Big Gains on Friday – Bell Ringing?
The horrific and barbaric events of the weekend in Israel by Hamas will certainly overshadow the markets’ short-term trends. I was surprised that Israel’s stock market did not close down more than the 7% it did on Sunday. Our market isn’t even indicating a give back of the big gains on Friday. And FYI, the bond market is closed for the federal holiday today. On Friday the government released employment data for September. Job growth was well beyond expectations, but […]
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Date: October 9, 2023
Confident Retirement Planning in 2024: Overcoming Market Uncertainties
In a climate of rising volatility and speculation about a looming recession in 2024, charting your path to retirement might feel like steering a ship through stormy waters. You’ve worked hard to accumulate a substantial retirement nest egg as a professional, business owner, or executive. Now, you need a comprehensive retirement plan to protect your wealth during your 30+ years of retirement and document how you want your assets distributed to family members. In the short run, you need a […]
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Date: October 9, 2023
Still Waiting For The Bottom to Line Up
Thank you to those who attended last night webinar where we discussed the events of Q3, reviewed performance of our strategies and took a sneak peak at Q4. The stock market surely is taking its time getting to wherever it is going. Both time and price windows are open, but the indices have calmed over the past few days. That’s not typically the behavior seen if the ultimate bottom was just hammered in. So, in all likelihood, there should be […]
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Date: October 6, 2023
Something Breaking in The Markets – Still in The Zone & Getting Closer
Tuesday was not a pretty day in the markets, but it was really just more of the same. Bonds collapsed which means yields rose. Stocks fell. The dollar rallied. Rinse and repeat since mid-July. I can’t say it has been fun without many intervening rallies, but it also has not been disastrous, at least not yet. Stocks and risk assets remain under pressure to state the obvious. Both time and price are and have been in my zone for a […]
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Date: October 4, 2023
New Week, Month & Quarter – Bulls Have The Edge to Start
Friday ended the week, month and quarter. And it was definitely a tale of two halves, much like Q1 with early strength and later weakness. And you already know that both time and have price have opened the window for a stock market bottom. If all goes according to plan, the low we see should create an opportunity for a rally into January and it could be significant. And by the way, for all those who were skeptical about my […]
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Date: October 2, 2023
Is “A” Bottom or “THE” Bottom? The Window is Open
Monday was the first time in a month where some signs popped up of at least a short-term rally beginning. The bears waited all of one day to squash that notion as Tuesday was another win for the bears. Wednesday looked even better than Monday in terms of the market groping for a little low. We shall see what happens today. The most beaten down, ugliest indices, small and mid caps, have been hanging in this week. Here is the […]
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Date: September 28, 2023
Window For a Bottom Opens – VIX Needs to Spike
After being off for Yom Kippur yesterday, it feels like a Monday today. Markets behaved poorly to end last week, but hung in okay on Monday against another spike in long-term interest rates. Stocks are under pressure in the pre-market today. They need to close in the upper half of their range today to indicate at least a very short-term rally has begun. As I discussed last week, the window for a stock market low is now open as the […]
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Date: September 26, 2023
Retirement Amid 2024 Uncertainties: Planning Ahead with Confidence
2024 could be very challenging, with the potential for a recession during an election year. In other words, several uncertainties could increase market volatility. This uncertainty is compounded if you plan to retire in 2024 or recently retire. You may have a lot of questions or concerns about the future and what you can do to minimize certain risks: Should I retire in 2024? Have I saved enough for 30 years of retirement? How will market volatility affect my plans? […]
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Date: September 25, 2023
Pullback Accelerates
First, lets’ start off with the Fed model which was woefully wrong on Wednesday, calling for a post-2pm rally. When markets don’t do what they’re supposed to do, they often accelerate in the opposite direction which is what we saw on Thursday. The two-day decline was real, lopping 2-4% off of the major stock market indices. Below is the S&P 500. At the close it met my minimum downside target of breaching the August low. You can see the two […]
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Date: September 22, 2023
Fed Stands Pat – Stocks Should Rally
It’s Fed day and an uneventful one at that. Interest rates will not be going up today. That’s what everyone expects and what we will hear at 2pm. Before that the model says plus or minus 0.50% in the stock market and then the usual bigger moves after the Fed news breaks. With the recent weakness, the model says the bulls have the upper hand today. I also do not think the Fed will say anything about a pause for […]
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Date: September 20, 2023
