State of The Union & The Markets
It’s amazing how many people ask me about the election and the impact of politics on the markets. I think that’s because all we hear is how the other person is going to wreck the economy and crash the markets. As with most commonly held beliefs, it’s all pure nonsense. There is no correlation to any of this. No single president has ever nor ever will have that kind of impact. Last night was the State of the Union (SOTU). […]
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Date: March 8, 2024
Don’t Marry Stocks – You Will End in Divorce
As has been the theme all quarter we continue to prune and plant, reducing exposure in those areas that have essentially melted up and adding exposure in areas that have not. In other words, you could say that we have cut back on those handful of super sexy stocks and sectors and rebalanced into the rest of the market. Again, that is how you successfully manage portfolios for the long-term. Otherwise, your portfolio ends up severely overweighted in a small […]
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Date: March 6, 2024
Small Caps Beat The Bears – NYCB Did Not
The markets sure have been resilient. In the strongest of uptrends which this clearly is, all the bears get are 1-3 day pullbacks where they all wonder, “is this it, the top?” Last week, the S&P 500 had a very mild early week pullback along with the NASDAQ 100. By weeks end, they were at fresh all-time highs. At the same time the two aforementioned indices were slightly declining, the Russell 2000 index of small companies was going up. You […]
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Date: March 4, 2024
Inflation Versus High Prices
Happy Friday! Rather than a written blog today, I did a video on the most asked question of late regarding inflation versus high prices. Weekend is here and as far as the eye can see, Mother Nature is back to her unkind ways in New England. Cold, thaw, rain, warm, rinse and repeat. Of course, my buddies at Kirkwood are preparing for 120-150 inches of snow over the next 5 days. Now that is insane! On Wednesday we bought levered […]
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Date: March 1, 2024
Complacency Rises – People Getting Giddy, Cocky & Greedy
The markets sure have gone quiet or so it seems. Let’s take a look at the Volatility Index (VIX) below. While stocks have marched steadily higher since the October bottom, the VIX tells a slightly different story as it fell into December and then mildly rallied since. I would have expected the VIX to be below 12. Does that matter? Not really, especially not in the short-term. It is just telling us that the options trades are expecting a bit […]
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Date: February 28, 2024
Ducks Are Quacking – Sexy & Exciting Out, Boring & Stodgy In
The ducks were quacking last week, but especially on Thursday and Friday. For newer readers, that means investors were hungry for stocks. Those same people ridiculed and scorned me in Q4 2022 when I pounded the table about a new bull market launching. They laughed at my 2023 forecast labeled “The Year of the Bull”. Today, they can’t buy enough stocks. They want Nvidia and Super Micro and Microsoft. Well, folks, they can have them. Over the past week we […]
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Date: February 26, 2024
Will Your Nest Egg Survive Retirement? Answers For Your Top Concerns!
Back in the day, it was standard practice to work until 65 and, in theory, be relegated to a rocking chair or recliner for the remainder of your years. The good news is that retirement today differs significantly from what it used to be for our parents and grandparents. In modern times, retirement takes on a whole new meaning as people are much more healthy and active and want to experience more of what life offers once they stop working […]
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Date: February 26, 2024
Nvidia Delivers (Sell) – Weird Behavior Follows – Pay Attention
Thursday was definitely a weird day in the markets. And I am not talking about Nvidia which is all the rage. Heading into its earnings I wrote that the stock was a buy on Wednesday as it should pop on the news.While I usually do not flip stocks that quickly, the stock is now a sell on the news and overreaction. Stock market action on Thursday was strange and not exactly in a good way. We did a fair amount […]
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Date: February 23, 2024
Nvidia, Nvidia, Nvidia, Apple and Fox Business
First, I am very excited to join my friend and the most dapper man on TV, Charles Payne, on Fox Business’ Making Money likely between 2:05pm and 2:30pm today. I am old enough to remember when the stock market was obsessed with GE’s earnings. It was a huge market mover. Everyone opined. Networks lined up to have CEO Jack Welch join them. Then GE fell out of favor. The market then became obsessed with Apple’s earnings. Everyone followed the stock. […]
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Date: February 21, 2024
Figuring Out The Transports And Avoiding The Rust
They’re not making it easy. But do they ever? Yes, they do. Who is “they”? I’m not really sure, but I seem to use the pronoun a lot. Let me give you an example of one thing that confused me lately. Look at the two charts below. The first one is the Dow Jones Transportation Index which is made up of thing like airlines, rails, truckers and shippers. It is nowhere near its August 2023 peak which is concerning. Now […]
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Date: February 17, 2024
