Wanna Know Who Will Win The Election?
The election is 11 days away and I will likely be commenting on it in each blog until then. As you know, my thesis has always been that elections absolutely do not matter for the markets nor economy until we get to November. All year long, all this posturing and fear mongering has been absurd and annoying. These pundits with Harris and Trump portfolios. They know not of what they speak. 100 years of data suggest that’s it’s all a […]
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Date: October 25, 2024
Volatility Stubbornly High – Proven Wrong Quickly
By the slightest margin, stocks closed for the second day in a row, breaking a 30+ day streak. Does that really matter? I don’t think so. Seasonals are weak this week, but nothing powerful. It has been a real nothing burger this month which probably means something will come out of the blue. Retreading an old topic, the Volatility Index (VIX) is below. With stocks at new highs, the VIX should not even be a teenager, let alone stubbornly close […]
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Date: October 23, 2024
When Paid Actors Tell You The Market Can’t Go Down
The markets open the week with a range of all-time highs. Furthermore, lots of folks shared that the stock market hasn’t had back to back down days in more than 30 days. That is the epitome of strong momentum and buying every dip. Since the mini-crash on August 5th, there have been only two decent down days. I think that’s going to change this week. This rally has flown in the face of seasonal factors which argued for weakness in […]
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Date: October 21, 2024
How Active Management Helps With Social Security and Market Volatility
While Social Security can be an important source of income, it often falls short of covering all expenses—especially with rising taxes and inflation. For many high-net-worth individuals, relying on investments to make up the difference can be stressful with increasing market volatility. Active management offers a solution by helping protect your investments from market swings while pursuing growth opportunities, thereby creating a more stable approach to retirement planning. At Heritage Capital, we specialize in active investment management and strategies for […]
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Date: October 21, 2024
Slow Grind Higher, Bonds Trying, Crude Not So Much
Happy Friday! No matter how many times people argue with me, I am not changing my position. The election has almost no bearing on the markets nor economy until at least Halloween, if at all until the big day. Sorry not sorry. Data bear that out. Many of you know that we run a purely quantitative election model based on market performance over three time periods as well as recent economic data. The model has correctly predicted every election since […]
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Date: October 18, 2024
Canary In The Coal Mine – What’s Up With Semis?
The stock market encountered its first real shot across the bow on Tuesday when international semiconductor stock, ASML, surprised with a revenue warning during trading hours. No one needs any training in finance to figure out where the announcement occurred on the chart below. The action was swift and punishing. The question is whether this is idiosyncratic or industry wide. As many of you know except for a brief period starting with the mini-crash on August 5th, we have shied […]
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Date: October 16, 2024
Small & Mid Cap Stocks Leading
On Friday the “other” stocks rallied and in a big way. Last week I wrote about the strong opportunity in mid and small caps. Both indices were large and in charge on Friday. That continues the quiet trend I have written about since the end of Q2. Let’s take a look at the NASDAQ 100 relative to the Russell 2000 and then the S&P 400. The chart below is one divided by the other. When the line is going up, […]
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Date: October 14, 2024
The High-Net-Worth Playbook: Changing Financial Advisors With Confidence
Do you feel like your financial advisor isn’t as engaged or transparent as you’d like? Whether it’s a lack of communication, poor performance, or high fees that don’t seem justified, maybe you’ve reached a point where you realize it’s time for a change. Switching financial advisors can feel like a disruption, especially if you’ve worked with the same person for years. You might even worry that changing your advisor feels disloyal. But your financial future—and your family’s—comes first. It’s important […]
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Date: October 14, 2024
Market Still Poised To Move Higher
Another earnings season starts today as JP Morgan and Wells Fargo are out of the gate first. We have owned the former in our Unloved Gems strategy since inception in 2018 and I don’t think we’ve ever owned the latter. As I wrote the other day, stocks still seem poised to move higher. Both inflation gauges released this week were cool and that should help a breakout to the upside. I think small and mid caps stock look the most […]
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Date: October 11, 2024
Price Poised For Upside – Not All Is Strong
My good friend, Helene Meisler, who is a great read on Twitter noticed last week that the stock market has had a pattern of up, down, up, down for many days. Each day she wrote about it, I thought she was jinxing it and it would end. I think it’s now 11 straight days of this pattern and I am sure it will end today. Why? Because I decided to mention it. Week two of October has historically been down […]
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Date: October 9, 2024
