Date: June 28, 2023

End of The Week, Month, Quarter & First Half Showing Opportunity

Over the weekend I published a video with a cornucopia of thoughts about the Fed, recession, yield curve and the markets. Towards the end of the video I offered that the stock market should bottom immediately, meaning in the coming day or so. And you know from the trades I post that we took advantage of the small bout of weakness to buy and rotate portfolios and get stopped out of a gold trade again.

Seasonally, the stock market is in a sweet spot. The next week or so is the strongest period of the summer. This is the period I have been writing and commenting about as a possible opportunity to lighten up or take some risk off the table. This is coming from someone who has been full bore, risk on for essentially the first 6 months of the year. And it’s been a super fun first half of the year, at least for those of us who weren’t holed up in a bomb shelter screaming about the sky falling.

Like any market, I can always find something to poke holes in or indicators that concern me. In this case, we still now that the banks stink. But, I do think the bottom is in and they will trade in a range for a while. I would buy weakness and sell strength, which I have kinda, sorta done, justĀ  not as well as I would like.

As the markets move into the end of the week, month, quarter and first half, it’s hard to imagine too much damage to the 7-10 stocks that have been monsters. Maybe on the last day. If folks are selling I think they will sell more elsewhere and I am keenly watching the stocks and sectors that could get sold. That’s where I am thinking the next opportunity lies. Gold and the stocks look like they are bottoming, sooner than later. Stay tuned.

On Monday we bought XLC, RYTPMX, PMPIX and more MTUM. On Tuesday we bought XLV, DOMO, DXHYX and IBM. We sold RYPMX, PMPIX and levered S&P 500.


Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital