Dow 18,000 Next as Twitter, Investors, Advisors and Media Root for Bears
Small Caps Play Catch Up in BIG Way
When we last left off, the major stock market indices were all playing nicely together except for the small cap Russell 2000 which had seen a full fledged 10% correction, but was beginning to bounce. The performance of that one index was a key ingredient to the bears’ negative stance on the market. At that time, here and on the blog, I dismissed the Russell’s warning and went so far as to call for all time highs before long.
On the first day of the new month and quarter, the Russell 2000 joined the S&P 500, S&P 400, Nasdaq 100 and Dow to score fresh all time highs. At the same time, the New York Stock Exchange Advance/Decline Line, which is a barometer of health on the NYSE also saw a new all time high along with many other sectors and indicators. This continues to be intermediate and long-term positive for the bull market.
More shorter-term, the market can best be described as grinding or creeping higher day after day. When you are on the correct side, there is nothing better. This kind of market has been seen many times since 2009 but rarely before that. The most common ending is a sharp and fast decline that wipes out a lot of gains in short order but does not end the bull market. At some point that scenario will become more likely.
The Market People Love to Hate
Remember, as I have now said for two years, this bull market may be old and wrinkly, but certainly not unhealthy or about to die. It continues to be the most unloved and disavowed bull market of my lifetime. Instead of friends asking me for the latest or greatest “hot” tip which I would expect at Dow 17,000, I am frequently pushed to opine as to when this all ends or when the big correction is coming.
And it’s not just individual investors. On a daily basis I speak with other advisors as well as the media. It really surprises me how many peers have been negative, are negative and will be negative. This is a market where people in my industry should be raising lots of money. Markets have been “easy”, meaning there has not been any significant downside since June 2012.
I think it’s very hard to run an investment management business being a perma-bear or holding on to the belief that although stocks have rallied, they remain in a secular (long-term) bear market that began in 2000 with the Dow at 11,750. That’s crazy in my humble opinion.
On the media side, they may have finally realized that I have a better face for radio than TV, but it certainly feels like they are not as interested in my bullish stance anymore now that the market has rallied. I have lost several opportunities lately because my opinion wasn’t bearish or I wouldn’t forecast some kind of doom (my word) on the horizon.
You can accuse the Fed of manipulation or supporting the market or anything you want. But the reality is that this has been one of the most powerful bull markets of all time. From my seat, as long as investors ask questions about the downside, advisors are bearish, the media only wants to sell negativity and my Twitter feed is full of bears, the bull market will live on.
How It Usually Ends
Yes, the market is 33 months from its last 10% correction and some surveys show complacency, but bull markets do not usually end with a whimper. There are typically many warning signs long before the bear comes out of its cave. Today, we have almost none. Additionally, the market historically sees a 10% correction where the end of the bull market is claimed by the masses, only to see yet another rally to new highs take shape. We haven’t even seen the correction yet. And before the 10% correction, there should be a modest 2-4% pullback.
Don’t get me wrong. Investors need to remain vigilant and active and on top of their holdings. Or hire someone like me to do it! (Shameless plug) Throwing caution to the wind and taking a “get me in at any price” mentality will likely end in ruin. Eventually, stocks will pullback, probably sooner than later, and finally correct 10% or more. But as I have been saying for years, any and all weakness remains a buying opportunity until proven otherwise. These kinds of markets are rare and should be fun. It’s too bad that so many can only see negativity.
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