More Evidence of The Bottom
As you know the time and price targets for a bottom were met. The window for a bottom opened a few weeks ago and it’s hard to argue that a low has not been seen. The only push back the bears can offer is whether or not it was the bottom for Q4. The bears will say it wasn’t while the bulls will say it was. I added a third blue line to the very familiar chart below. It’s highest […]
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Date: October 16, 2023
Better Be Watching The Dollar
With Wednesday’s hotter than expected PPI, the market made it three straight negative news pieces that resulted in a higher stock market. On Thursday, we had a hotter Consumer Price Index (CPI) that ended the streak. While the CPI put a damper on prices it was really the results of the day’s Treasury auction that roiled markets, at least for a few hours. It was yet another auction with less enthusiasm than expected resulting in higher yields. The chart below […]
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Date: October 13, 2023
The Most Bullish Thing a Market Can Do
If you’re keeping score at home, I think we now have three straight pieces of negative news where the stock market reacted positively. First, last Friday’s employment report was very strong which means a more vigilant Fed. Stocks staged a massive reversal to the upside. Then we had the unspeakable Hamas invasion of Israel. Stocks opened sharply lower and closed higher. This morning, the Producer Price Index came in hotter than expected (higher inflation) and markets look to open higher. […]
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Date: October 11, 2023
Big Gains on Friday – Bell Ringing?
The horrific and barbaric events of the weekend in Israel by Hamas will certainly overshadow the markets’ short-term trends. I was surprised that Israel’s stock market did not close down more than the 7% it did on Sunday. Our market isn’t even indicating a give back of the big gains on Friday. And FYI, the bond market is closed for the federal holiday today. On Friday the government released employment data for September. Job growth was well beyond expectations, but […]
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Date: October 9, 2023
Confident Retirement Planning in 2024: Overcoming Market Uncertainties
In a climate of rising volatility and speculation about a looming recession in 2024, charting your path to retirement might feel like steering a ship through stormy waters. You’ve worked hard to accumulate a substantial retirement nest egg as a professional, business owner, or executive. Now, you need a comprehensive retirement plan to protect your wealth during your 30+ years of retirement and document how you want your assets distributed to family members. In the short run, you need a […]
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Date: October 9, 2023
Still Waiting For The Bottom to Line Up
Thank you to those who attended last night webinar where we discussed the events of Q3, reviewed performance of our strategies and took a sneak peak at Q4. The stock market surely is taking its time getting to wherever it is going. Both time and price windows are open, but the indices have calmed over the past few days. That’s not typically the behavior seen if the ultimate bottom was just hammered in. So, in all likelihood, there should be […]
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Date: October 6, 2023
Something Breaking in The Markets – Still in The Zone & Getting Closer
Tuesday was not a pretty day in the markets, but it was really just more of the same. Bonds collapsed which means yields rose. Stocks fell. The dollar rallied. Rinse and repeat since mid-July. I can’t say it has been fun without many intervening rallies, but it also has not been disastrous, at least not yet. Stocks and risk assets remain under pressure to state the obvious. Both time and price are and have been in my zone for a […]
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Date: October 4, 2023
New Week, Month & Quarter – Bulls Have The Edge to Start
Friday ended the week, month and quarter. And it was definitely a tale of two halves, much like Q1 with early strength and later weakness. And you already know that both time and have price have opened the window for a stock market bottom. If all goes according to plan, the low we see should create an opportunity for a rally into January and it could be significant. And by the way, for all those who were skeptical about my […]
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Date: October 2, 2023
Is “A” Bottom or “THE” Bottom? The Window is Open
Monday was the first time in a month where some signs popped up of at least a short-term rally beginning. The bears waited all of one day to squash that notion as Tuesday was another win for the bears. Wednesday looked even better than Monday in terms of the market groping for a little low. We shall see what happens today. The most beaten down, ugliest indices, small and mid caps, have been hanging in this week. Here is the […]
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Date: September 28, 2023
Window For a Bottom Opens – VIX Needs to Spike
After being off for Yom Kippur yesterday, it feels like a Monday today. Markets behaved poorly to end last week, but hung in okay on Monday against another spike in long-term interest rates. Stocks are under pressure in the pre-market today. They need to close in the upper half of their range today to indicate at least a very short-term rally has begun. As I discussed last week, the window for a stock market low is now open as the […]
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Date: September 26, 2023
