Tariffs, DOGE and The REAL Reason Why The Markets Are Cranky On Wednesday we bought EWS, ITB and more FDN. We sold EIS, XLB and some FXI. On Thursday we sold PCY, EMB, some GDX and some XMMO.
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While many events took place in Q4, none were more important nor high profile than the election. And certainly, we haven’t seen an election more anticipated than this past one. And I hope we don’t ever again although I know that is unlikely. Recall that coming into the election I offered that the single best outcome for your money and the markets was shared power, meaning neither party swept. That would force a number of grand bargains without a single […]
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The S&P 500 is now down 6% on a closing basis and the NASDAQ 100 is down 8%. The opportunity I just wrote about on Monday evaporated quickly that day and we took action in both directions as I wasn’t willing to let small losses turn into large ones on new positions. The magnitude of this pullback is stretching what I expected if this decline was to be the appetizer for the 7-9 week, 10%+ correction I saw coming in […]
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As you know my working thesis has been that the recent mid-single digit pullback is not the 10%+ correction I forecast for 2025. Rather, I thought the Q1 pullback would lead to another rally, new highs or not, that would be followed by the bigger decline. The bulls stepped up in a big way on Friday as they pushed the markets much higher into the week’s and quarter’s end. Sentiment continues to become less bullish which is good for stocks. […]
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It only took two days to know if what we saw on Tuesday was a low or the bottom. Frankly, it really can’t count as either. Since the S&P 500’s all-time high last Wednesday, every single day has seen stocks close lower than where they opened. You can see this in red on the right side of the chart. And most days, they have closed near the low of the day. No one can argue that someone or something has […]
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I am surprised at how many questions I received regarding whether the current stock market pullback was the 10%+ correction I called for this year. I need to do a better job articulating my thoughts here. The short answer is I don’t think so, but as we know, the markets don’t care what I think or want. My thesis has always been for an initial decline in Q1 and then a rally which could be to new highs again before […]
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Friday was an ugly day for the bulls and one that caught me a little off guard, just two days removed from a fresh high in the S&P 500. However, in the grand scheme of things, Friday was very much in line with how I have been thinking this year. Wednesday’s new high wasn’t confirmed by much else. It was more of an island of strength that got washed over sooner than later. It was a typical “risk off” day […]
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My title for 2025 has been, The Year Momentum Died. I argued that buying and selling strength was going to be the most rewarding strategy. Well friends, that epitomizes what we are and have been seeing. Wednesday saw the S&P 500 finally breakout to the upside and get people a little more excited. I was hoping for a 1-2% spurt to perhaps do some selling and risk reduction. But the bulls couldn’t muster any momentum. They just kinda died. And […]
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As you know I have been waiting, patiently and not so patiently, for the stock market to print fresh, all-time highs. I thought we could see a quick 1-2% spurt higher that would be more of a selling opportunity than a momentum train higher. So what happened when the S&P 500 as shown below got to the old highs? It drifted quietly back to where it began the day. I would like to see the index close above 6130 this […]
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It didn’t feel easy, but the S&P 500 got back to the old highs on Thursday and within a whisker of closing at fresh, all-time highs. It looks like there should be more upside coming with a possible 1-2% spurt higher. Interestingly, the market has ignored the constant barrage of tariffs and DeepSeek and DOGE. Remember what I write. It’s not what the news is, but how markets react. Markets will do what they want, especially when the news doesn’t […]
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