This feels like a family car trip with one of the kids constantly asking, “are we there yet?”
Much of what I have to say remains the same. Stocks have almost perfectly followed my post mini-crash scenario since August 24 and they are now in the zone for a possible successful retest of those lows between now and say, October 15. With the major indices opening sharply higher today, talk will once again focus on IF we have seen the bottom and this is day one of the rally.
Last Friday, we faced a similar set up, but I opined that the odds did not favor a low. Today, with the S&P 500 and S&P 400 retesting their closing lows from August and the Russell 2000 undercutting it, the odds now move to 50/50 that the final low has been seen. Even money is not an investing bet I would normally take as I typically like the odds to be in my favor. With that said, I think it’s better to pay a little higher prices than buy right here without an edge. In the end, I still think that another selling wave hits over the next few weeks.
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