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Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital

Tariffs Creating Investor Anxiety

Tariffs on. Tariffs off. I sense this to be a theme going forward. The longer this lasts and the more times it happens, the more the markets will price in the outcome, whatever that may be. You already know my feelings about tariffs and protectionism. I won’t rehash that everyday. In my 2025 Fearless Forecast I wrote that one of my themes was that 2025 will fell worse than it actually is. Look at the S&P 500 below. It’s really […]   Read More
Date: February 5, 2025

DeepSeek Last Monday – Tariffs Today

Tariffs will dominate the news this week as President Trump followed through on his threats against China, Canada and Mexico. I have long been against tariffs as an economic tool and I remain that way. No country can tariff its way to prosperity. No one wins a trade war. There are only losers. Yes. I fully understand that other countries do not play by the rules. But I am a free trader. I seek trade deals  not protectionism. For the […]   Read More
Date: February 3, 2025

Secure Your Golden Years: How to Effectively Plan Your Retirement in Connecticut with an AIF®

Retiring in Connecticut can be rewarding, but retirees face financial challenges. At Heritage Capital, located in Woodbridge, Connecticut, we specialize in personalized, tax-savvy strategies that help retirees protect their golden years.  The AIF® designation held by Founder and President Paul Schatz further exemplifies our commitment to the highest standards of fiduciary responsibility, ensuring that we always put your interests first. Local expertise guarantees that we address the challenges and opportunities unique to retiring in Connecticut. The Retirement Landscape in Connecticut […]   Read More
Date: February 3, 2025

Not A Market To Chase

Since Monday’s plunge the stock market has recovered “nicely”. However, the S&P 500 hasn’t gone anywhere in two months. The NASDAQ 100 either. Lots of chop in a trading range which is pretty much what I laid out in my 2025 Fearless Forecast, the year momentum died. Up, down, sideways, lots of frustration. I see it in our models. Some are full bore exposed at 200% and 300%. Others have very low exposure. And they’re moving all the time. It’s […]   Read More
Date: January 31, 2025

Hawkish Pause From The Fed? Market Not In Great Shape

The model for today’s Fed day is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. A high probability long trade was setting up nicely until yesterday’s rally. Now it’s just a coin flip. Jay Powell and the FOMC will take no action today although he may offer a hawkish pause where rates stay the same but his rhetoric is hawkish. The 2-Year Note currently sits at 4.21% with the Fed Funds Rate at 4.33%. That is as neutral […]   Read More
Date: January 29, 2025

All-Time High S&P 500 – Is It The Selling Opp I Forecast?

Welcome back to a new week. I rooted for the Commanders. They lost. I rooted harder for the Bills. They lost. I hate the Eagles and the Chiefs. I rooted for the UCONN men. They lost. And I was so looking forward to visiting clients in Florida today where it will be 80 degrees. I think I have the flu and I canceled my trip. It’s okay. I can handle all the adversity! On Friday the S&P 500 hit fresh, […]   Read More
Date: January 27, 2025

Fearless Forecast 2025 – Part II Calm Before The Storm

Finishing up the equities portion of the 2025 Fearless Forecast, let’s turn to sectors. Last year, I said that technology would not lead again, but also would not lag. And it finished in the middle. I liked financials, healthcare, biotechnology, energy and REITs. While financials led the market, the other sector picks lagged. For 2025, I see the same impact by tech. And I am going back to the well with biotech, energy and healthcare plus regional banks and retail […]   Read More
Date: January 24, 2025

S&P 500 Poised For New Highs

Price-wise, the bulls had another good day on Friday with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 leading the way to sizable gains. It was a strong five days for the bulls coming off meeting my minimum downside target last Monday. To poke holes, after the open, price didn’t do anything. It just meandered about most of the day. And there were only 600 more stocks going than down on a solid rally. That number should have been higher. Let’s also […]   Read More
Date: January 21, 2025

Fearless Forecast 2025 – The Year Momentum Died

I have been publishing my Fearless Forecast for more than 30 years. I don’t know many or really any other advisor that sticks their neck out like this year in and year out. That’s one of the many reasons why we are different. I love producing original content, especially when it flies in the face of consensus or conventional wisdom. Our industry has a lot of lazy people. I don’t know how individual investors tolerate and accept the regurgitation of […]   Read More
Date: January 20, 2025

So Far So Good For The Bulls

Since my minimum downside target was met on Monday the bulls’ response has been solid across the major stock market indices. All have rallied smartly. Below are the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. While the former looks to be in better shape than the latter, the Russell has more upside potential simply because it sold off the most. Several things still bother me. Sentiment never fully cycled to bearish although market internals did. I don’t love the leadership set up […]   Read More
Date: January 17, 2025