Market fluctuations can often make you feel like you’re at the mercy of Wall Street, but it doesn’t have to be that way. Unless you have a crystal ball (mine broke 50 years ago), you can’t accurately predict every little market swing (for sure, Wall Street cannot) during periods of market volatility. You should be reminding yourself to focus on “controlling the controllables.” In other words, concentrate on aspects of your wealth you can manage, like making smart, data-driven decisions […]
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Stocks staged another wicked reversal on Thursday after opening sharply lower on Facebook’s poor earnings report as well as Q1 GDP coming in much lighter than expected with still sticky inflation. More than whispers of 1970s style stagflation are making the rounds. Recall that stagflation is stubbornly high inflation with essentially no economic growth. It puts the Fed in a box as they can’t cut rates to spur on the economy and it’s tough to hike too much for fear […]
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The stock market bounced pretty much on schedule and looks higher this morning. I suspect the initial rally may pause in here and some pruning could be in the cards. While it’s not my preferred scenario, I guess it’s possible that stocks bottomed already, but I still think the absolute low lies ahead next month, even if it’s just at marginally lower levels. Some very high profile earnings are coming out this week with Tesla reporting some pretty awful news […]
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Friday was another down day on the ugly side with the S&P 500 down 1% and the NASDAQ 100 was down 2%. However, the Russell 2000 was up and there were 1000 more stocks going up than down on the NYSE. For a change, the generals were weak, but the troops were strong. Keep that tidbit under your hat and don’t toss it aside. The new week starts with all of the major stock market indices oversold on a short-term […]
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It has been a heavy week in the stock market, especially in the NASDAQ 100. Every early rally has been met with selling and I have found very few things that are appealing enough to buy. On the flip side, because there hasn’t been any intervening rallies, not many things have looked appealing enough to sell. Below is a culprit, long-term interest rates. I will say this and be crystal clear. The bulls absolutely do not want to see the […]
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Monday saw the largest down day since the stock market peaked last month. There was widespread selling with 90% of the volume in stocks going down versus up. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 with the 90% volume below. Over the past 6 months, we have seen two instances like this with stocks bouncing and then pulling back before heading to new highs again. Further supporting my thesis is the chart below. At the recent peak there were […]
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Happy tax day (said with sarcasm)! The stock market has been seasonally strong on tax day as well as the day after. First, the middle of the month typically sees inflows from 401K and other retirement plans. Add on top of that the billions in last minute IRA contributions and you have a nice tailwind for two days. I think the best way to play that is to buy weakness. If stocks up higher and continue to run, I would […]
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Loyalty is a valued trait in many aspects of life, but an unquestioned allegiance to particular financial advisors may be a costly mistake. Why? This advisor will influence or control your financial decisions that can impact when and how you live during retirement. It is important to make the right decisions. It can also be very costly if you select the wrong financial advisor. Consider this: The most expensive commodity on earth is bad financial advice. We meet with people […]
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Since the March 27th peak, we have seen a few mild pullbacks in the major stock market indices. That March high although late in the quarter is precisely what our work had been suggesting since the year began. As usual, they didn’t make it easy. I remain of the opinion that it was not a peak of significance. Rather, the market would embark on a one to two month decline that would be less than 10% and bottom by Memorial […]
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With the Consumer Price Index due out at 8:30am, that is almost guaranteed to be the talk of the day. As I have been mentioning all year, my thesis is that inflation remains stubbornly elevated with 3% being the new 2%. I have been writing about inflation bottoming and the last few months have certainly proven that. I don’t have strong conviction about this one single number. When I look at the yield on the 10-Year Treasury, it broke out […]
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