Date: July 22, 2016

FOX Business TODAY & Dow 20K

I am going to be on Fox Business’ The Intelligence Report with Trish Regan today (Friday) at 2:50 pm edt discussing my forecast for stocks and the markets, especially with the Fed set to meet next Tuesday & Wednesday. Trish is heading back from Cleveland so Ashley Webster is filling in.

It has been truly amazing what a little rally has done to market sentiment. At the BREXIT bottom, as the pundits, masses and media all panicked and headed for the hills with cash, our models could not have been any more positive and stronger. I pounded the table to commit cash and resist the urge to sell. I laid out a very bullish road map which was the most positive forecast anyone could find.

Even that wasn’t bullish enough!

To me, there was only one path post-BREXIT; stocks were going to fresh all-time highs this quarter on the way to my longstanding target of 20,000. Thank you to the Dow and S&P 500 for cooperating already. Look for the S&P 400 to follow shortly. Today, after a very broad-based and historic rally, the pundits and masses are suddenly positive and looking to buy. The clown parade is full of clowns!

Leadership has most definitely changed from the purely defensive camp to more offensive with more changes on the way. And high yield (junk) bonds continue to lead and exhibit strength. This is one fun market.

As we all know though, trees don’t grow to the sky and stocks will likely pause to digest or even pullback a few percent here and there. I do not believe the stock market will see any significant downside here. It looks like weakness should be limited to the low single digits on a percentage basis at most. Could we see 4-5% down? Sure. However, there are so many investors waiting to buy that dips are likely to be shallow and bought fairly quickly until proven otherwise.

Finally, I want to thank FOX61 in CT for accepting my suggestion to do a BREXIT segment on the local news. I thought it was really well done and focused on the mom & pop investor. Here is the link.

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Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital