Seasonally Positive Tailwind Against Middle East Escalation
Happy tax day (said with sarcasm)! The stock market has been seasonally strong on tax day as well as the day after. First, the middle of the month typically sees inflows from 401K and other retirement plans. Add on top of that the billions in last minute IRA contributions and you have a nice tailwind for two days. I think the best way to play that is to buy weakness. If stocks up higher and continue to run, I would […]
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Date: April 15, 2024
The Price of Loyalty: When to Rethink Your Financial Advisor
Loyalty is a valued trait in many aspects of life, but an unquestioned allegiance to particular financial advisors may be a costly mistake. Why? This advisor will influence or control your financial decisions that can impact when and how you live during retirement. It is important to make the right decisions. It can also be very costly if you select the wrong financial advisor. Consider this: The most expensive commodity on earth is bad financial advice. We meet with people […]
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Date: April 15, 2024
Stock Market Pullback Proceeding on Schedule – Gold, Apple & Nvidia
Since the March 27th peak, we have seen a few mild pullbacks in the major stock market indices. That March high although late in the quarter is precisely what our work had been suggesting since the year began. As usual, they didn’t make it easy. I remain of the opinion that it was not a peak of significance. Rather, the market would embark on a one to two month decline that would be less than 10% and bottom by Memorial […]
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Date: April 12, 2024
All Eyes on CPI But Does It Matter?
With the Consumer Price Index due out at 8:30am, that is almost guaranteed to be the talk of the day. As I have been mentioning all year, my thesis is that inflation remains stubbornly elevated with 3% being the new 2%. I have been writing about inflation bottoming and the last few months have certainly proven that. I don’t have strong conviction about this one single number. When I look at the yield on the 10-Year Treasury, it broke out […]
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Date: April 10, 2024
Another Strong Employment Report Confounds The Bears
On Friday, the March jobs report showed 303,000 new jobs created which was well above expectations of 202,000 once again. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% while wages increased 4.1% over the past 12 months. The Goldilocks economy with elevated inflation continues to defy the odds and critics. One by one almost every single tried and true predictor of recession has flashed since 2021 with varying lead times until the economy shrinks. But someone forgot to tell the economy to […]
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Date: April 8, 2024
Who Turned The Lights Out?
Greetings from the Valley of the Sun where my daughter and I are hoping the UCONN men can win their second straight national championship. My body got a shock as the temp at the hotel was 90 at the same time as another major winter storm hit Vermont with another 18 inches of snow. Catching up with a childhood friend and her husband is one of the unintended benefits. As I flew to Phoenix I watched as early morning strength […]
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Date: April 5, 2024
Two-Day Decline – No One Cares
Two down days in the stock market, but it certainly didn’t feel like folks cared much as stocks closed near their high for the day on Tuesday. And the down days were barely noticeable on a chart. Here are the charts of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. As you know I have been looking for a Q1 peak followed by a less than 10% decline that wraps up by Memorial Day. We will see if that March peak holds […]
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Date: April 3, 2024
New Week, Month and Quarter Begin – Back to Narrowness
As expected, Thursday was a very quiet day in the markets ahead of the long holiday weekend as well as closing out March and Q1. The government released its monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report which is a favorite of the Fed and it showed inflation came in as expected, up 0.3% for the month and 2% for the trailing 12 months. Early last week, I discussed how the week had a strong seasonal tendency to the upside. The S&P […]
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Date: April 1, 2024
The Masses Said Small Caps Were Death & Going To Spiral Lower
Today is the last day of the week, month and quarter as markets are closed in observance of Good Friday. March and Q1 definitely flew by! As a reminder I will be conducting my quarterly webinar on Wednesday at 7:30pm where I review the events of Q1, discuss our strategies and their performance as well as take a sneak peak into what is ahead in Q2. Markets remain very quiet with low volatility. I don’t know why they do this, […]
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Date: March 28, 2024
Volatility Is Depressed But It Should Be
My publishing schedule is a bit off this week and I am not sure when I will publish the rest of the week. My apologies. This week is seasonally strong. Historically, there is an 85%+ chance that the week is up. Those are fairly good odds, but very hard to trade in a vacuum. I am glad our models covered our short trade and increased exposure to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 into the down day on Monday. Volatility […]
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Date: March 26, 2024
