Date: April 24, 2023

Huge 10 Days Coming for Earnings

This is a huge week for Q1 earnings with many high profile technology names like Google and Microsoft reporting. Apple is not until May 4th. When the big names report there are usually outsized moves in those stocks like we saw in Tesla last week. It matters because the mega cap stocks have very large weightings in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. So while the vast majority of stocks could do one thing, a big move by Google and/or Microsoft could overwhelm the troops.

Take a look at Google below. What I see is that while the major stock market indices saw their bear market lows in October 2022, Google did not bottom until November, meaning it was even weaker. So its rally from the low $80s has been surprisingly strong.

Let’s turn to Microsoft. It looks a lot like Google above. Both stocks did not bottom until well after the stock market did.

When I look at Nvidia below I see a stock that bottomed coincidentally with the stock market in October. Its 250%+ rise has been nothing short extraterrestrial. It defies gravity.

Yes, of course, I just cherry picked a few mega cap stocks. And I am sure you can counter with others that acted differently. It is going to be an interesting two weeks and this period of no volatility should end right about now.

On Friday we bought MU, FFEB, LABU and more levered NDX.


Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital