Inflation Soars At The Producer Level – Stocks & Bonds Don’t Crash
While inflation at the consumer level was tame in July, it soared at the producer level to numbers not seen since 2022. Pundits and the media had exaggerated initial reactions with all kinds of narratives being spun. I was suspicious. That kind of spike did not add up for me. While I have been saying that a warmer month or two was to be expected, July was hot. I also wanted to see how bad the markets reacted. With that […]
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Date: August 15, 2025
Volatility Nice, Markets Solid, Inflation Tame
I guess the dog days of summer have firmly set in for the markets. It wasn’t long ago when volatility as measured by the VIX was at historic extremes above 60. It’s been in the teens for most of the summer and heading lower. VIX below 20 is a relatively easy environment to invest in when compared to the 30s, 40s, 50s and higher. However, never forget that high volatility almost always leads to lower volatility and vice versa. It’s […]
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Date: August 12, 2025
Lots Of Opps Building
After the two-day reversal and pullback, stocks have bounced, getting close to the area where they should fail if they are going to fail. I still think the lows from last week will be exceeded this quarter, but like everything else, I will not die on that hill. The other day I posted a chart of stock making new 52-week lows to see how much deterioration was under the surface. Someone asked about stocks making new highs. Here it is […]
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Date: August 8, 2025
Looking For More Downside
The major stock market indices saw sharp reversals last Thursday. And there was a whole single day of follow through on Friday. So far, that’s been it. We are currently seeing a bounce from that little pullback. I still think there should be more downside this quarter, but I am certainly not going to die on that hill. In a perfect world, the bounce ends this week and then we see a move below last week’s low. Looking at the […]
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Date: August 6, 2025
Menagerie Of News To End Last Week
***NOTE: I thought this was sent out on Monday morning. It turns out that the blog’s platform crashed and I didn’t know until today. Lots happened last week, especially to end the week. I am happy to have finished my Q2 report to clients and then enjoyed some golf time in Scotland with 7 friends playing the best the country has to offer. My travel mates and the wait staff thought I was unusual when I broke out my laptop […]
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Date: August 5, 2025
***Q2 Client Update***
The second quarter of 2025 was one of those rare and very interesting periods on more than one front. However, the quarter really played out as the first few weeks of April and then the rest of the quarter. The world came into Q2 acutely focused on what President Trump deemed “Liberation Day”, that day when the administration’s trade policy was going to free the U.S. from its dependence on much of its international trade as well as level the […]
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Date: August 1, 2025
Is Healthcare Inflation Threatening Your Retirement Plan?
Rising healthcare costs are forcing many high-net-worth individuals to reevaluate their retirement plan strategies. Even if you have $500,000 or more in investable assets, you may wonder: Will healthcare eat away at the retirement assets I’ve worked so hard to accumulate? One of the biggest threats today is the growing and often underestimated cost of healthcare in retirement, particularly in the latter years when there is a possibility for Assisted Living, Skilled Nursing, or Memory Care. In this article, we’ll […]
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Date: July 31, 2025
How Recent Tax Changes Impact Your Wealth in Connecticut
If you have $500,000 or more in investable assets, the recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) may have more impact on your financial future than you realize. While many headlines focus on broader tax cuts and spending reforms, the fine print includes several provisions directly impacting high-net-worth individuals, especially those approaching or are already in retirement. From expanded retiree deductions and adjustments to the SALT cap to enhanced estate tax thresholds and shifting income phaseouts, the OBBB brings both […]
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Date: July 29, 2025
A Pullback Will Come
Stocks continue to creep higher as I discussed the other day. We have the Fed meeting today and tomorrow with the announcement of no rate cut on Wednesday at 2pm. However, the markets will be looking for signs that a cut is coming this fall. We are also the heart of Q2 earnings season and the stock market has been unusually quiet. The mega tech companies are on deck and they usually provide some fireworks. The stock market looks a […]
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Date: July 29, 2025
Stocks Grind Higher As Sentiment Becomes Giddy & Greedy
The stock market has morphed into what I like to call a “grinder” or “creeper” market, meaning that stocks just grind or creep higher without any pullbacks of more than 1% or so. This behavior is usually seen during the second leg of a new bull market rally after the masses did widespread selling at or near the bottom, followed by a vicious initial leg of the rally where the majority believes it is just a bounce with more selling […]
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Date: July 25, 2025
