Earlier this week, I spelled out three possible scenarios for stocks with one very bullish, one mildly bullish and one bearish. I gave most weight to the mildly bullish one and least weight to the bearish one. Right now, stocks are marching more towards the very bullish scenario although the Dow breached the lows I had discussed in the mildly bullish scenario.
Looking at the five major indices, the Dow needs to close above 17,850 to set up a run to new highs and break the backs of the bears. The S&P 500’s number is 2065 while the S&P 400 is hitting fresh all-time highs as I type this. The Russell 2000 is already above its line in the sand and just needs to close well to stomp on the bears. Finally, the Nasdaq 100’s number is 4295, still more than 1% away and playing catch up.
Unless the major indices immediately reverse, and there is the employment report on Friday, the bulls should have enough juice to push higher with most indices scoring all-time highs this month.
Anything to worry about? With the bull market being 71 months old and more than 3 years without a full fledged correction, risk is there. The three key sectors, semis, banks and transports are not leading and don’t look powerfully constructive. Defense remains in charge, not exactly a ringing endorsement.
However, if the Dow sees 5 straight closes above 18,000, that will set up 20,000 as the next target in 2015.
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