Biden Out, Harris In – Does It Matter For The Markets?
Two weekends ago we had an assassination attempt on a former president. This past weekend the current president walks away from his incumbent race. And the U.S. is supposed to be the standard bearer for the world. Yeesh! I did learn something new about politics this weekend. All those who were reporting that President Biden would step down on Sunday afternoon actually knew what they were talking about and those folks have credibility. All those folks who vehemently and defiantly […]
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Date: July 22, 2024
Bears Making Some Noise – Or At Least Trying
Roughly a week ago, I downgraded my 1-3 month outlook on the stock market, citing a number of participation and sentiment concerns. The same day, we saw a once in a million to billion year event regarding the Russell 2000 and S&P 500. Since then, the small and mid cap stocks have strongly led at the expense of the mega caps, especially technology and AI. Over the past few days, that has morphed into the modest pullback I have written […]
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Date: July 19, 2024
BYE BYE Semiconductors, HELLO Small Caps! Generational Move!
Last Thursday, I wrote a blog downgrading my 1-3 month view of the stock market. That very day we saw a 6 sigma event or one in a million to billion year event that last occurred on October 10, 2008. My top concern had been eliminated which was the narrowness and diminishing participation in the rally. However, all concerns were not eliminated. While we did not make any major portfolio changes we did take some actions to harvest some acorns […]
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Date: July 17, 2024
Market Reaction To The Horrific Acts
With the unspeakable and heinous acts over the weekend, the presidential race has widened according to the polls taken. Additionally, the RNC convention begins tonight. This is important because it is likely that Donald Trump will take a commanding lead by the end of the week. It may be temporary, or not, but I fully expect the markets to pivot towards Trump 2.0 with stocks continuing the new theme of the “everything up market” that began last Thursday. Below is […]
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Date: July 15, 2024
HOLY GEEZ!
Thursday was a day for the ages. It was one of those days that you only see a few times in your lifetime. Yes, your entire lifetime! In mathematical terms it was supposedly a 6 sigma event, meaning that it should only happen once in a million to billion years. I added the word “supposedly” because in my 35-year career I have seen enough 6 sigma events to know that what is supposed to happen mathematically and what does happen […]
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Date: July 12, 2024
Changing My View On The Stock Market Over The Next 1-3 Months
As you know, I have been almost universally bullish since September 2022, having gone so far out on a limb to declare that a new bull market would begin in Q4 2022. 2023 was an epic year. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have continued that trend in 2024, the other major indices have not. This is not a new story, but one that has worsened. If you own Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, Costco, Meta, Lilly […]
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Date: July 10, 2024
Elder Care
Below is an article from Horsesmouth, an online publication for advisors that I subscribe to and read daily. I thought it was unique and important to share. Margaret Newcomb, 69, is a retired teacher, and she is trying to protect her retirement savings by caring for her 82-year-old husband, who has severe dementia. At times, he has wandered away from his home. She attaches a tag to his shoelace with her phone number in case he gets lost. Limitations in […]
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Date: July 5, 2024
Nvidia. Again?
I hope you had a good 4th of July. It was super quiet for us as our kids all had plans and my shoulder remains too painful to really do anything besides sit in a pool and let buoyancy make it feel better. For once, I am listening to the docs and my body and actually resting. Back to back days that the markets close at 1pm. I don’t ever recall seeing that. People always ask me why they just […]
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Date: July 5, 2024
Another Bear Bites The Dust
Coming into 2024 there were at least four big bears among Wall Street strategists, Mike Wilson, Julian Emmanuel, Tony Dwyer and Marko Kolanovic. All four had been very negative since at least August 2022 with Wilson being bearish since April 2021. All four strategists had forecast a down year for the stock market in 2023 which turned in one of the best years this century. Coming into 2024, they didn’t pivot to the bullish side. Wall Street is in the […]
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Date: July 3, 2024
Taking Stock Of The Major Indices As Q3 Begins
Happy July 1st! Today is the start of the new week, month, quarter and half. Seasonally, today is a strongly positive day and that tailwind carries through until next Monday. I thought we would take stock of the major stock market indices today. The Dow Industrials is first and it is really just mired in a range. The S&P 500 is next and it looks different from the Dow. This index is dominated by the AI stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, […]
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Date: July 1, 2024
