Retirement Amid 2024 Uncertainties: Planning Ahead with Confidence
2024 could be very challenging, with the potential for a recession during an election year. In other words, several uncertainties could increase market volatility. This uncertainty is compounded if you plan to retire in 2024 or recently retire. You may have a lot of questions or concerns about the future and what you can do to minimize certain risks: Should I retire in 2024? Have I saved enough for 30 years of retirement? How will market volatility affect my plans? […]
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Date: September 25, 2023
Pullback Accelerates
First, lets’ start off with the Fed model which was woefully wrong on Wednesday, calling for a post-2pm rally. When markets don’t do what they’re supposed to do, they often accelerate in the opposite direction which is what we saw on Thursday. The two-day decline was real, lopping 2-4% off of the major stock market indices. Below is the S&P 500. At the close it met my minimum downside target of breaching the August low. You can see the two […]
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Date: September 22, 2023
Fed Stands Pat – Stocks Should Rally
It’s Fed day and an uneventful one at that. Interest rates will not be going up today. That’s what everyone expects and what we will hear at 2pm. Before that the model says plus or minus 0.50% in the stock market and then the usual bigger moves after the Fed news breaks. With the recent weakness, the model says the bulls have the upper hand today. I also do not think the Fed will say anything about a pause for […]
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Date: September 20, 2023
Dreaming of Retirement? Here’s What $3 Million Can Get You
Let’s say you’ve tucked away $3 million for your retirement years in Hartford or New Haven, Connecticut. It might sound like a large amount, but in today’s world of economic uncertainty, inflation, and rising longevity, it’s important to know the real purchasing power of your savings. In this blog, we’ll explore how viable it is to retire with $3 million in savings and how you can effectively manage these assets with comprehensive retirement planning. Let’s dive in. 1. Retirement Spending […]
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Date: September 18, 2023
The Weakest Week of the Weakest Month Already in Pullback Mode
And so begins the weakest week of the weakest month of the year. In fact, for all of September’s ominous tones, you can attribute more than 100% of the negativity to this week. (hat tip to my friend Rob Hanna of Quantifiable Edges) Now, before you start thinking about crashes and collapses, let’s remember that we are talking about an average, not a certainty. And last Friday was down decently against the backdrop of the auto strike and one of […]
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Date: September 18, 2023
Risk Increasing – Important Time to Pay Attention
The stock market had a nice rally on Thursday. And price is getting closer to the upper line in the sand, 4555 or so where my thesis for another pullback would be more difficult. So far, the markets have done nothing wrong to negate further upside, but risk should begin to increase today. The next few weeks have a very negative seasonal headwind and there is major labor strike in the country. Interestingly, mega cap tech is not the sexy […]
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Date: September 15, 2023
CPI & Dollar Warm
Just a quick note today. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a bit hotter than forecast, but that’s what the data were pointing at. I have written that inflation was likely finding a floor in the mid 3% area and that some increase was coming. But remember, the economy and markets are in very different places than they were two plus years ago when the Fed was well behind the curve. Now, Powell & company seem to have gone […]
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Date: September 13, 2023
Bulls Not Convincing, Yet
9-11 is always a difficult day. Everyone seems to know someone who perished in that unspeakable, cowardly terrorist attack. I lost a childhood friend and a fraternity brother. Many or most years, I repeat my story that day. I just don’t have the mental energy today. I simply hope that no one ever forgets what happened. Stocks are in the midst of what I think will end up being a feeble bounce. Sure, I could be grossly wrong and the […]
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Date: September 11, 2023
Stock Market in a Vulnerable Position
The stock market is now in a vulnerable position. Vulnerable doesn’t mean crash or bear market or even a decline. It just means that the path of least resistance is lower, not today or any day, just in general. The S&P 500 as seen below is now caught between last week’s high and the August lows. For the vulnerable regime to pass, we want to see either price level exceeded on a daily closing basis. I will speculate and say […]
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Date: September 8, 2023
Challenges of Residential Real Estate
Greetings from 36,000 feet as I make a quick trip to Florida to visit clients and a few new prospective clients. As I sit here my thinking on the markets is not any different from what I have been writing about so I decided to pivot to a totally different topic, interest rates. I am always interested in your feedback, positive or negative, so feel free to share. The worst kept secret of all-time is that interest rates have soared […]
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Date: September 6, 2023
