We learned this morning that January inflation data was hotter than expected. I know my readers are not surprised because that is my theme for early 2025. Inflation should moderate during the second half of the year. And it was hot enough that I am sure pundits will talk about a Fed rate hike instead of cut. I think that’s unfounded and unwise. Let’s look, yet again, at the S&P 500 below. Not much going on this week. It remains […]
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Friday’s action in the stock market saw the bears make a stand at precisely the moment they had to before the S&P 500 headed to new highs. Funny how that sometimes works. You can see on the far right side of the chart below how the bears have rejected the bulls with red at 6130, 6120 and now at 6100. That is three times with a lower level each time, meaning the bears are getting more aggressive. The behavior by […]
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Two straight weeks of blue Mondays followed by market bounces. The S&P 500 is just a good day away from new highs although my thinking has not changed that it would be more of selling opportunity that a buying of momentum one. That will change, but not before we see more meaningful downside to cleanse the greed and euphoria. I guess the S&P 500 could run a few percent in new highs, but I still think it needs damage to […]
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Tariffs on. Tariffs off. I sense this to be a theme going forward. The longer this lasts and the more times it happens, the more the markets will price in the outcome, whatever that may be. You already know my feelings about tariffs and protectionism. I won’t rehash that everyday. In my 2025 Fearless Forecast I wrote that one of my themes was that 2025 will fell worse than it actually is. Look at the S&P 500 below. It’s really […]
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Tariffs will dominate the news this week as President Trump followed through on his threats against China, Canada and Mexico. I have long been against tariffs as an economic tool and I remain that way. No country can tariff its way to prosperity. No one wins a trade war. There are only losers. Yes. I fully understand that other countries do not play by the rules. But I am a free trader. I seek trade deals not protectionism. For the […]
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Since Monday’s plunge the stock market has recovered “nicely”. However, the S&P 500 hasn’t gone anywhere in two months. The NASDAQ 100 either. Lots of chop in a trading range which is pretty much what I laid out in my 2025 Fearless Forecast, the year momentum died. Up, down, sideways, lots of frustration. I see it in our models. Some are full bore exposed at 200% and 300%. Others have very low exposure. And they’re moving all the time. It’s […]
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The model for today’s Fed day is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. A high probability long trade was setting up nicely until yesterday’s rally. Now it’s just a coin flip. Jay Powell and the FOMC will take no action today although he may offer a hawkish pause where rates stay the same but his rhetoric is hawkish. The 2-Year Note currently sits at 4.21% with the Fed Funds Rate at 4.33%. That is as neutral […]
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Welcome back to a new week. I rooted for the Commanders. They lost. I rooted harder for the Bills. They lost. I hate the Eagles and the Chiefs. I rooted for the UCONN men. They lost. And I was so looking forward to visiting clients in Florida today where it will be 80 degrees. I think I have the flu and I canceled my trip. It’s okay. I can handle all the adversity! On Friday the S&P 500 hit fresh, […]
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Finishing up the equities portion of the 2025 Fearless Forecast, let’s turn to sectors. Last year, I said that technology would not lead again, but also would not lag. And it finished in the middle. I liked financials, healthcare, biotechnology, energy and REITs. While financials led the market, the other sector picks lagged. For 2025, I see the same impact by tech. And I am going back to the well with biotech, energy and healthcare plus regional banks and retail […]
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