Date: August 13, 2012

All Eyes and Ears on the Global Central Banks

Here is the link from Friday’s segment: 

Nothing has changed regarding the outlook for stocks.  I think we are in a generally benign period for equities that has been following the typical presidential election year pattern of a Q1 rally, a springtime low and summer rally to a peak.  If that continues to hold true, we should see another good bottom in September or October and then rally into year-end.  I am sure the market will throw some doubt into that along the way!

Over the coming month or so, we should hear from the Chinese that they are going to stimulate their economy a bit more.  The Fed has their annual retreat in Jackson Hole in two weeks followed by a very important meeting on September 12 and 13 where more stimulus should be announced.  September 12 is also the date when the German courts will rule on the constitutionality of using funds for bailouts.  And of course, the markets are waiting on the ECB to unveil another round of bond buying to help Spain.

So there’s lots on the calendar before we even get to the November elections!

After the stock market declines and potentially world ending news during the summers of 2011, 2010, 2008, 2007 and 2006, it’s a welcome change that this summer has been without significant volatility.  As we head into September, that should change a bit, but nothing extreme. 



Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital