Hawkish Pause From The Fed? Market Not In Great Shape
The model for today’s Fed day is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. A high probability long trade was setting up nicely until yesterday’s rally. Now it’s just a coin flip. Jay Powell and the FOMC will take no action today although he may offer a hawkish pause where rates stay the same but his rhetoric is hawkish. The 2-Year Note currently sits at 4.21% with the Fed Funds Rate at 4.33%. That is as neutral […]
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Date: January 29, 2025
All-Time High S&P 500 – Is It The Selling Opp I Forecast?
Welcome back to a new week. I rooted for the Commanders. They lost. I rooted harder for the Bills. They lost. I hate the Eagles and the Chiefs. I rooted for the UCONN men. They lost. And I was so looking forward to visiting clients in Florida today where it will be 80 degrees. I think I have the flu and I canceled my trip. It’s okay. I can handle all the adversity! On Friday the S&P 500 hit fresh, […]
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Date: January 27, 2025
Fearless Forecast 2025 – Part II Calm Before The Storm
Finishing up the equities portion of the 2025 Fearless Forecast, let’s turn to sectors. Last year, I said that technology would not lead again, but also would not lag. And it finished in the middle. I liked financials, healthcare, biotechnology, energy and REITs. While financials led the market, the other sector picks lagged. For 2025, I see the same impact by tech. And I am going back to the well with biotech, energy and healthcare plus regional banks and retail […]
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Date: January 24, 2025
S&P 500 Poised For New Highs
Price-wise, the bulls had another good day on Friday with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 leading the way to sizable gains. It was a strong five days for the bulls coming off meeting my minimum downside target last Monday. To poke holes, after the open, price didn’t do anything. It just meandered about most of the day. And there were only 600 more stocks going than down on a solid rally. That number should have been higher. Let’s also […]
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Date: January 21, 2025
Fearless Forecast 2025 – The Year Momentum Died
I have been publishing my Fearless Forecast for more than 30 years. I don’t know many or really any other advisor that sticks their neck out like this year in and year out. That’s one of the many reasons why we are different. I love producing original content, especially when it flies in the face of consensus or conventional wisdom. Our industry has a lot of lazy people. I don’t know how individual investors tolerate and accept the regurgitation of […]
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Date: January 20, 2025
So Far So Good For The Bulls
Since my minimum downside target was met on Monday the bulls’ response has been solid across the major stock market indices. All have rallied smartly. Below are the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. While the former looks to be in better shape than the latter, the Russell has more upside potential simply because it sold off the most. Several things still bother me. Sentiment never fully cycled to bearish although market internals did. I don’t love the leadership set up […]
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Date: January 17, 2025
Minimum Downside Met – Banks Teed Up Into Earnings
The S&P 500 met my minimum downside target for a low because it breached the December lows and closed below them as well. However, that doesn’t mean the bottom is in for sure. We just have to watch and see how the market behaves. This is not one of those bell-ringing, close your eyes and buy situation. I think that happens either later this quarter or later this year. In the chart below of the S&P 500 you can see […]
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Date: January 15, 2025
7 Retirement Dos and Don’ts for High-Net-Worth Individuals
We at Heritage Capital assist high-net-worth individuals in navigating the increasingly complex issues of retirement. Whether crafting a multigenerational wealth strategy or aligning investments with retirement goals, we tailor our services to fit your special needs. Our goal is to help you pursue financial independence while preserving and growing your wealth. Our team, led by Paul Schatz, holder of the Accredited Investment Fiduciary (AIF®) Designation, is dedicated to providing you with the best strategies for retirement planning. Based in Woodbridge, […]
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Date: January 13, 2025
Stocks Break Down – Plenty Of Reasons To Support Bull Market
After the economy created 100,000 more jobs than expected, stocks and bonds decided that was bad news and promptly sold off. Makes sense, right? No, it really doesn’t although as I wrote about on Friday it is because the perception is now less help from the Fed. I have also been waiting to see if stocks poked to new highs first and then we could sell or if they fell below December’s low which would hasten a buying opportunity. The […]
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Date: January 12, 2025
New Jobs Soar – Markets May Not Like That
The government released the December employment report this morning. Surprisingly, the economy created 100,000 more new jobs than economists forecast. This is great news on the surface that the economy continues to hum along. It also speaks volumes to the lack of forecasting ability by economists with this very volatile monthly number. Here’s the problem. The current market regime is that good news is bad news because the Fed will provide less accommodation through lower rates. So while the economy […]
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Date: January 11, 2025
