Date: July 10, 2024

Changing My View On The Stock Market Over The Next 1-3 Months

As you know, I have been almost universally bullish since September 2022, having gone so far out on a limb to declare that a new bull market would begin in Q4 2022. 2023 was an epic year. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have continued that trend in 2024, the other major indices have not. This is not a new story, but one that has worsened.

If you own Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, Costco, Meta, Lilly and Netflix, this probably seems like the greatest bull market in history. The other 3000 stocks not so much. Lots of stocks going sideways to mild lower to collapsing like Nike, Starbucks and Lululemon.

Sentiment is very bullish. I am seeing greed, confidence and even giddiness. Bearish Wall Street strategists have all but disappeared. I am concerned.

As such, I am changing my view of the stock market over the next 1-3 months. I think it’s going to get a little murky with volatility increasing. A 4-7% pullback should fix that. If that happens, we should get another leg higher in the bull market into 2025. If stocks race higher from here, the odds of a bear market in 2025 will go up significantly.

On Tuesday we bought WRBY, RYMIX, more CHWY and more RYZAX. We sold SMPIX, RYAVX and some PLTR.


Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital