the most asked question of late regarding inflation versus high prices. Weekend is here and as far as the eye can see, Mother Nature is back to her unkind ways in New England. Cold, thaw, rain, warm, rinse and repeat. Of course, my buddies at Kirkwood are preparing for 120-150 inches of snow over the next 5 days. Now that is insane! On Wednesday we bought levered […]
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Date: March 1, 2024
