Date: July 7, 2014

Bull Market’s Peak

The stock market hits the new week with a tiny headwind from post holiday seasonality. Last Thursday’s solid employment report finally got at least some bulls to celebrate, but it’s still very muted. At Dow 17,000 after a 10,000 point rally in the market, you would think that the majority would be in a good mood, even giddy. But that’s just not the case.

Before the bull market ends, history suggests a 10%+ correction, which we haven’t seen yet. And before the 10%+ correction, we are supposed to see a 4-6% pullback, which we haven’t seen. Bull markets typically do not peak out of nowhere and certainly not with the solid foundation this one still has.

I continue to scratch my head when I speak with, watch or listen to all this negative market chatter. At some point, probably sooner than later, we will have some weakness in stocks. Maybe that’s 500 points or 1000 points or even 1500 points. But the bull market should not end out of the blue without warning.

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Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital